From 42dc183b3a5eaa53f57843ec29711c4fa733e643 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 27 May 2025 10:23:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 01/15] aca stuff --- us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb | 75 +++ us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb | 464 ++++++++++++++++++ .../medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb | 84 +++- us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 56 ++- 4 files changed, 639 insertions(+), 40 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb create mode 100644 us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63255b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,75 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 3, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "TypeError", + "evalue": "Microsimulation.calculate() got an unexpected keyword argument 'year'", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[3], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m aca \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43myear\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2024\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n", + "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m: Microsimulation.calculate() got an unexpected keyword argument 'year'" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "aca = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.12.8" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e07fd61 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,464 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "\n", + "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n", + " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n", + " }\n", + "}, country_id=\"us\")\n", + "\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 3, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "reformed_aca_enrollment = reformed.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "difference_aca_enrollment = reformed_aca_enrollment - baseline_aca_enrollment" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "33.22788410880193" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "difference_aca_enrollment/1e6\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "38.4306100712353" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "71.65849418003722" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "reformed_aca_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 30, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_chip_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"is_chip_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "reformed_chip_enrollment = reformed.calculate(\"is_chip_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "difference_chip_enrollment = reformed_chip_enrollment - baseline_chip_enrollment" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "difference_chip_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_esi = baseline.calculate(\"has_esi\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "reformed_has_esi = reformed.calculate(\"has_esi\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "difference_has_esi = reformed_has_esi - baseline_has_esi\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "difference_has_esi/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 12, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment24 = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2024).sum()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 13, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "70.86273435735636" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 13, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment24/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 14, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment24 = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2024).sum()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "96.20048595727322" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_medicaid_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"is_medicaid_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_medicaid_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "140.78688548422448" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_esi/1e6\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20.269165984168318" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage24 = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2024).sum()\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage24/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20.60345003861629" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage26 = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage26/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 27, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20.720238717416315" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 27, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage27 = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2027).sum()\n", + "has_marketplace_health_coverage27/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 41, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "63.9239444720358" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 41, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_medicare = baseline.calculate(\"is_medicare_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "\n", + "baseline_medicare/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 38, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "347.5581846564728" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 42, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "any_coverage = baseline_has_esi + baseline_aca_enrollment + baseline_chip_enrollment + baseline_medicaid_enrollment + baseline_medicare\n", + "\n", + "any_coverage/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 43, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "2024 0.05176565423883876\n", + "2025 1.0\n", + "2026 0.05176565417753795\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "for y in (2024, 2025, 2026):\n", + " cov = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=y)\n", + " wt = baseline.calculate(\"person_weight\", map_to=\"person\", period=y)\n", + " print(y, (cov * wt).sum() / wt.sum()) # ~0.06 in 20" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 44, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Variable exchcov25 does not exist.", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[44], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m exch25 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mexchcov25\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2025\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28mprint\u001b[39m(exch25\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvalue_counts(dropna\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28;01mFalse\u001b[39;00m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mhead())\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable exchcov25 does not exist." + ] + } + ], + "source": [] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.12.8" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb index b90fc03..c8a6841 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 37, + "execution_count": 54, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 38, + "execution_count": 55, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ " \"2026\": 40 # Primary earner, age 40 in 2026\n", " },\n", " \"employment_income\": {\n", - " \"2026\": 45000 # Annual employment income of $45,000\n", + " \"2026\": 53300 \n", " }\n", " },\n", " \"your partner\": {\n", @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ " \"2026\": 40 \n", " },\n", " \"employment_income\": {\n", - " \"2026\": 0 \n", + " \"2026\": 53299 #Household income is 1 belo2 400% fpl for 2025 \n", " }\n", " },\n", " \"your first dependent\": {\n", @@ -103,7 +103,10 @@ " ],\n", " \"state_name\": {\n", " \"2026\": \"NY\" # Located in New York state\n", - " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"county_fips\": {\n", + " \"2026\": \"36061\"\n", + " }\n", " }\n", " }\n", "}" @@ -111,7 +114,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 39, + "execution_count": 56, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -123,7 +126,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 40, + "execution_count": 57, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -134,21 +137,26 @@ "chip_eligibility = simulation.calculate(\"is_chip_eligible\", period=2026).tolist()\n", "\n", "# Calculate ACA Premium Tax Credits for the tax unit and convert to list\n", - "aca = simulation.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", period=2026).tolist()\n" + "aca = simulation.calculate(\"premium_tax_credit\", period=2026).tolist()\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "#MTR with healthcare benefits\n", + "mtr = simulation.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate\", period=2026).tolist()\n", + "mtrh = simulation.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\", period=2026).tolist()" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 41, + "execution_count": 58, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "[True, True, False]" + "[False, False, False]" ] }, - "execution_count": 41, + "execution_count": 58, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -160,7 +168,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 42, + "execution_count": 59, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -169,7 +177,7 @@ "[False, False, True]" ] }, - "execution_count": 42, + "execution_count": 59, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -181,16 +189,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 43, + "execution_count": 60, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "[0.0]" + "[10993.09375]" ] }, - "execution_count": 43, + "execution_count": 60, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -199,11 +207,51 @@ "# Display the results\n", "aca" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 61, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "[0.281499981880188, 0.281499981880188, 0.0]" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 61, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "mtr" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 62, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "[11.274593353271484, 11.274593353271484, 0.0]" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 62, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "mtrh" + ] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { - "display_name": "pe", + "display_name": "base", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, @@ -217,7 +265,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.10.14" + "version": "3.12.2" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index 8b27a19..c8b7f46 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 80, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -16,7 +25,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 81, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -52,7 +61,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 82, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -103,17 +112,20 @@ " }\n", " },\n", " \"households\": {\n", - " \"your household\": {\n", - " \"members\": [\n", - " \"you\",\n", - " \"your partner\",\n", - " \"your first dependent\"\n", - " ],\n", - " \"state_name\": {\n", - " \"2026\": \"NY\"\n", - " }\n", + " \"your household\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\", \n", + " \"your first dependent\" # All live in the same household\n", + " ],\n", + " \"state_name\": {\n", + " \"2026\": \"NY\" # Located in New York state\n", + " },\n", + " \"county_fips\": {\n", + " \"2026\": \"36061\"\n", " }\n", - " },\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", " \"marital_units\": {\n", " \"your marital unit\": {\n", " \"members\": [\n", @@ -146,7 +158,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 83, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -225,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 84, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -247,7 +259,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 85, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -281,7 +293,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 86, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -293,7 +305,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 87, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -27870,7 +27882,7 @@ } ], "source": [ - "# Create Vermont graph\n", + "# Create NY graph\n", "fig_vermont = go.Figure()\n", "\n", "# Add baseline traces (solid lines)\n", @@ -28054,7 +28066,7 @@ ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { - "display_name": "pe", + "display_name": "base", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, @@ -28068,7 +28080,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.10.14" + "version": "3.12.2" } }, "nbformat": 4, From b581f1b8732c1bdd6dff94a56c2feac9419a2c49 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 27 May 2025 14:32:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 02/15] charts --- .../medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb | 47 + us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 16764 +++++++++++++++- us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb | 186 + 3 files changed, 16934 insertions(+), 63 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb index c8a6841..fca75f2 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb @@ -247,6 +247,53 @@ "source": [ "mtrh" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", + "\n", + "# ---------- New York: family of 3 ----------\n", + "fig_ny = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "# Baseline (solid)\n", + "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_ny,\n", + " y=baseline_ny_health_net_income,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Health Net Income (Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2) # use your palette constant\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Reform (dotted)\n", + "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_ny,\n", + " y=reform_ny_health_net_income,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Layout\n", + "fig_ny.update_layout(\n", + " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n", + "\n", + "fig_ny.show()\n" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index c8b7f46..90129ad 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -2,18 +2,9 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 1, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", - " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -25,7 +16,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -61,12 +52,12 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "\n", - "situation_vermont = {\n", + "situation_texas = {\n", " \"people\": {\n", " \"you\": {\n", " \"age\": {\n", @@ -158,7 +149,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -237,18 +228,18 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ - "simulation_vermont = Simulation(\n", - " situation=situation_vermont,\n", + "simulation_new_york = Simulation(\n", + " situation=situation_new_york,\n", ")\n", "simulation_texas = Simulation(\n", " situation=situation_texas,\n", ")\n", - "reformed_simulation_vermont = Simulation(\n", - " situation=situation_vermont,\n", + "reformed_simulation_new_york = Simulation(\n", + " situation=situation_new_york,\n", " reform=reform,\n", ")\n", "reformed_simulation_texas = Simulation(\n", @@ -259,32 +250,43 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ - "household_income_vermont = simulation_vermont.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "baseline_vermont_per_capita_chip = simulation_vermont.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "baseline_vermont_aca_ptc = simulation_vermont.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "baseline_vermont_medicaid_cost = simulation_vermont.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_new_york_aca_ptc = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "reform_new_york_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_new_york_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_new_york_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "\n", "\n", - "reform_vermont_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_vermont.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "reform_vermont_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_vermont.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "reform_vermont_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_vermont.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "\n", "# Get household-level values for Texas\n", "household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_per_capita_chip = simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_aca_ptc = simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_medicaid_cost = simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", "\n", "reform_texas_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_texas_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_texas_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", "\n", "# Calculate total benefits for each scenario\n", - "baseline_vermont_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(baseline_vermont_per_capita_chip, baseline_vermont_aca_ptc, baseline_vermont_medicaid_cost)]\n", - "reform_vermont_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(reform_vermont_per_capita_chip, reform_vermont_aca_ptc, reform_vermont_medicaid_cost)]\n", + "baseline_new_york_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip, baseline_new_york_aca_ptc, baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost)]\n", + "reform_new_york_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(reform_new_york_per_capita_chip, reform_new_york_aca_ptc, reform_new_york_medicaid_cost)]\n", "\n", "baseline_texas_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(baseline_texas_per_capita_chip, baseline_texas_aca_ptc, baseline_texas_medicaid_cost)]\n", "reform_texas_total = [sum(x) for x in zip(reform_texas_per_capita_chip, reform_texas_aca_ptc, reform_texas_medicaid_cost)]\n", @@ -293,7 +295,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -305,7 +307,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -27883,77 +27885,77 @@ ], "source": [ "# Create NY graph\n", - "fig_vermont = go.Figure()\n", + "fig_new_york = go.Figure()\n", "\n", "# Add baseline traces (solid lines)\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=baseline_vermont_per_capita_chip, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='CHIP (Baseline)', \n", " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=baseline_vermont_aca_ptc, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=baseline_new_york_aca_ptc, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='ACA PTC (Baseline)', \n", " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=baseline_vermont_medicaid_cost, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='Medicaid (Baseline)', \n", " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", "# Add reform traces (dotted lines)\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=reform_vermont_per_capita_chip, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=reform_new_york_per_capita_chip, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='CHIP (Reform)', \n", " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=reform_vermont_aca_ptc, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=reform_new_york_aca_ptc, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='ACA PTC (Reform)', \n", " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=reform_vermont_medicaid_cost, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=reform_new_york_medicaid_cost, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='Medicaid (Reform)', \n", " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", "# Add total lines\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=baseline_vermont_total, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=baseline_new_york_total, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='Total Benefits (Baseline)', \n", " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_vermont.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_vermont, \n", - " y=reform_vermont_total, \n", + "fig_new_york.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york, \n", + " y=reform_new_york_total, \n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='Total Benefits (Reform)', \n", " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", "# Update layout\n", - "fig_vermont.update_layout(\n", + "fig_new_york.update_layout(\n", " title='New York Household (Family of 3) - Program Benefits by Income Level',\n", " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Benefit Amount',\n", @@ -28048,20 +28050,16656 @@ "\n", "# Apply your format_fig function if it exists\n", "# If you don't have this function defined, you can remove these lines\n", - "fig_vermont = format_fig(fig_vermont)\n", + "fig_new_york = format_fig(fig_new_york)\n", "fig_texas = format_fig(fig_texas)\n", "\n", "# Display the figures\n", - "fig_vermont.show()\n", + "fig_new_york.show()\n", "fig_texas.show()" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], - "source": [] + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { + "config": { + "plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly" + }, + "data": [ + { + "line": { + "color": "#616161", + "width": 2 + }, + "mode": "lines", + "name": "Health Net Income (Baseline)", + "type": "scatter", + "x": [ + 0, + 549.1314697265625, + 1098.262939453125, + 1647.3944091796875, + 2196.52587890625, + 2745.6572265625, + 3294.788818359375, + 3843.920166015625, + 4393.0517578125, + 4942.18310546875, + 5491.314453125, + 6040.4462890625, + 6589.57763671875, + 7138.708984375, + 7687.84033203125, + 8236.9716796875, + 8786.103515625, + 9335.2353515625, + 9884.3662109375, + 10433.4970703125, + 10982.62890625, + 11531.7607421875, + 12080.892578125, + 12630.0234375, + 13179.1552734375, + 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constant\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Reform (dotted)\n", + "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Layout\n", + "fig_ny.update_layout(\n", + " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n", + "\n", + "fig_ny.show()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + 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Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_tx = format_fig(fig_tx)\n", + "\n", + "fig_tx.show()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 28, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { + "config": { + "plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly" + }, + "data": [ + { + "line": { + "color": "#616161", + "width": 2 + }, + "mode": "lines", + "name": "Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)", + "type": "scatter", + "x": [ + 0, + 549.1314697265625, + 1098.262939453125, + 1647.3944091796875, + 2196.52587890625, + 2745.6572265625, + 3294.788818359375, + 3843.920166015625, + 4393.0517578125, + 4942.18310546875, + 5491.314453125, + 6040.4462890625, + 6589.57763671875, + 7138.708984375, + 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"#EBF0F8", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + } + } + }, + "title": { + "text": "New York Household (Family of 3) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income" + }, + "width": 800, + "xaxis": { + "range": [ + 0, + 150000 + ], + "tickformat": "$,.0f", + "title": { + "text": "Household Income" + } + }, + "yaxis": { + "tickformat": ".0%", + "title": { + "text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)" + } + } + } + } + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ---------- Pull the inputs ----------\n", + "household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", + " \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", + " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", + " map_to=\"household\",\n", + " period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", + " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", + " map_to=\"household\",\n", + " period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Reform)',\n", + " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Layout\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr.update_layout(\n", + " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 150_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes MTR is in decimal form (e.g., 0.42 → 42%)\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional formatting helper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr = format_fig(fig_new_york_mtr)\n", + "\n", + "# Display\n", + "fig_new_york_mtr.show()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { + "config": { + "plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly" + }, + "data": [ + { + "line": { + "color": "#616161", + "width": 2 + }, + "mode": "lines", + "name": "Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)", + "type": "scatter", + "x": [ + 0, + 549.1314697265625, + 1098.262939453125, + 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"#2a3f5f" + }, + "geo": { + "bgcolor": "white", + "lakecolor": "white", + "landcolor": "white", + "showlakes": true, + "showland": true, + "subunitcolor": "#C8D4E3" + }, + "hoverlabel": { + "align": "left" + }, + "hovermode": "closest", + "mapbox": { + "style": "light" + }, + "paper_bgcolor": "white", + "plot_bgcolor": "white", + "polar": { + "angularaxis": { + "gridcolor": "#EBF0F8", + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "ticks": "" + }, + "bgcolor": "white", + "radialaxis": { + "gridcolor": "#EBF0F8", + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "ticks": "" + } + }, + "scene": { + "xaxis": { + "backgroundcolor": "white", + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "gridwidth": 2, + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "showbackground": true, + "ticks": "", + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8" + }, + "yaxis": { + "backgroundcolor": "white", + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "gridwidth": 2, + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "showbackground": true, + "ticks": "", + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8" + }, + "zaxis": { + "backgroundcolor": "white", + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "gridwidth": 2, + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "showbackground": true, + "ticks": "", + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8" + } + }, + "shapedefaults": { + "line": { + "color": "#2a3f5f" + } + }, + "ternary": { + "aaxis": { + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "linecolor": "#A2B1C6", + "ticks": "" + }, + "baxis": { + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "linecolor": "#A2B1C6", + "ticks": "" + }, + "bgcolor": "white", + "caxis": { + "gridcolor": "#DFE8F3", + "linecolor": "#A2B1C6", + "ticks": "" + } + }, + "title": { + "x": 0.05 + }, + "xaxis": { + "automargin": true, + "gridcolor": "#EBF0F8", + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "ticks": "", + "title": { + "standoff": 15 + }, + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + }, + "yaxis": { + "automargin": true, + "gridcolor": "#EBF0F8", + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "ticks": "", + "title": { + "standoff": 15 + }, + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + } + } + }, + "title": { + "text": "Texas Household (Couple) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income" + }, + "width": 800, + "xaxis": { + "range": [ + 0, + 400000 + ], + "tickformat": "$,.0f", + "title": { + "text": "Household Income" + } + }, + "yaxis": { + "tickformat": ".0%", + "title": { + "text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)" + } + } + } + } + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ---------- Pull the inputs ----------\n", + "household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\n", + " \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\n", + " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", + " map_to=\"household\",\n", + " period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\n", + " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", + " map_to=\"household\",\n", + " period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n", + "fig_texas_mtr = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n", + "fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_texas,\n", + " y=baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n", + "fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_texas,\n", + " y=reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Reform)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Layout\n", + "fig_texas_mtr.update_layout(\n", + " title='Texas Household (Couple) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 150_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes rate is in decimal form (0.42 → 42 %)\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_texas_mtr = format_fig(fig_texas_mtr)\n", + "\n", + "# Display\n", + "fig_texas_mtr.show()\n" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b86003c --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "[ 29898.66 31086.055 32273.451 33560.2 34687.48 35676.727\n", + " 36702.16 37731.195 38760.23 39785.664 40771.41 41747.367\n", + " 43066.617 43981.58 44722.527 45440.406 46161.883 46848.56\n", + " 47526.97 48203.582 48882.895 49562.207 50237.914 50917.227\n", + " 51596.54 52275.85 52951.562 53630.87 54310.184 54967.957\n", + " 55425.582 55885.914 56273.074 56621.46 56971.11 57320.754\n", + " 57669.508 57573.65 57968.11 57506.074 58099.812 58693.555\n", + " 59287.293 59880.098 60471.2 61062.305 61653.414 61758.94\n", + " 62350.05 62941.152 63532.26 71065.47 71525.13 71979.625\n", + " 72430.734 72966.266 73629.625 74289.61 74946.22 75599.445\n", + " 76249.31 76870.08 77512.77 78152.09 78788.05 79420.625\n", + " 80049.83 80675.65 81298.11 81917.195 82532.9 83145.234\n", + " 83754.2 84329.01 84954.2 85600.38 86244.44 86886.41\n", + " 87526.25 88163.984 88799.62 89433.15 90064.56 90693.87\n", + " 91321.07 91923.76 92546.48 93167.09 93785.59 94401.984\n", + " 95016.266 95628.45 96238.52 96846.484 97452.336 98056.086\n", + " 98657.72 99231.68 99828.836 100528.234 101227.66 101927.06\n", + " 102626.46 109805.92 110498.31 111174.2 111850.086 112525.97\n", + " 113201.86 113877.734 114553.625 115213.01 115888.89 116564.78\n", + " 117240.67 117916.56 118592.445 119268.32 119944.22 120620.09\n", + " 121295.984 121912.06 122482.53 123053.016 123639.984 124226.96\n", + " 124813.93 125400.91 125987.875 126574.86 127161.83 127748.805\n", + " 128335.78 128922.75 129509.72 130096.695 130683.68 131270.64\n", + " 131857.62 132444.6 133031.56 133618.55 134205.52 134792.5\n", + " 135379.47 135966.44 136553.42 137140.38 137727.36 138314.34\n", + " 138904.42 139498.42 140092.4 140686.4 141280.4 141874.39\n", + " 142468.39 143062.38 143656.38 144250.38 144844.36 145438.36\n", + " 146032.36 146626.34 147220.34 147814.33 148408.34 149002.33\n", + " 149657.8 150317.16 150688.62 151325.7 151962.78 152599.83\n", + " 153236.9 153873.95 154511.03 155148.1 155785.16 156422.23\n", + " 157059.27 157696.36 158333.42 158970.48 159607.56 160244.61\n", + " 160881.69 161518.75 162155.81 162792.89 163429.95 164067.02\n", + " 164704.1 165341.12 165978.22 166615.28 167252.34 167889.42\n", + " 168526.45 169163.53 ]\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "situation = {\n", + " \"people\": {\n", + " \"you\": {\n", + " \"age\": {\n", + " \"2025\": 40\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"your partner\": {\n", + " \"age\": {\n", + " \"2025\": 40\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"your first dependent\": {\n", + " \"age\": {\n", + " \"2025\": 3\n", + " }\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"families\": {\n", + " \"your family\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\",\n", + " \"your first dependent\"\n", + " ]\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"marital_units\": {\n", + " \"your marital unit\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\"\n", + " ]\n", + " },\n", + " \"your first dependent's marital unit\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"your first dependent\"\n", + " ],\n", + " \"marital_unit_id\": {\n", + " \"2025\": 1\n", + " }\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"tax_units\": {\n", + " \"your tax unit\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\",\n", + " \"your first dependent\"\n", + " ]\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"spm_units\": {\n", + " \"your household\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\",\n", + " \"your first dependent\"\n", + " ]\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"households\": {\n", + " \"your household\": {\n", + " \"members\": [\n", + " \"you\",\n", + " \"your partner\",\n", + " \"your first dependent\"\n", + " ],\n", + " \"state_name\": {\n", + " \"2025\": \"NY\"\n", + " },\n", + " \"county_fips\": {\n", + " \"2025\": \"36061\"\n", + " }\n", + " }\n", + " },\n", + " \"axes\": [\n", + " [\n", + " {\n", + " \"name\": \"employment_income\",\n", + " \"count\": 200,\n", + " \"min\": 0,\n", + " \"max\": 200000\n", + " }\n", + " ]\n", + " ]\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "simulation = Simulation(\n", + " situation=situation,\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits = simulation.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\", 2025)\n", + "print(marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits)" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.12.8" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} From a031407cf568ce655110684ae1035297ac170682 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 27 May 2025 14:32:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 03/15] even more charts --- us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb | 30 ++-- .../medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb | 16 ++- us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 4 +- us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb | 136 +++++++++++++----- 4 files changed, 136 insertions(+), 50 deletions(-) diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb index 63255b3..6f0944a 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb @@ -31,23 +31,31 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "aca = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { - "ename": "TypeError", - "evalue": "Microsimulation.calculate() got an unexpected keyword argument 'year'", - "output_type": "error", - "traceback": [ - "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", - "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[3], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m aca \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43myear\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2024\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n", - "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m: Microsimulation.calculate() got an unexpected keyword argument 'year'" - ] + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20.457362207669945" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ - "aca = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)" + "aca.sum()/1e6" ] } ], diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb index fca75f2..77a8d6d 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_calculation_example.ipynb @@ -250,9 +250,21 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 63, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "NameError", + "evalue": "name 'household_income_ny' is not defined", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[63], line 8\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m fig_ny \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m go\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mFigure()\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Baseline (solid)\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m fig_ny\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39madd_trace(go\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mScatter(\n\u001b[0;32m----> 8\u001b[0m x\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[43mhousehold_income_ny\u001b[49m,\n\u001b[1;32m 9\u001b[0m y\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mbaseline_ny_health_net_income,\n\u001b[1;32m 10\u001b[0m mode\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mlines\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[1;32m 11\u001b[0m name\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mHealth Net Income (Baseline)\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[1;32m 12\u001b[0m line\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28mdict\u001b[39m(color\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mDARK_GRAY, width\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m) \u001b[38;5;66;03m# use your palette constant\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m ))\n\u001b[1;32m 15\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Reform (dotted)\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 16\u001b[0m fig_ny\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39madd_trace(go\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mScatter(\n\u001b[1;32m 17\u001b[0m x\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mhousehold_income_ny,\n\u001b[1;32m 18\u001b[0m y\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mreform_ny_health_net_income,\n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 21\u001b[0m line\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28mdict\u001b[39m(color\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mDARK_GRAY, width\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m, dash\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdot\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 22\u001b[0m ))\n", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'household_income_ny' is not defined" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", "\n", diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index 90129ad..8e9ec4f 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -40534,7 +40534,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 30, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -44623,7 +44623,7 @@ "xaxis": { "range": [ 0, - 400000 + 150000 ], "tickformat": "$,.0f", "title": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb index b86003c..7602147 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb @@ -20,47 +20,113 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "[ 29898.66 31086.055 32273.451 33560.2 34687.48 35676.727\n", - " 36702.16 37731.195 38760.23 39785.664 40771.41 41747.367\n", - " 43066.617 43981.58 44722.527 45440.406 46161.883 46848.56\n", - " 47526.97 48203.582 48882.895 49562.207 50237.914 50917.227\n", - " 51596.54 52275.85 52951.562 53630.87 54310.184 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0.45764065 0. 0.3956406 0.45764065 0.\n", + " 0.3956406 0.45764065 0. 0.3956406 0.45764065 0.\n", + " 0.39565623 0.45765626 0. 0.3956406 0.45764065 0.\n", + " 0.39565623 0.45765626 0. 0.3956406 0.45764065 0.\n", + " 0.3956406 0.45764065 0. 0.395625 0.45762497 0.\n", + " 0.39565623 0.45765626 0. 0.395625 0.45762497 0.\n", + " 0.3956406 0.45764065 0. 0.3956406 0.45764065 0.\n", + " 0.3956406 0.45764065 0. 0.395625 0.45762497 0. ]\n" ] } ], From 62b2dc5155795e5776570244635235c013848dc7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 5 Jun 2025 09:58:37 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 04/15] medicaid --- us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 38 +++++++++++++-------------- 1 file changed, 19 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index 8e9ec4f..d8af84e 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 55, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 56, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -52,12 +52,12 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 57, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "\n", - "situation_texas = {\n", + "situation_new_york = {\n", " \"people\": {\n", " \"you\": {\n", " \"age\": {\n", @@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 58, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -228,7 +228,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 59, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 60, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -295,7 +295,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 61, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -307,7 +307,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 62, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -28060,7 +28060,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 63, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -32214,7 +32214,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 64, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -36365,7 +36365,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 28, + "execution_count": 65, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -40454,7 +40454,7 @@ "xaxis": { "range": [ 0, - 150000 + 200000 ], "tickformat": "$,.0f", "title": { @@ -40519,7 +40519,7 @@ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", " legend_title='Scenario',\n", - " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 150_000]),\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n", " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes MTR is in decimal form (e.g., 0.42 → 42%)\n", " height=600,\n", " width=1000\n", @@ -40534,7 +40534,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 66, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -42159,7 +42159,7 @@ }, { "line": { - "color": "#616161", + "color": "#2C6496", "dash": "dot", "width": 2 }, @@ -44623,7 +44623,7 @@ "xaxis": { "range": [ 0, - 150000 + 200000 ], "tickformat": "$,.0f", "title": { @@ -44679,7 +44679,7 @@ " y=reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", " mode='lines',\n", " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Reform)',\n", - " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", "# Layout\n", @@ -44688,7 +44688,7 @@ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", " legend_title='Scenario',\n", - " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 150_000]),\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n", " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes rate is in decimal form (0.42 → 42 %)\n", " height=600,\n", " width=1000\n", From 352e4a2d544262c92f4a5a831980ee70fb695ffa Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:49:59 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 05/15] so many notebooks --- us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb | 68 ++++- us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb | 424 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb | 90 +++---- us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb | 102 +++++++ us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb | 2 +- us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb | 237 +++++++++++++++++ us/nyt/medicaid_work_req.ipynb | 57 ++++ 7 files changed, 929 insertions(+), 51 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb create mode 100644 us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb create mode 100644 us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb create mode 100644 us/nyt/medicaid_work_req.ipynb diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb index 6f0944a..f899d23 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_numbers.ipynb @@ -2,14 +2,14 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 1, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" ] } @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.457362207669945" + "20.952726308192194" ] }, "execution_count": 5, @@ -57,6 +57,64 @@ "source": [ "aca.sum()/1e6" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "premiums = baseline.calculate(\"health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b\", map_to=\"household\", period=2025)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "413790460822.6505" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "premiums.sum()/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 17, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Total premiums paid by ACA marketplace enrollees: $54.73 billion\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Calculate total premiums paid by people with ACA marketplace coverage\n", + "aca_household = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"household\", period=2025)\n", + "aca_premiums = premiums * (aca_household > 0)\n", + "total_aca_premiums = aca_premiums.sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Total premiums paid by ACA marketplace enrollees: ${total_aca_premiums/1e9:.2f} billion\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] } ], "metadata": { @@ -75,7 +133,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.12.8" + "version": "3.10.16" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ea3dd45 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,424 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 17, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "\n", + "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n", + " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n", + " }\n", + "}, country_id=\"us\")\n", + "\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 19, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 20, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "\n", + "reformed_aca_enrollment = reformed.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "difference_aca_enrollment = reformed_aca_enrollment - baseline_aca_enrollment" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 21, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "6482875.479201315" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 21, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_coverage = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_is_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "39877715.81533431" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_is_eligible.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20430546.619979884" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_coverage.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 24, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "11822550.349753413" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 24, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "reform_has_coverage = reformed.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_is_eligible = reformed.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "reform_aca_enrollment = ((reform_has_coverage & reform_is_eligible)*reform_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "\n", + "reform_aca_enrollment.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20430546.619979884" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "reform_has_coverage.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "75440174.05932575" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "reform_is_eligible.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 27, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 27, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_slcsp = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_slcsp.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 28, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year=2026\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "6482875.479201315" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment.sum()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 30, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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StateMarriedNum_DependentsEmployment_IncomeSelf_Employment_IncomeACA_BaselineACA_Reform
0ME1.00.04412.6323240.00.00.0
1ME1.00.0101122.8183590.00.00.0
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income \\\n", + "0 ME 1.0 0.0 4412.632324 0.0 \n", + "1 ME 1.0 0.0 101122.818359 0.0 \n", + "2 ME 0.0 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n", + "3 ME 0.0 0.0 91929.835938 0.0 \n", + "4 ME 0.0 0.0 36588.075684 0.0 \n", + "\n", + " ACA_Baseline ACA_Reform \n", + "0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "1 0.0 0.0 \n", + "2 0.0 0.0 \n", + "3 0.0 0.0 \n", + "4 0.0 0.0 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 30, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n", + "data = {\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"ACA_Baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", + " \"ACA_Reform\": aca_reform,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs.head() # Display the first few rows of the DataFrame" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb index e07fd61..c856986 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" ] } @@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "33.22788410880193" + "35.56245824399144" ] }, "execution_count": 5, @@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "38.4306100712353" + "39.87771581533431" ] }, "execution_count": 6, @@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "71.65849418003722" + "75.44017405932576" ] }, "execution_count": 7, @@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "70.86273435735636" + "74.55185206934088" ] }, "execution_count": 13, @@ -246,16 +246,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "96.20048595727322" + "95.26542045394717" ] }, - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -267,16 +267,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "140.78688548422448" + "138.15204642378166" ] }, - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -287,16 +287,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.269165984168318" + "20.09906775358383" ] }, - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -309,16 +309,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.60345003861629" + "20.430546619979886" ] }, - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -331,16 +331,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.720238717416315" + "20.546355124541655" ] }, - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -353,16 +353,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 41, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "63.9239444720358" + "65.39247071446417" ] }, - "execution_count": 41, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -375,16 +375,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 38, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "347.5581846564728" + "347.25837481577463" ] }, - "execution_count": 42, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -397,16 +397,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 43, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "2024 0.05176565423883876\n", + "2024 0.056593372579342015\n", "2025 1.0\n", - "2026 0.05176565417753795\n" + "2026 0.05659337260052118\n" ] } ], @@ -419,25 +419,25 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 44, + "execution_count": 24, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { - "ename": "ValueError", - "evalue": "Variable exchcov25 does not exist.", - "output_type": "error", - "traceback": [ - "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", - "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[44], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m exch25 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mexchcov25\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2025\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28mprint\u001b[39m(exch25\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvalue_counts(dropna\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28;01mFalse\u001b[39;00m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mhead())\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", - "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable exchcov25 does not exist." - ] + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 24, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" } ], - "source": [] + "source": [ + "baseline_ptc = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "\n", + "baseline_ptc" + ] } ], "metadata": { @@ -456,7 +456,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.12.8" + "version": "3.10.16" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b21af0 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "20285684.746812854\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025).sum()\n", + "print(baseline_aca_enrollment)\n", + "\n", + "baseline_has_coverage = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "baseline_is_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "\n", + "baseline_aca = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "11734775.520414181\n" + ] + }, + { + "ename": "TypeError", + "evalue": "unsupported operand type(s) for /: 'NoneType' and 'float'", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[9], line 6\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m baseline_is_eligible \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m baseline\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mis_aca_ptc_eligible\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mperson\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2025\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m baseline_aca \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m ((baseline_has_coverage \u001b[38;5;241m&\u001b[39m baseline_is_eligible)\u001b[38;5;241m*\u001b[39mbaseline_has_coverage\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mweights)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[0;32m----> 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_aca\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m/\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1e6\u001b[39;49m\n", + "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m: unsupported operand type(s) for /: 'NoneType' and 'float'" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_coverage = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "baseline_is_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "\n", + "baseline_aca = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "\n", + "baseline_aca/1e6" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb index 7602147..a3e89a7 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/mtr.ipynb @@ -244,7 +244,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.12.8" + "version": "3.10.16" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01ac6ce --- /dev/null +++ b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,237 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "NameError", + "evalue": "name 'baseline_2025' is not defined", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[4], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m coverage_flag_2025 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline_2025\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mYEAR_FILTER\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m ptc_households \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mindex[coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mastype(\u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m)]\n", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'baseline_2025' is not defined" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\n", + "coverage_flag_2025 = baseline_2025.calculate(\n", + " \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"household\", period=YEAR_FILTER\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\n", + "ptc_households = coverage_flag_2025.index[coverage_flag_2025.astype(bool)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households flagged as Marketplace in 2025:\", len(ptc_households))\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Total households with ANY PTC in 2026 baseline: 0.0\n", + "…inside Marketplace subset: 0\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# STEP 1 — run this right after you create baseline_2026 (before the reform)\n", + "\n", + "ptc_all = baseline_2026.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=YEAR_ANALYZE)\n", + "print(\"Total households with ANY PTC in 2026 baseline:\", (ptc_all > 0).sum())\n", + "\n", + "# Check inside the Marketplace subset\n", + "baseline_ptc_subset = ptc_all.loc[ptc_households]\n", + "print(\"…inside Marketplace subset:\", (baseline_ptc_subset > 0).sum())\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "NameError", + "evalue": "name 'baseline_2026' is not defined", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[1], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Ensure baseline_2026 is defined in a previous cell\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m \u001b[43mbaseline_2026\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124msecond_lowest_cost_silver_premium\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdescribe()\n", + "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'baseline_2026' is not defined" + ] + } + ], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + }, + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "2,330 households enrolled in Marketplace coverage in 2025\n", + "Saved 2,330 rows to aca_ptc_extension_impacts.csv\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0. Imports & constants\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "DATASET = \"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\"\n", + "YEAR_ANALYZE = 2026 # policy year we care about\n", + "YEAR_FILTER = 2025 # year used to flag Marketplace households\n", + "OUTPUT_CSV = \"aca_ptc_extension_impacts.csv\"\n", + "\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Reform: keep the ARPA / IRA enhanced PTC schedule past 2025\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "aca_extension_reform = Reform.from_dict(\n", + " {\n", + " # 0 – 150 % FPL: zero expected contribution\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0},\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0},\n", + "\n", + " # 150 – 400 % FPL glide-path 0 → 8.5 %\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0},\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02},\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04},\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06},\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085},\n", + "\n", + " # Keep subsidies available above 400 % FPL\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True},\n", + " },\n", + " country_id=\"us\",\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Identify Marketplace households in 2025\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "baseline_2025 = Microsimulation(dataset=DATASET)\n", + "\n", + "coverage_flag_2025 = baseline_2025.calculate(\n", + " \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"household\", period=YEAR_FILTER\n", + ")\n", + "ptc_households = coverage_flag_2025.index[coverage_flag_2025.astype(bool)]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{len(ptc_households):,} households enrolled in Marketplace coverage in {YEAR_FILTER}\")\n", + "\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 3. Run baseline and reform for 2026\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "baseline_2026 = Microsimulation(dataset=DATASET)\n", + "reform_2026 = Microsimulation(reform=aca_extension_reform, dataset=DATASET)\n", + "\n", + "def pull(sim, var):\n", + " \"\"\"Convenience: grab a household variable for YEAR_ANALYZE, keep only PTC households.\"\"\"\n", + " return sim.calculate(var, map_to=\"household\", period=YEAR_ANALYZE).loc[ptc_households]\n", + "\n", + "state = pull(baseline_2026, \"state_code\")\n", + "employment_income = pull(baseline_2026, \"employment_income\")\n", + "\n", + "baseline_ptc = pull(baseline_2026, \"aca_ptc\")\n", + "reform_ptc = pull(reform_2026, \"aca_ptc\")\n", + "\n", + "baseline_income_hb = pull(baseline_2026, \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\")\n", + "reform_income_hb = pull(reform_2026, \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\")\n", + "\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 4. Assemble results\n", + "# ---------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"state\" : state,\n", + " \"employment_income\" : employment_income,\n", + " \"baseline_aca_ptc\" : baseline_ptc,\n", + " \"reform_aca_ptc\" : reform_ptc,\n", + " \"aca_ptc_change\" : reform_ptc - baseline_ptc,\n", + " \"baseline_net_income_including_hb\" : baseline_income_hb,\n", + " \"reform_net_income_including_hb\" : reform_income_hb,\n", + " \"net_income_change_including_hb\" : reform_income_hb - baseline_income_hb,\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "df.to_csv(OUTPUT_CSV, index=False)\n", + "print(f\"Saved {len(df):,} rows to {OUTPUT_CSV}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Variable second_lowest_cost_silver_premium does not exist.", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[6], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Ensure baseline_2026 is defined in a previous cell\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m \u001b[43mbaseline_2026\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43msecond_lowest_cost_silver_premium\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mhousehold\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2026\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdescribe()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable second_lowest_cost_silver_premium does not exist." + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Ensure baseline_2026 is defined in a previous cell\n", + "baseline_2026.calculate(\"second_lowest_cost_silver_premium\",\n", + " map_to=\"household\", period=2026).describe()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/nyt/medicaid_work_req.ipynb b/us/nyt/medicaid_work_req.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..844b87e --- /dev/null +++ b/us/nyt/medicaid_work_req.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,57 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "from policyengine_core.charts import format_fig \n", + "import plotly.express as px" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "aca_baseline = " + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} From 2bac522413f9815ab55d03c00e8933202c398602 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2025 12:27:52 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 06/15] filtering --- us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb | 255 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 232 insertions(+), 23 deletions(-) diff --git a/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb index 4b21af0..a4368ac 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb @@ -22,59 +22,268 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "20285684.746812854\n" - ] + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "20.285684746812855" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 13, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025).sum()\n", - "print(baseline_aca_enrollment)\n", "\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "11.734775520414182" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ "baseline_has_coverage = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", "baseline_is_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", "\n", "baseline_aca = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", - "\n" + "\n", + "baseline_aca/1e6" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": 37, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "11734775.520414181\n" + "1,384 observations (weighted: 8,550,909) do not overlap.\n", + " household_id weight employment_income age has_esi \\\n", + "45915 81253 343056.125000 0.000000 8.0 True \n", + "45914 81253 343056.125000 14772.141602 34.0 True \n", + "45913 81253 343056.125000 120866.976562 34.0 True \n", + "43445 77870 320219.375000 2856.855713 26.0 False \n", + "27730 47054 244629.296875 0.000000 30.0 False \n", + "10466 17784 198591.671875 0.000000 43.0 False \n", + "953 3649 183900.546875 0.000000 33.0 False \n", + "46743 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 31.0 False \n", + "46746 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 8.0 False \n", + "46742 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 35.0 False \n", + "\n", + " has_marketplace_health_coverage \n", + "45915 True \n", + "45914 True \n", + "45913 True \n", + "43445 True \n", + "27730 True \n", + "10466 True \n", + "953 True \n", + "46743 True \n", + "46746 True \n", + "46742 True \n" ] - }, + } + ], + "source": [ + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "period = 2025 # keep this in one place so it’s easy to change\n", + "sim = baseline # just so the code is a bit shorter\n", + "\n", + "# 1. Pull the two flags (and the person-level sampling weight) into one DataFrame\n", + "has_cov = sim.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + "is_elg = sim.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"has_cov\" : has_cov,\n", + " \"is_elg\" : is_elg,\n", + " \"weight\" : has_cov.weights # the Series carries its own CPS weight\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# 2. Keep only people who HAVE Marketplace coverage but FAIL the eligibility flag\n", + "problem = df[(df.has_cov) & (~df.is_elg)]\n", + "print(f\"{problem.shape[0]:,} observations \"\n", + " f\"(weighted: {problem.weight.sum():,.0f}) do not overlap.\")\n", + "\n", + "# 3. (Optional) Bring in a few explanatory variables so you can see *why*\n", + "extra_vars = [\n", + " \"employment_income\",\n", + " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \"has_esi\", # or whatever ESI flag you rely on\n", + " \"age\",\n", + " \"household_id\",\n", + " \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", + " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", + "]\n", + "\n", + "for v in extra_vars:\n", + " problem[v] = sim.calculate(v, map_to=\"person\", period=period).loc[problem.index]\n", + "\n", + "# 4. Quickly eyeball the 10 highest-weight cases\n", + "cols_to_show = [\"household_id\", \"weight\", \"employment_income\", \"age\",\n", + " \"has_esi\", \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " ]\n", + "print(problem.sort_values(\"weight\", ascending=False)[cols_to_show].head(10))\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 30, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "137.17248543564725" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 30, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_has_esi = baseline.calculate(\"has_esi\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "baseline_has_esi.sum() / 1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 33, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ { - "ename": "TypeError", - "evalue": "unsupported operand type(s) for /: 'NoneType' and 'float'", - "output_type": "error", - "traceback": [ - "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", - "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[9], line 6\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m baseline_is_eligible \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m baseline\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mis_aca_ptc_eligible\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mperson\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2025\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m baseline_aca \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m ((baseline_has_coverage \u001b[38;5;241m&\u001b[39m baseline_is_eligible)\u001b[38;5;241m*\u001b[39mbaseline_has_coverage\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mweights)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[0;32m----> 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_aca\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m/\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1e6\u001b[39;49m\n", - "\u001b[0;31mTypeError\u001b[0m: unsupported operand type(s) for /: 'NoneType' and 'float'" + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "1.689951476693666" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 33, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "double_coverage = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_has_esi)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "double_coverage/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 44, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "1,112 observations remain (weighted pop: 6.9 million)\n", + "\n", + "Top-weighted mismatches (Marketplace ✔️ / PTC-eligible ❌ / no ESI):\n", + " household_id weight employment_income self_employment_income age tax_unit_dependents\n", + " 77870 320219.375000 2856.855713 0.000000 26.0 0\n", + " 47054 244629.296875 0.000000 0.000000 30.0 0\n", + " 17784 198591.671875 0.000000 0.000000 43.0 0\n", + " 3649 183900.546875 0.000000 0.000000 33.0 0\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 6681.662598 31.0 4\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 35.0 4\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 12.0 4\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 8.0 4\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 17.0 4\n", + " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 3.0 4\n" ] } ], "source": [ - "baseline_has_coverage = baseline.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", - "baseline_is_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", "\n", - "baseline_aca = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", + "period = 2025\n", + "sim = baseline # shorthand\n", "\n", - "baseline_aca/1e6" + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Line up the three core flags plus the CPS weight\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "has_cov = sim.calculate(\"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + "is_elg = sim.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + "has_esi = sim.calculate(\"has_esi\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"has_cov\" : has_cov,\n", + " \"is_elg\" : is_elg,\n", + " \"has_esi\" : has_esi,\n", + " \"weight\" : has_cov.weights,\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Keep Marketplace ✔️ AND ACA-eligible ❌ AND ESI ❌\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "problem_no_esi = df[(df.has_cov) & (~df.is_elg) & (~df.has_esi)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\n", + " f\"{problem_no_esi.shape[0]:,} observations remain \"\n", + " f\"(weighted pop: {problem_no_esi.weight.sum()/1e6:,.1f} million)\"\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 3. Pull in only *your* existing explanatory vars\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "extra_vars = [\n", + " \"employment_income\",\n", + " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \"age\",\n", + " \"household_id\",\n", + " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", + "]\n", + "\n", + "for v in extra_vars:\n", + " problem_no_esi[v] = (\n", + " sim.calculate(v, map_to=\"person\", period=period)\n", + " .loc[problem_no_esi.index]\n", + " )\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 4. Quick look at the heaviest-weighted cases\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "cols_to_show = [\n", + " \"household_id\",\n", + " \"weight\",\n", + " \"employment_income\",\n", + " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \"age\",\n", + " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", + "]\n", + "top50 = (problem_no_esi\n", + " .sort_values(\"weight\", ascending=False)\n", + " [cols_to_show]\n", + " .head(50))\n", + "\n", + "print(top50.to_string(index=False))\n" ] } ], From 8a9479e61f8eb7213ebd2d02ff338d9838903af4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:50:35 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 07/15] more notebooks --- us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb | 120 +++++++++---- us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb | 122 +++++++------ us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb | 290 +++++++++++++++++++++++------- us/medicaid/nyt_bug.ipynb | 137 ++++++++++++++ us/nyt/nyt_bug.ipynb | 275 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 798 insertions(+), 146 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/medicaid/nyt_bug.ipynb create mode 100644 us/nyt/nyt_bug.ipynb diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb index ea3dd45..cfd7d6a 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform copy.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n" @@ -12,7 +21,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -56,7 +65,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -66,7 +75,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -78,16 +87,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "6482875.479201315" + "40.21955536317878" ] }, - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -98,21 +107,21 @@ "\n", "baseline_aca_enrollment = ((baseline_has_coverage & baseline_is_eligible)*baseline_has_coverage.weights).sum()\n", "\n", - "baseline_aca_enrollment" + "baseline_is_eligible.sum()/1e6" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "39877715.81533431" + "40219555.363178775" ] }, - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -123,16 +132,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20430546.619979884" + "20197518.476335302" ] }, - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -143,16 +152,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "11822550.349753413" + "12432543.975246934" ] }, - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -168,16 +177,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20430546.619979884" + "20197518.476335302" ] }, - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -188,16 +197,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "75440174.05932575" + "76212421.75032558" ] }, - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -215,16 +224,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "0.0" + "109008121808.43225" ] }, - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -236,7 +245,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 28, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -250,16 +259,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "6482875.479201315" + "6155068.245171301" ] }, - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -272,7 +281,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -376,7 +385,7 @@ "4 0.0 0.0 " ] }, - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -398,6 +407,51 @@ "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", "df_outputs.head() # Display the first few rows of the DataFrame" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Top 10 highest weight households with ACA PTC > 0:\n" + ] + }, + { + "ename": "KeyError", + "evalue": "\"['Age'] not in index\"", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[26], line 14\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 11\u001b[0m top_10_highest_weight \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m households_with_aca\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mnlargest(\u001b[38;5;241m10\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mHousehold_Weight\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28mprint\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mTop 10 highest weight households with ACA PTC > 0:\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 14\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28mprint\u001b[39m(\u001b[43mtop_10_highest_weight\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mState\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mAge\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mMarried\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mNum_Dependents\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mEmployment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 15\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mSelf_Employment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mACA_Baseline\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mACA_Reform\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mHousehold_Weight\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m)\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/frame.py:4108\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mDataFrame.__getitem__\u001b[0;34m(self, key)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 4106\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m is_iterator(key):\n\u001b[1;32m 4107\u001b[0m key \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlist\u001b[39m(key)\n\u001b[0;32m-> 4108\u001b[0m indexer \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcolumns\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_get_indexer_strict\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mkey\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mcolumns\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m[\u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m]\n\u001b[1;32m 4110\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# take() does not accept boolean indexers\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 4111\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mgetattr\u001b[39m(indexer, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdtype\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m) \u001b[38;5;241m==\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m:\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/indexes/base.py:6200\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mIndex._get_indexer_strict\u001b[0;34m(self, key, axis_name)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 6197\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 6198\u001b[0m keyarr, indexer, new_indexer \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39m_reindex_non_unique(keyarr)\n\u001b[0;32m-> 6200\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_raise_if_missing\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mkeyarr\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mindexer\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43maxis_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 6202\u001b[0m keyarr \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtake(indexer)\n\u001b[1;32m 6203\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(key, Index):\n\u001b[1;32m 6204\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# GH 42790 - Preserve name from an Index\u001b[39;00m\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/indexes/base.py:6252\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mIndex._raise_if_missing\u001b[0;34m(self, key, indexer, axis_name)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 6249\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mKeyError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mNone of [\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mkey\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m] are in the [\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00maxis_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m]\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 6251\u001b[0m not_found \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlist\u001b[39m(ensure_index(key)[missing_mask\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mnonzero()[\u001b[38;5;241m0\u001b[39m]]\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39munique())\n\u001b[0;32m-> 6252\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mKeyError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mnot_found\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m not in index\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mKeyError\u001b[0m: \"['Age'] not in index\"" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Get household weights\n", + "household_weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "\n", + "# Add weights to the dataframe\n", + "df_outputs[\"Household_Weight\"] = household_weights\n", + "\n", + "# Filter for households with aca_ptc > 0 (using baseline ACA)\n", + "households_with_aca = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"ACA_Baseline\"] > 0]\n", + "\n", + "# Sort by household weight (descending) and get top 10\n", + "top_10_highest_weight = households_with_aca.nlargest(10, \"Household_Weight\")\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Top 10 highest weight households with ACA PTC > 0:\")\n", + "print(top_10_highest_weight[[\"State\", \"Married\", \"Num_Dependents\", \"Employment_Income\", \n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\", \"ACA_Baseline\", \"ACA_Reform\", \"Household_Weight\"]])" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb index c856986..ede0341 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 1, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -86,16 +86,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "35.56245824399144" + "35.9928663871468" ] }, - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -106,16 +106,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "39.87771581533431" + "40.21955536317878" ] }, - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -126,16 +126,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "75.44017405932576" + "76.21242175032557" ] }, - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ "0.0" ] }, - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -177,7 +177,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -188,7 +188,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -197,7 +197,7 @@ "0.0" ] }, - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -208,7 +208,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -217,16 +217,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "74.55185206934088" + "74.6098250482967" ] }, - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -237,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -246,37 +246,37 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "95.26542045394717" + "95.18610952164795" ] }, - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ - "baseline_medicaid_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"is_medicaid_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_medicaid_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"is_medicaid_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2024 ).sum()\n", "baseline_medicaid_enrollment/1e6" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "138.15204642378166" + "139.72365076048433" ] }, - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -287,16 +287,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.09906775358383" + "19.86982053600405" ] }, - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -309,16 +309,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.430546619979886" + "20.1975184763353" ] }, - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -331,16 +331,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.546355124541655" + "20.31200607083411" ] }, - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -353,16 +353,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "65.39247071446417" + "66.06914323356507" ] }, - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -375,16 +375,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "347.25837481577463" + "351.4008758453535" ] }, - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -397,16 +397,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "2024 0.056593372579342015\n", + "2024 0.051032864873153116\n", "2025 1.0\n", - "2026 0.05659337260052118\n" + "2026 0.05103286425002665\n" ] } ], @@ -425,7 +425,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "0.0" + "219563611137.93384" ] }, "execution_count": 24, @@ -438,6 +438,28 @@ "\n", "baseline_ptc" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 27, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Variable medicaid does not exist.", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[27], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mmedicaid\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2024\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid\u001b[38;5;241m/\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m1e6\u001b[39m\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable medicaid does not exist." + ] + } + ], + "source": [] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb index a4368ac..bc2e7de 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/debug_aca.ipynb @@ -17,21 +17,21 @@ "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", - "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n" + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/cps_2023.h5\")\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.285684746812855" + "12.428581703125" ] }, - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -44,16 +44,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "11.734775520414182" + "8.30790088671875" ] }, - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -69,37 +69,25 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 37, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "1,384 observations (weighted: 8,550,909) do not overlap.\n", - " household_id weight employment_income age has_esi \\\n", - "45915 81253 343056.125000 0.000000 8.0 True \n", - "45914 81253 343056.125000 14772.141602 34.0 True \n", - "45913 81253 343056.125000 120866.976562 34.0 True \n", - "43445 77870 320219.375000 2856.855713 26.0 False \n", - "27730 47054 244629.296875 0.000000 30.0 False \n", - "10466 17784 198591.671875 0.000000 43.0 False \n", - "953 3649 183900.546875 0.000000 33.0 False \n", - "46743 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 31.0 False \n", - "46746 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 8.0 False \n", - "46742 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 35.0 False \n", - "\n", - " has_marketplace_health_coverage \n", - "45915 True \n", - "45914 True \n", - "45913 True \n", - "43445 True \n", - "27730 True \n", - "10466 True \n", - "953 True \n", - "46743 True \n", - "46746 True \n", - "46742 True \n" + "627 observations (weighted: 4,120,681) do not overlap.\n", + " household_id weight adjusted_gross_income age has_esi\n", + "37586 65629 28516.822266 26300.667969 40.0 False\n", + "37587 65629 28516.822266 26300.667969 58.0 False\n", + "4998 10045 23764.017578 20978.705078 27.0 False\n", + "37976 65209 19011.214844 0.000000 30.0 False\n", + "4497 9340 19011.214844 0.000000 22.0 False\n", + "24938 43163 19011.214844 31465.369141 9.0 False\n", + "43445 77870 19011.214844 7706.610352 26.0 False\n", + "43677 78173 19011.214844 19480.806641 35.0 True\n", + "43678 78173 19011.214844 19480.806641 6.0 False\n", + "43679 78173 19011.214844 19480.806641 1.0 False\n" ] } ], @@ -128,21 +116,21 @@ "\n", "# 3. (Optional) Bring in a few explanatory variables so you can see *why*\n", "extra_vars = [\n", - " \"employment_income\",\n", - " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \n", " \"has_esi\", # or whatever ESI flag you rely on\n", " \"age\",\n", " \"household_id\",\n", - " \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", - " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", + " \"aca_ptc\",\n", + " \"adjusted_gross_income\"\n", + " \n", "]\n", "\n", "for v in extra_vars:\n", " problem[v] = sim.calculate(v, map_to=\"person\", period=period).loc[problem.index]\n", "\n", "# 4. Quickly eyeball the 10 highest-weight cases\n", - "cols_to_show = [\"household_id\", \"weight\", \"employment_income\", \"age\",\n", - " \"has_esi\", \"has_marketplace_health_coverage\",\n", + "cols_to_show = [\"household_id\", \"weight\", \"adjusted_gross_income\", \"age\",\n", + " \"has_esi\", \n", " \n", " \n", " ]\n", @@ -151,16 +139,30 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "137.17248543564725" + "171.7710788408203" ] }, - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -172,16 +174,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 33, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "1.689951476693666" + "0.465774763671875" ] }, - "execution_count": 33, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -193,27 +195,65 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 44, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "1,112 observations remain (weighted pop: 6.9 million)\n", - "\n", - "Top-weighted mismatches (Marketplace ✔️ / PTC-eligible ❌ / no ESI):\n", - " household_id weight employment_income self_employment_income age tax_unit_dependents\n", - " 77870 320219.375000 2856.855713 0.000000 26.0 0\n", - " 47054 244629.296875 0.000000 0.000000 30.0 0\n", - " 17784 198591.671875 0.000000 0.000000 43.0 0\n", - " 3649 183900.546875 0.000000 0.000000 33.0 0\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 6681.662598 31.0 4\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 35.0 4\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 12.0 4\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 8.0 4\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 17.0 4\n", - " 82375 143590.609375 0.000000 0.000000 3.0 4\n" + "558 observations remain (weighted pop: 3.7 million)\n", + " household_id weight tax_unit_earned_income age tax_unit_dependents\n", + " 65629 28516.822266 28300.000000 40.0 6\n", + " 65629 28516.822266 28300.000000 58.0 6\n", + " 10045 23764.017578 20976.912109 27.0 0\n", + " 43163 19011.214844 31465.369141 9.0 3\n", + " 77870 19011.214844 2726.998779 26.0 0\n", + " 78173 19011.214844 20976.912109 6.0 2\n", + " 78173 19011.214844 20976.912109 1.0 2\n", + " 9340 19011.214844 0.000000 22.0 0\n", + " 43163 19011.214844 31465.369141 4.0 3\n", + " 43163 19011.214844 31465.369141 2.0 3\n", + " 65209 19011.214844 0.000000 30.0 0\n", + " 22644 14258.411133 0.000000 57.0 0\n", + " 43237 14258.411133 46673.632812 6.0 2\n", + " 43237 14258.411133 46673.632812 11.0 2\n", + " 82028 14258.411133 0.000000 24.0 0\n", + " 9547 14258.411133 52442.281250 19.0 1\n", + " 9547 14258.411133 52442.281250 21.0 1\n", + " 9547 14258.411133 52442.281250 54.0 1\n", + " 60998 14258.411133 13634.993164 21.0 2\n", + " 43784 14258.411133 10488.456055 48.0 0\n", + " 38683 14258.411133 56637.664062 7.0 2\n", + " 43554 14258.411133 0.000000 54.0 0\n", + " 39013 14258.411133 0.000000 58.0 0\n", + " 38683 14258.411133 56637.664062 5.0 2\n", + " 47389 14258.411133 0.000000 60.0 1\n", + " 38683 14258.411133 56637.664062 32.0 2\n", + " 71141 14258.411133 26221.140625 58.0 2\n", + " 71141 14258.411133 26221.140625 47.0 2\n", + " 71141 14258.411133 26221.140625 30.0 2\n", + " 17419 14258.411133 29367.677734 53.0 0\n", + " 17419 14258.411133 29367.677734 48.0 0\n", + " 71141 14258.411133 26221.140625 18.0 2\n", + " 73982 14258.411133 0.000000 47.0 3\n", + " 22661 14258.411133 19928.066406 50.0 0\n", + " 44036 14258.411133 17830.376953 37.0 2\n", + " 22644 14258.411133 0.000000 57.0 0\n", + " 47870 14258.411133 29996.986328 40.0 3\n", + " 45101 14258.411133 104814.812500 17.0 5\n", + " 46450 14258.411133 68174.968750 16.0 3\n", + " 59325 14258.411133 13634.993164 51.0 0\n", + " 59663 14258.411133 0.000000 35.0 2\n", + " 45328 14258.411133 12586.147461 40.0 0\n", + " 45275 14258.411133 62888.890625 70.0 0\n", + " 45333 14258.411133 37758.441406 15.0 1\n", + " 45101 14258.411133 104814.812500 15.0 5\n", + " 45101 14258.411133 104814.812500 16.0 5\n", + " 46206 14258.411133 419.259277 39.0 0\n", + " 45101 14258.411133 104814.812500 17.0 5\n", + " 7906 14258.411133 27269.986328 29.0 0\n", + " 25606 9505.607422 48172.429688 6.0 2\n" ] } ], @@ -254,8 +294,8 @@ "# 3. Pull in only *your* existing explanatory vars\n", "# ------------------------------------------------------------\n", "extra_vars = [\n", - " \"employment_income\",\n", - " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \"tax_unit_earned_income\",\n", + "\n", " \"age\",\n", " \"household_id\",\n", " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", @@ -273,8 +313,8 @@ "cols_to_show = [\n", " \"household_id\",\n", " \"weight\",\n", - " \"employment_income\",\n", - " \"self_employment_income\",\n", + " \"tax_unit_earned_income\",\n", + " \n", " \"age\",\n", " \"tax_unit_dependents\",\n", "]\n", @@ -285,6 +325,130 @@ "\n", "print(top50.to_string(index=False))\n" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "132094.3153464236" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "aca_premiums = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2025)\n", + "\n", + "aca_premiums.sum() / 1e6\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Variable medicaid does not exist.", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[9], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m medicaid \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mmedicaid\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2025\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m medicaid\u001b[38;5;241m/\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m1e9\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m medicaid_per_capita \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m baseline\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmedicaid_per_capita_cost\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2025\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable medicaid does not exist." + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025).sum()\n", + "medicaid/1e9\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "medicaid_per_capita = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", period=2025).sum()\n", + "\n", + "medicaid_per_capita/1e9" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 45, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "has_medicaid = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025) >0\n", + "has_medicaid_per_capita = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", period=2025) >0\n", + "\n", + "(~has_medicaid & has_medicaid_per_capita).sum() \n", + "\n", + "target = has_medicaid & ~has_medicaid_per_capita" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 51, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "array(['WI', 'NC'], dtype=object)" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 51, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid_cat = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_group\", map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "medicaid_cat[target]\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "df = baseline.calculate_dataframe([\"medicaid\", \"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", \"medicaid_group\", \"state_code\"], map_to=\"person\", period=2025)\n", + "df[\"target\"] = (df.medicaid > 0 )& (df.medicaid_per_capita_cost == 0)\n", + "df[df.target].state_code.unique()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "122636.457876885" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Check how many households have aca_ptc > 0\n", + "aca_ptc = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\",\n", + "period=2025)\n", + "\n", + "# Count households with aca_ptc > 0\n", + "households_with_ptc = (aca_ptc > 0).sum()\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "# Weighted count\n", + "weighted_households_with_ptc = ((aca_ptc > 0) *\n", + "aca_ptc.weights).sum()\n", + "\n", + "weighted_households_with_ptc/1e6" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/medicaid/nyt_bug.ipynb b/us/medicaid/nyt_bug.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7758717 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/nyt_bug.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,137 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 28, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year = 2026\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 84008.713715 \n", + "\n", + " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline rating_area \n", + "23890 0.0 0.0 9 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n", + "data = {\n", + " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", + " \"rating_area\": rating_area,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/nyt/nyt_bug.ipynb b/us/nyt/nyt_bug.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d33511f --- /dev/null +++ b/us/nyt/nyt_bug.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,275 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year = 2025\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_magi = baseline.calculate(\"aca_magi\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idaca_magiStateMarriedNum_DependentsEmployment_IncomeSelf_Employment_Incomeaca_baselinerating_area
23890103176186612.625PA1.03.080329.0846250.039122.4453129
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id aca_magi State Married Num_Dependents \\\n", + "23890 103176 186612.625 PA 1.0 3.0 \n", + "\n", + " Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline rating_area \n", + "23890 80329.084625 0.0 39122.445312 9 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n", + "data = {\n", + " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"aca_magi\": aca_magi,\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", + " \"rating_area\": rating_area,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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person_idhousehold_idagemedicaid_eligiblemedicaid_per_capita_cost
587245872410317659.0False0.000000
587255872510317656.0False0.000000
587265872610317626.0False0.000000
587275872710317618.0False0.000000
587285872810317616.0True4179.962891
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " person_id household_id age medicaid_eligible \\\n", + "58724 58724 103176 59.0 False \n", + "58725 58725 103176 56.0 False \n", + "58726 58726 103176 26.0 False \n", + "58727 58727 103176 18.0 False \n", + "58728 58728 103176 16.0 True \n", + "\n", + " medicaid_per_capita_cost \n", + "58724 0.000000 \n", + "58725 0.000000 \n", + "58726 0.000000 \n", + "58727 0.000000 \n", + "58728 4179.962891 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 29, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Get Medicaid eligibility for each person\n", + "medicaid_eligibility = baseline.calculate(\"is_medicaid_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "person_household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "age = baseline.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "medicaid_per_capita_cost = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "\n", + "# Create person-level dataframe\n", + "person_data = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"person_id\": range(len(medicaid_eligibility)),\n", + " \"household_id\": person_household_id,\n", + " \"age\": age,\n", + " \"medicaid_eligible\": medicaid_eligibility,\n", + " \"medicaid_per_capita_cost\": medicaid_per_capita_cost\n", + "\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# Filter for household 103176\n", + "household_103176_medicaid = person_data[person_data['household_id'] ==\n", + "103176]\n", + "household_103176_medicaid = person_data[person_data['household_id'] == 103176]\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "household_103176_medicaid\n" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} From 8fa0f2b69cca63d3d63f720428ff37f138d4aae4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2025 14:41:02 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 08/15] notebooks --- .DS_Store | Bin 6148 -> 6148 bytes us/.DS_Store | Bin 0 -> 6148 bytes 2 files changed, 0 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/.DS_Store diff --git a/.DS_Store b/.DS_Store index ce253bde249167c1cdeccd61fcc347e5da866ec7..123a5b1a29712e6b55737a05ef366cc06c2e89ca 100644 GIT binary patch delta 33 ocmZoMXffC@g;B)N$Vf-Q$jqWvN1@u%z)(lQ%+zr63dR^Q0Gu@l*8l(j delta 33 ocmZoMXffC@g;B)9+)_uu*xaI4N1@u>$Vf-Q#KL0p3dR^Q0G?b3^#A|> diff --git a/us/.DS_Store b/us/.DS_Store new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6cc88962e471f3991e4671eaeaecebcf11857ab7 GIT binary patch literal 6148 zcmeHK-AcnS6i(c98AIrW!Y%{e4qOKg#hX&+3s}($mD$pv#oCOubI2Ir$ySs`N0rN+yf3 zvv;PlB22Q$Ocx~a1X6CVlPp#XU(K^P*R_EOh_+~to$hk!4hB6r7#^>Ba(U8sdvbW> zu2yZae{gtuF@8#)GxcWZqxs`F{?-Ozk6oy@V`c zfEf5^4DjYC82PX$d$#^q9-g%l+C4NB%qvj=0e$Tf00! 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policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 64, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n", + " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n", + " }\n", + "}, country_id=\"us\")\n", + "\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 65, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", period=2024)\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 66, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "40.35911041608722" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 66, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"tax_unit\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_aca_eligible/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 67, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "227.28695912942868" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 67, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 68, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "184,751,527 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2025\n", + "sim = baseline\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 69, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "23,752,636 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2026\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up_r = reformed.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc_r = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt_r = reformed.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up_r == 1) & (aca_ptc_r > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt_r).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 70, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "18,379,449 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2026\n", + "sim = baseline\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 71, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year = 2026\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 72, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 94992.562805 \n", + "\n", + " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n", + "23890 91.854012 0.0 39058.191406 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 72, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n", + "data = {\n", + " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", + " \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n", + " }\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 73, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", + "15 99 ME 12122.632812 0.0 0.0\n", + "24 188 ME 14602.563477 0.0 0.0\n", + "27 206 ME 13875.028320 0.0 0.0\n", + "30 261 ME 25312.886719 0.0 0.0\n", + "31 275 ME 19168.126953 0.0 0.0\n", + "32 284 ME 30920.968750 0.0 0.0\n", + "35 315 ME 13098.019531 0.0 0.0\n", + "41 339 ME 18794.173828 0.0 0.0\n", + "44 356 ME 36464.535156 0.0 0.0\n", + "47 380 ME 43613.914062 0.0 0.0" + ] + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0️⃣ Make sure the CPS household weight is in the DataFrame\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# If you already stuffed it in earlier, skip this.\n", + "df_outputs[\"weight\"] = aca_baseline.weights # aligns by household_id\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1️⃣ Define a weight threshold for “reasonably representative”\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "MIN_WT = 10_000 # ↖ try 5_000 if you want a looser cut\n", + "\n", + "df_big = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"weight\"] >= MIN_WT].copy()\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2️⃣ Net PTC change and (optionally) weighted national impact\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df_big[\"net_change\"] = df_big[\"aca_reform\"] - df_big[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "df_big[\"wt_change\"] = df_big[\"net_change\"] * df_big[\"weight\"] # national $ impact\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 3️⃣ Biggest ↑ increases and ↓ decreases, LIMITED to big-weight HHs\n", + "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "N = 10 # how many households to show in each direction\n", + "\n", + "cols = [\"household_id\", \"State\", \"weight\", \"net_change\", \"wt_change\"]\n", + "\n", + "top_increases = df_big.nlargest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n", + "top_decreases = df_big.nsmallest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\")\n", + "display(top_increases)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\nMost negative net-income changes (PTC cuts):\")\n", + "display(top_decreases)\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 74, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateMarriedNum_DependentsEmployment_IncomeSelf_Employment_Incomeaca_baselineaca_reformweight
1962083988CA1.02.0160877.218750.00.010092.76757812765.5
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n", + "\n", + " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", + "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 12765.5 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 74, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 83988]\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 75, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,264.49\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# 0. Make sure net_change exists\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# 1. Flag households with any change\n", + "mask = df_outputs[\"net_change\"] != 0 # True for ↑ or ↓\n", + "\n", + "# 2. Weighted mean among those households\n", + "avg_net_change = (\n", + " (df_outputs.loc[mask, \"net_change\"] * df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: \"\n", + " f\"${avg_net_change:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 76, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,654.84\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Keep only households with a PTC in *both* scenarios\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "mask_both_ptc = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] > 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n", + "df_dual_ptc = df_outputs[mask_both_ptc]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "avg_net_change_dual_hh = (\n", + " (df_dual_ptc[\"net_change\"] * df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both \"\n", + " f\"baseline and reform: ${avg_net_change_dual_hh:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 92, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "30.206960672172997" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 92, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Pull household-level results\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# ACA PTC (baseline and reform)\n", + "ptc_base = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "ptc_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "# Household weights (same for both sims)\n", + "hh_wt = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted sum of the change\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "weighted_total_change = ptc_reform - ptc_base\n", + "\n", + "# Optional: average change per household\n", + "weighted_total_change.sum()/1e9" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 101, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { + "config": { + "plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly" + }, + "data": [ + { + "marker": { + "color": [ + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496" + ] + }, + "text": [ + "$102", + "$141", + "$148", + "$156", + "$191", + "$464", + "$233", + "$281", + "$161", + "$108" + ], + "textposition": "inside", + "type": "bar", + "x": [ + 1, + 2, + 3, + 4, + 5, + 6, + 7, + 8, + 9, + 10 + ], + "y": [ + 102.4264144897461, + 140.80027770996094, + 147.8699188232422, + 156.31858825683594, + 191.30772399902344, + 463.7459716796875, + 232.62808227539062, + 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"#E5ECF6", + "gridcolor": "white", + "gridwidth": 2, + "linecolor": "white", + "showbackground": true, + "ticks": "", + "zerolinecolor": "white" + } + }, + "shapedefaults": { + "line": { + "color": "#2a3f5f" + } + }, + "ternary": { + "aaxis": { + "gridcolor": "white", + "linecolor": "white", + "ticks": "" + }, + "baxis": { + "gridcolor": "white", + "linecolor": "white", + "ticks": "" + }, + "bgcolor": "#E5ECF6", + "caxis": { + "gridcolor": "white", + "linecolor": "white", + "ticks": "" + } + }, + "title": { + "x": 0.05 + }, + "xaxis": { + "automargin": true, + "gridcolor": "white", + "linecolor": "white", + "ticks": "", + "title": { + "standoff": 15 + }, + "zerolinecolor": "white", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + }, + "yaxis": { + "automargin": true, + "gridcolor": "white", + "linecolor": "white", + "ticks": "", + "title": { + "standoff": 15 + }, + "zerolinecolor": "white", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + } + } + }, + "title": { + "text": "Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026" + }, + "xaxis": { + "title": { + "text": "Income Decile" + } + }, + "yaxis": { + "title": { + "text": "Average change in household net income ($)" + } + } + } + } + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# Brand hex codes (one-to-one with style.colors)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "COLOR_BLUE = \"#2C6496\" # style.colors.BLUE / BLUE_PRIMARY\n", + "COLOR_BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\" # style.colors.BLUE_LIGHT / BLUE_95\n", + "COLOR_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\" # style.colors.LIGHT_GRAY\n", + "COLOR_MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\" # style.colors.MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY\n", + "COLOR_DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\" # style.colors.DARK_GRAY\n", + "\n", + "# ––– choose colours for positive vs. negative average bars –––\n", + "POS_COLOR = COLOR_BLUE\n", + "NEG_COLOR = COLOR_DARK_GRAY\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Pull baseline / reform net income + weights\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "net_base = baseline.calculate(\n", + " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "net_reform = reformed.calculate(\n", + " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\n", + " \"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"net_base\": net_base,\n", + " \"delta\": net_reform - net_base,\n", + " \"weight\": weights,\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted decile edges (baseline ranking)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "def wquantile(values, qs, w):\n", + " srt = np.argsort(values)\n", + " values, w = values[srt], w[srt]\n", + " cum_w = np.cumsum(w) / np.sum(w)\n", + " return np.interp(qs, cum_w, values)\n", + "\n", + "edges = wquantile(df[\"net_base\"].values,\n", + " np.linspace(0, 1, 11), df[\"weight\"].values)\n", + "\n", + "df[\"decile\"] = pd.cut(df[\"net_base\"],\n", + " bins=edges,\n", + " labels=np.arange(1, 11),\n", + " include_lowest=True)\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 3. Weighted average Δnet-income by decile\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "decile_avg = (\n", + " df.groupby(\"decile\")\n", + " .apply(lambda g: np.average(g[\"delta\"], weights=g[\"weight\"]))\n", + " .reset_index(name=\"avg_change\")\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 4. Use brand colours: blue if gain, dark-gray if loss\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "bar_colors = [\n", + " POS_COLOR if v >= 0 else NEG_COLOR\n", + " for v in decile_avg[\"avg_change\"]\n", + "]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 5. Plot\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "fig = go.Figure(\n", + " data=[\n", + " go.Bar(\n", + " x=decile_avg[\"decile\"].astype(int),\n", + " y=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"],\n", + " marker_color=bar_colors,\n", + " text=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"].apply(lambda v: f\"${v:,.0f}\"),\n", + " textposition=\"inside\",\n", + " )\n", + " ],\n", + " layout=dict(\n", + " title=\"Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026\",\n", + " xaxis_title=\"Income Decile\",\n", + " yaxis_title=\"Average change in household net income ($)\",\n", + " showlegend=False,\n", + " fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1),\n", + " )\n", + ")\n", + "fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_color=\"black\")\n", + "fig.show()\n" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index d8af84e..e819b47 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 55, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -16,7 +25,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 56, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -52,7 +61,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 57, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -149,7 +158,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 58, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -228,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 59, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -250,7 +259,324 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 60, + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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income_labelincome_usdptc_baselineptc_ira_reform
0138 % FPL ($29,187)291879128.74707010090.201172
1300 % FPL ($63,450)634504062.4511726283.201172
2400 % FPL ($84,600)846000.0000002899.201172
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform\n", + "0 138 % FPL ($29,187) 29187 9128.747070 10090.201172\n", + "1 300 % FPL ($63,450) 63450 4062.451172 6283.201172\n", + "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import copy\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Convenience: build & run a one-income Texas couple simulation\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "def calc_ptc_for_income(base_situation: dict, income: float, *, use_reform=False):\n", + " \"\"\"\n", + " Return ACA PTC (household-level) for the given income.\n", + "\n", + " Parameters\n", + " ----------\n", + " base_situation : dict\n", + " The original `situation_texas` dict from the notebook.\n", + " income : float\n", + " Total household employment income to test (USD, annual).\n", + " use_reform : bool, default False\n", + " If True, applies the IRA-style `reform` object.\n", + "\n", + " Returns\n", + " -------\n", + " float\n", + " PTC in dollars for period 2026.\n", + " \"\"\"\n", + " # Deep-copy so we don’t mutate the original dict\n", + " sit = copy.deepcopy(base_situation)\n", + "\n", + " # Remove axes so we run a single-point simulation\n", + " sit.pop(\"axes\", None)\n", + "\n", + " # Split income 50/50 between the two adults\n", + " for person in [\"you\", \"your partner\"]:\n", + " sit[\"people\"][person][\"employment_income\"] = {\"2026\": income / 2}\n", + "\n", + " # Run the simulation (baseline or reform)\n", + " sim = Simulation(situation=sit, reform=reform if use_reform else None)\n", + " # Household-level PTC for 2026 comes back as a 1-element array\n", + " return sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Pull the three requested incomes\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "targets = {\n", + " \"138 % FPL ($29,187)\": 29_187,\n", + " \"300 % FPL ($63,450)\": 63_450,\n", + " \"400 % FPL ($84,600)\": 84_600,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "rows = []\n", + "for label, inc in targets.items():\n", + " rows.append(\n", + " {\n", + " \"income_label\": label,\n", + " \"income_usd\": inc,\n", + " \"ptc_baseline\": calc_ptc_for_income(situation_texas, inc, use_reform=False),\n", + " \"ptc_ira_reform\": calc_ptc_for_income(situation_texas, inc, use_reform=True),\n", + " }\n", + " )\n", + "\n", + "ptc_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)\n", + "ptc_df\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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income_labelincome_usdptc_baselineptc_ira_reformmedicaid_costper_capita_chip
0154 % FPL ($41,041)410410.00.00000016480.6962890.000000
1200 % FPL ($53,300)533000.00.00000012930.671875829.929932
2405 % FPL ($107,933)1079330.012268.5488280.000000829.929932
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform \\\n", + "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.0 0.000000 \n", + "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.0 0.000000 \n", + "2 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.0 12268.548828 \n", + "\n", + " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n", + "0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n", + "1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n", + "2 0.000000 829.929932 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import copy\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Helper: run a one-point simulation and collect metrics\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "def get_metrics_for_income(base_situation: dict, income: float):\n", + " \"\"\"\n", + " Returns baseline & reform PTC plus baseline Medicaid and CHIP metrics\n", + " for a New York family of three at the specified annual income.\n", + "\n", + " Parameters\n", + " ----------\n", + " base_situation : dict\n", + " Your `situation_ny` dictionary.\n", + " income : float\n", + " Total household employment income to test (USD, annual).\n", + "\n", + " Returns\n", + " -------\n", + " dict with keys\n", + " ptc_baseline – ACA PTC in baseline\n", + " ptc_ira_reform – ACA PTC under IRA-style reform\n", + " medicaid_cost – household Medicaid benefit (baseline)\n", + " per_capita_chip – CHIP benefit ÷ household size (baseline)\n", + " \"\"\"\n", + " # ---------------- Copy & inject the income --------------------\n", + " sit = copy.deepcopy(base_situation)\n", + " sit.pop(\"axes\", None) # single-point sim only\n", + "\n", + " # Split income equally between both adults\n", + " for person in [\"you\", \"your partner\"]:\n", + " sit[\"people\"][person][\"employment_income\"] = {\"2026\": income / 2}\n", + "\n", + " hh_size = len(sit[\"people\"])\n", + "\n", + " # ---------------- Run simulations ----------------------------\n", + " sim_base = Simulation(situation=sit)\n", + " sim_reform = Simulation(situation=sit, reform=reform)\n", + "\n", + " # ---------------- Pull variables -----------------------------\n", + " # ACA PTC\n", + " ptc_base = sim_base.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + " ptc_reform = sim_reform.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + "\n", + " # Medicaid benefit (adult or child)\n", + " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + "\n", + " # CHIP benefit – variable names differ by PE-US version:\n", + " # * If your build has `chip_cost`, use that.\n", + " # * Otherwise use `chip` (total CHIP dollars) or adjust as needed.\n", + " chip_total = sim_base.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + " per_capita_chip = chip_total / hh_size if hh_size else 0\n", + "\n", + " return dict(\n", + " ptc_baseline = ptc_base,\n", + " ptc_ira_reform = ptc_reform,\n", + " medicaid_cost = medicaid_cost,\n", + " per_capita_chip = per_capita_chip,\n", + " )\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Income targets (family of 3, 2026 FPL thresholds you supplied)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "targets_ny = {\n", + " \"154 % FPL ($41,041)\" : 41_041,\n", + " \"200 % FPL ($53,300)\" : 53_300,\n", + " \"300 % FPL ($79,950)\": 79_950,\n", + " \"405 % FPL ($107,933)\": 107_933,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "rows = []\n", + "for label, inc in targets_ny.items():\n", + " metrics = get_metrics_for_income(situation_new_york, inc)\n", + " rows.append(\n", + " dict(income_label = label, income_usd = inc, **metrics)\n", + " )\n", + "\n", + "ny_ptc_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)\n", + "ny_ptc_df\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "['you', 'your partner', 'your first dependent']\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -295,7 +621,7 @@ }, { 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"cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 1, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", - " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -25,7 +16,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -61,7 +52,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -158,7 +149,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -237,7 +228,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 24, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -259,7 +250,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 25, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -322,7 +313,7 @@ "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172" ] }, - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 25, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -394,7 +385,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 26, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -431,7 +422,7 @@ " 0\n", " 154 % FPL ($41,041)\n", " 41041\n", - " 0.0\n", + " 0.000000\n", " 0.000000\n", " 16480.696289\n", " 0.000000\n", @@ -440,16 +431,25 @@ " 1\n", " 200 % FPL ($53,300)\n", " 53300\n", - " 0.0\n", + " 0.000000\n", " 0.000000\n", " 12930.671875\n", " 829.929932\n", " \n", " \n", " 2\n", + " 300 % FPL ($79,950)\n", + " 79950\n", + " 13847.603516\n", + " 16645.853516\n", + " 0.000000\n", + " 829.929932\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 3\n", " 405 % FPL ($107,933)\n", " 107933\n", - " 0.0\n", + " 0.000000\n", " 12268.548828\n", " 0.000000\n", " 829.929932\n", @@ -460,17 +460,19 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform \\\n", - "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.0 0.000000 \n", - "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.0 0.000000 \n", - "2 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.0 12268.548828 \n", + "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.000000 0.000000 \n", + "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.000000 0.000000 \n", + "2 300 % FPL ($79,950) 79950 13847.603516 16645.853516 \n", + "3 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.000000 12268.548828 \n", "\n", " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n", "0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n", "1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n", - "2 0.000000 829.929932 " + "2 0.000000 829.929932 \n", + "3 0.000000 829.929932 " ] }, - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 26, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -561,22 +563,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "['you', 'your partner', 'your first dependent']\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 27, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -621,7 +615,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 28, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -633,7 +627,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": 29, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -28386,7 +28380,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 30, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -32540,7 +32534,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 31, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -36691,7 +36685,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 32, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -40860,7 +40854,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 33, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { From 01abb8db21852408bde157f24867c035602bec27 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2025 16:22:57 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 11/15] work req --- us/nyt/work_req.ipynb | 353 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 353 insertions(+) create mode 100644 us/nyt/work_req.ipynb diff --git a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..efbe0f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,353 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": { + "vscode": { + "languageId": "javascript" + } + }, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n", + " \"gov.contrib.reconciliation.medicaid_work_requirement.senate.in_effect\": {\n", + " \"2027-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n", + " },\n", + "}, country_id=\"us\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 3, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year = 2029\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "immigration_status = baseline.calculate(\"immigration_status\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 19, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "112.61243085941472" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid_baseline.sum()/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid_reform.sum()/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 24, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", + "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "823.2432315324515" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid_cost_baseline.sum()/1e9" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.0" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 26, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "medicaid_cost_reform.sum()/1e9" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 17, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married employment_income Num_Dependents \\\n", + "4 36.0 ME 0.0 41408.097656 0.0 \n", + "6 44.0 ME 0.0 78030.335938 1.0 \n", + "7 68.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n", + "9 78.0 ME 0.0 84532.859375 0.0 \n", + "11 85.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n", + "\n", + " Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income medicaid_baseline \\\n", + "4 41408.097656 0.0 True \n", + "6 78030.335938 0.0 True \n", + "7 0.000000 0.0 True \n", + "9 84532.859375 0.0 True \n", + "11 0.000000 0.0 True \n", + "\n", + " medicaid_reform immigration_status \n", + "4 True CITIZEN \n", + "6 True CITIZEN \n", + "7 True CITIZEN \n", + "9 False CITIZEN \n", + "11 True CITIZEN " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 17, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "data = {\n", + " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"employment_income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"medicaid_baseline\": medicaid_baseline,\n", + " \"medicaid_reform\": medicaid_reform,\n", + " \"immigration_status\":immigration_status,\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs.head()\n", + "\n", + "# Filter rows where Medicaid is True in the baseline scenario\n", + "# (works if the column is already Boolean)\n", + "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"]]\n", + "\n", + "# ── If the column holds the strings \"true\"/\"false\" instead ──\n", + "# df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].str.lower() == \"true\"]\n", + "\n", + "df_medicaid.head()\n", + "\n" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} From 854572b598b875135bba1a8d2bcaebf0156e07f8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2025 12:33:26 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 12/15] snap --- .DS_Store | Bin 6148 -> 6148 bytes us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 329 ++++++++++++------------ us/nyt/work_req.ipynb | 456 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++------- us/snap_twitter.ipynb | 418 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 944 insertions(+), 259 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/snap_twitter.ipynb diff --git a/.DS_Store b/.DS_Store index 123a5b1a29712e6b55737a05ef366cc06c2e89ca..0e5be69a9c2605a2b4c918373261a25493b47908 100644 GIT binary patch delta 20 bcmZoMXffC@m66@lP)EVY*mCn6#tbn4K_Ugz delta 20 bcmZoMXffC@m66@ZNJqiQ%wqE##tbn4K^O(p diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb index 7a13d5c..a891c1d 100644 --- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb +++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 63, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -15,7 +24,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 64, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -51,7 +60,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 65, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -63,16 +72,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 66, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "40.35911041608722" + "34.53192460674349" ] }, - "execution_count": 66, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -84,16 +93,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 67, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "227.28695912942868" + "227.4910256143858" ] }, - "execution_count": 67, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -105,14 +114,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 68, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "184,751,527 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "179,554,288 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -140,14 +149,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 69, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "23,752,636 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "25,364,518 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -174,14 +183,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 70, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "18,379,449 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "18,865,437 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -216,7 +225,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 71, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -234,7 +243,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 72, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -275,10 +284,10 @@ " PA\n", " 1.0\n", " 3.0\n", - " 94992.562805\n", - " 91.854012\n", + " 122669.62796\n", + " 644.808105\n", " 0.0\n", - " 39058.191406\n", + " 38655.492188\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", @@ -286,13 +295,13 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", - "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 94992.562805 \n", + "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 122669.62796 \n", "\n", " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n", - "23890 91.854012 0.0 39058.191406 " + "23890 644.808105 0.0 38655.492188 " ] }, - "execution_count": 72, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -316,7 +325,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 73, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -356,101 +365,101 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 15170\n", - " 63406\n", - " TX\n", - " 28846.123047\n", - " 20097.220703\n", - " 5.797269e+08\n", - " \n", - " \n", " 11774\n", " 47863\n", " FL\n", - " 43584.601562\n", + " 135658.906250\n", " 17123.369141\n", - " 7.463152e+08\n", + " 2.322938e+09\n", " \n", " \n", " 14377\n", " 60850\n", " TX\n", - " 46835.007812\n", + " 23338.992188\n", " 15904.038086\n", - " 7.448657e+08\n", + " 3.711842e+08\n", " \n", " \n", " 14628\n", " 61712\n", " TX\n", - " 33571.246094\n", + " 22272.599609\n", " 14010.416992\n", - " 4.703472e+08\n", + " 3.120484e+08\n", " \n", " \n", " 6960\n", " 25327\n", " MO\n", - " 12508.783203\n", + " 11227.063477\n", " 13525.498047\n", - " 1.691875e+08\n", + " 1.518516e+08\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 31780\n", + " 135336\n", + " FL\n", + " 103136.664062\n", + " 12612.913086\n", + " 1.300854e+09\n", " \n", " \n", " 8987\n", " 38686\n", " NC\n", - " 15900.470703\n", + " 25387.832031\n", " 12249.720703\n", - " 1.947763e+08\n", + " 3.109939e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 31780\n", - " 135336\n", + " 8576\n", + " 36002\n", + " VA\n", + " 17410.156250\n", + " 10854.941406\n", + " 1.889862e+08\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 10747\n", + " 44495\n", " FL\n", - " 95542.593750\n", - " 12184.659180\n", - " 1.164154e+09\n", + " 56612.566406\n", + " 10672.198242\n", + " 6.041805e+08\n", " \n", " \n", " 19620\n", " 83988\n", " CA\n", - " 12765.500000\n", + " 18989.419922\n", " 10092.767578\n", - " 1.288392e+08\n", - " \n", - " \n", - " 36863\n", - " 159723\n", - " CO\n", - " 16615.960938\n", - " 7437.457031\n", - " 1.235805e+08\n", + " 1.916558e+08\n", " \n", " \n", " 4013\n", " 16074\n", " OH\n", - " 16507.593750\n", + " 46166.144531\n", " 6990.998047\n", - " 1.154046e+08\n", + " 3.227474e+08\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "15170 63406 TX 28846.123047 20097.220703 5.797269e+08\n", - "11774 47863 FL 43584.601562 17123.369141 7.463152e+08\n", - "14377 60850 TX 46835.007812 15904.038086 7.448657e+08\n", - "14628 61712 TX 33571.246094 14010.416992 4.703472e+08\n", - "6960 25327 MO 12508.783203 13525.498047 1.691875e+08\n", - "8987 38686 NC 15900.470703 12249.720703 1.947763e+08\n", - "31780 135336 FL 95542.593750 12184.659180 1.164154e+09\n", - "19620 83988 CA 12765.500000 10092.767578 1.288392e+08\n", - "36863 159723 CO 16615.960938 7437.457031 1.235805e+08\n", - "4013 16074 OH 16507.593750 6990.998047 1.154046e+08" + " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", + "11774 47863 FL 135658.906250 17123.369141 2.322938e+09\n", + "14377 60850 TX 23338.992188 15904.038086 3.711842e+08\n", + "14628 61712 TX 22272.599609 14010.416992 3.120484e+08\n", + "6960 25327 MO 11227.063477 13525.498047 1.518516e+08\n", + "31780 135336 FL 103136.664062 12612.913086 1.300854e+09\n", + "8987 38686 NC 25387.832031 12249.720703 3.109939e+08\n", + "8576 36002 VA 17410.156250 10854.941406 1.889862e+08\n", + "10747 44495 FL 56612.566406 10672.198242 6.041805e+08\n", + "19620 83988 CA 18989.419922 10092.767578 1.916558e+08\n", + "4013 16074 OH 46166.144531 6990.998047 3.227474e+08" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -494,34 +503,34 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 15\n", - " 99\n", + " 7\n", + " 68\n", " ME\n", - " 12122.632812\n", + " 18114.335938\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 24\n", - " 188\n", + " 21\n", + " 134\n", " ME\n", - " 14602.563477\n", + " 10089.783203\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 27\n", - " 206\n", + " 25\n", + " 194\n", " ME\n", - " 13875.028320\n", + " 15542.672852\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 30\n", - " 261\n", + " 27\n", + " 206\n", " ME\n", - " 25312.886719\n", + " 19284.667969\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -529,47 +538,47 @@ " 31\n", " 275\n", " ME\n", - " 19168.126953\n", + " 11475.574219\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 32\n", - " 284\n", + " 37\n", + " 324\n", " ME\n", - " 30920.968750\n", + " 16666.904297\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 35\n", - " 315\n", + " 41\n", + " 339\n", " ME\n", - " 13098.019531\n", + " 16523.361328\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 41\n", - " 339\n", + " 43\n", + " 354\n", " ME\n", - " 18794.173828\n", + " 11761.126953\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 44\n", - " 356\n", + " 51\n", + " 425\n", " ME\n", - " 36464.535156\n", + " 15638.842773\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 47\n", - " 380\n", + " 53\n", + " 437\n", " ME\n", - " 43613.914062\n", + " 10633.168945\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -579,16 +588,16 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "15 99 ME 12122.632812 0.0 0.0\n", - "24 188 ME 14602.563477 0.0 0.0\n", - "27 206 ME 13875.028320 0.0 0.0\n", - "30 261 ME 25312.886719 0.0 0.0\n", - "31 275 ME 19168.126953 0.0 0.0\n", - "32 284 ME 30920.968750 0.0 0.0\n", - "35 315 ME 13098.019531 0.0 0.0\n", - "41 339 ME 18794.173828 0.0 0.0\n", - "44 356 ME 36464.535156 0.0 0.0\n", - "47 380 ME 43613.914062 0.0 0.0" + "7 68 ME 18114.335938 0.0 0.0\n", + "21 134 ME 10089.783203 0.0 0.0\n", + "25 194 ME 15542.672852 0.0 0.0\n", + "27 206 ME 19284.667969 0.0 0.0\n", + "31 275 ME 11475.574219 0.0 0.0\n", + "37 324 ME 16666.904297 0.0 0.0\n", + "41 339 ME 16523.361328 0.0 0.0\n", + "43 354 ME 11761.126953 0.0 0.0\n", + "51 425 ME 15638.842773 0.0 0.0\n", + "53 437 ME 10633.168945 0.0 0.0" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -634,7 +643,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 74, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -680,7 +689,7 @@ " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " 10092.767578\n", - " 12765.5\n", + " 18989.419922\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", @@ -690,11 +699,11 @@ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", "19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n", "\n", - " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", - "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 12765.5 " + " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", + "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 18989.419922 " ] }, - "execution_count": 74, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -705,14 +714,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 75, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,264.49\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,442.32\n" ] } ], @@ -735,14 +744,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 76, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,654.84\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,663.64\n" ] } ], @@ -772,16 +781,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 92, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "30.206960672172997" + "32.12809192838201" ] }, - "execution_count": 92, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -811,7 +820,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 104, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -837,16 +846,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$102", + "$127", "$141", - "$148", - "$156", - "$191", - "$464", - "$233", - "$281", - "$161", - "$108" + "$120", + "$164", + "$206", + "$256", + "$214", + "$668", + "$185", + "$83" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -863,16 +872,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 102.4264144897461, - 140.80027770996094, - 147.8699188232422, - 156.31858825683594, - 191.30772399902344, - 463.7459716796875, - 232.62808227539062, - 280.5216979980469, - 161.26075744628906, - 107.7364501953125 + 127.10087585449219, + 140.969970703125, + 119.75225067138672, + 163.75502014160156, + 205.8011016845703, + 255.56259155273438, + 213.85777282714844, + 667.6323852539062, + 184.54965209960938, + 83.39998626708984 ] } ], @@ -1751,16 +1760,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$102", + "$127", "$141", - "$148", - "$156", - "$191", - "$464", - "$233", - "$281", - "$161", - "$108" + "$120", + "$164", + "$206", + "$256", + "$214", + "$668", + "$185", + "$83" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -1777,16 +1786,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 102.4264144897461, - 140.80027770996094, - 147.8699188232422, - 156.31858825683594, - 191.30772399902344, - 463.7459716796875, - 232.62808227539062, - 280.5216979980469, - 161.26075744628906, - 107.7364501953125 + 127.10087585449219, + 140.969970703125, + 119.75225067138672, + 163.75502014160156, + 205.8011016845703, + 255.56259155273438, + 213.85777282714844, + 667.6323852539062, + 184.54965209960938, + 83.39998626708984 ] } ], diff --git a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb index efbe0f3..1b6715d 100644 --- a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb +++ b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb @@ -39,6 +39,17 @@ "}, country_id=\"us\")\n" ] }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": { + "vscode": { + "languageId": "javascript" + } + }, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 3, @@ -50,42 +61,44 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ - "year = 2029\n", + "year = 2028\n", + "age = baseline.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", - "immigration_status = baseline.calculate(\"immigration_status\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", - "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", - "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" + "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "disability = baseline.calculate(\"is_disabled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "net_income = baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ - "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)" + "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "112.61243085941472" + "88.03708112231564" ] }, - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -96,16 +109,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "0.0" + "66.17075737452024" ] }, - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -116,26 +129,26 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ - "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n", - "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)" + "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "823.2432315324515" + "754.2560939202893" ] }, - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -146,16 +159,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "0.0" + "583.9976766367972" ] }, - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -191,108 +204,165 @@ " \n", " \n", " household_id\n", + " age\n", " State\n", " Married\n", - " employment_income\n", " Num_Dependents\n", - " Employment_Income\n", - " Self_Employment_Income\n", + " net_income\n", " medicaid_baseline\n", " medicaid_reform\n", - " immigration_status\n", + " disability\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 4\n", - " 36.0\n", - " ME\n", + " 25763\n", + " 108937\n", + " 58.0\n", + " IL\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 76981.750000\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 1.0\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 15052\n", + " 63037\n", + " 60.0\n", + " TX\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 3.0\n", + " 66695.476562\n", " 0.0\n", - " 41408.097656\n", " 0.0\n", - " 41408.097656\n", " 0.0\n", - " True\n", - " True\n", - " CITIZEN\n", " \n", " \n", - " 6\n", - " 44.0\n", - " ME\n", + " 23671\n", + " 102468\n", + " 138.0\n", + " PA\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 36383.925781\n", + " 3.0\n", + " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " 78030.335938\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 29397\n", + " 125991\n", + " 127.0\n", + " VA\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 2.0\n", + " 85631.062500\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 35968\n", + " 153372\n", + " 133.0\n", + " TX\n", " 1.0\n", - " 78030.335938\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 55173.074219\n", + " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " True\n", - " True\n", - " CITIZEN\n", + " 1.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 7\n", - " 68.0\n", - " ME\n", + " 177\n", + " 1452\n", + " 168.0\n", + " NH\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 277564.562500\n", " 0.0\n", - " 0.000000\n", " 0.0\n", - " 0.000000\n", " 0.0\n", - " True\n", - " True\n", - " CITIZEN\n", " \n", " \n", - " 9\n", - " 78.0\n", - " ME\n", + " 40669\n", + " 174681\n", + " 145.0\n", + " CA\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 108951.515625\n", " 0.0\n", - " 84532.859375\n", " 0.0\n", - " 84532.859375\n", " 0.0\n", - " True\n", - " False\n", - " CITIZEN\n", " \n", " \n", - " 11\n", - " 85.0\n", - " ME\n", + " 6118\n", + " 22615\n", + " 21.0\n", + " WI\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 60602.281250\n", " 0.0\n", - " 0.000000\n", " 0.0\n", - " 0.000000\n", + " 1.0\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 39910\n", + " 172254\n", + " 85.0\n", + " CA\n", + " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " True\n", - " True\n", - " CITIZEN\n", + " 72438.218750\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 1.0\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 3931\n", + " 15787\n", + " 145.0\n", + " OH\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 2.0\n", + " 116171.570312\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 1.0\n", + " 2.0\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State Married employment_income Num_Dependents \\\n", - "4 36.0 ME 0.0 41408.097656 0.0 \n", - "6 44.0 ME 0.0 78030.335938 1.0 \n", - "7 68.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n", - "9 78.0 ME 0.0 84532.859375 0.0 \n", - "11 85.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n", + " household_id age State Married Num_Dependents net_income \\\n", + "25763 108937 58.0 IL 0.0 0.0 76981.750000 \n", + "15052 63037 60.0 TX 1.0 3.0 66695.476562 \n", + "23671 102468 138.0 PA 0.0 0.0 36383.925781 \n", + "29397 125991 127.0 VA 1.0 2.0 85631.062500 \n", + "35968 153372 133.0 TX 1.0 1.0 55173.074219 \n", + "177 1452 168.0 NH 1.0 0.0 277564.562500 \n", + "40669 174681 145.0 CA 1.0 0.0 108951.515625 \n", + "6118 22615 21.0 WI 0.0 0.0 60602.281250 \n", + "39910 172254 85.0 CA 0.0 0.0 72438.218750 \n", + "3931 15787 145.0 OH 1.0 2.0 116171.570312 \n", "\n", - " Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income medicaid_baseline \\\n", - "4 41408.097656 0.0 True \n", - "6 78030.335938 0.0 True \n", - "7 0.000000 0.0 True \n", - "9 84532.859375 0.0 True \n", - "11 0.000000 0.0 True \n", - "\n", - " medicaid_reform immigration_status \n", - "4 True CITIZEN \n", - "6 True CITIZEN \n", - "7 True CITIZEN \n", - "9 False CITIZEN \n", - "11 True CITIZEN " + " medicaid_baseline medicaid_reform disability \n", + "25763 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "15052 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "23671 3.0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "29397 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "35968 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "177 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "40669 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n", + "6118 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "39910 1.0 1.0 1.0 \n", + "3931 1.0 1.0 2.0 " ] }, "execution_count": 17, @@ -303,30 +373,218 @@ "source": [ "data = {\n", " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"age\": age,\n", " \"State\": state,\n", " \"Married\": married,\n", - " \"employment_income\": employment_income,\n", " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", - " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", - " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", + " \"net_income\": net_income,\n", " \"medicaid_baseline\": medicaid_baseline,\n", " \"medicaid_reform\": medicaid_reform,\n", - " \"immigration_status\":immigration_status,\n", + " \"disability\": disability,\n", "}\n", "\n", "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", - "df_outputs.head()\n", - "\n", - "# Filter rows where Medicaid is True in the baseline scenario\n", - "# (works if the column is already Boolean)\n", - "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"]]\n", - "\n", - "# ── If the column holds the strings \"true\"/\"false\" instead ──\n", - "# df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].str.lower() == \"true\"]\n", - "\n", - "df_medicaid.head()\n", + "df_outputs.sample(n=10) \n", "\n" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idageStateMarriedNum_Dependentsnet_incomemedicaid_baselinemedicaid_reformdisability
39714171625190.0CA1.00.0266112.4375002.01.02.0
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\n", + "
" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id age State Married Num_Dependents net_income \\\n", + "39714 171625 190.0 CA 1.0 0.0 266112.437500 \n", + "25746 108895 162.0 IL 1.0 1.0 113722.921875 \n", + "34089 145258 123.0 AR 1.0 0.0 52366.300781 \n", + "21260 93908 60.0 MA 0.0 0.0 12498.601562 \n", + "39141 169644 31.0 CA 0.0 1.0 20294.919922 \n", + "5781 21507 87.0 MI 0.0 1.0 126903.640625 \n", + "25970 109575 151.0 IL 1.0 1.0 77474.335938 \n", + "35709 152511 145.0 TX 1.0 3.0 54013.031250 \n", + "21664 96019 147.0 CT 0.0 0.0 105085.656250 \n", + "25351 107589 52.0 IL 0.0 2.0 24615.585938 \n", + "\n", + " medicaid_baseline medicaid_reform disability \n", + "39714 2.0 1.0 2.0 \n", + "25746 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "34089 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "21260 2.0 1.0 0.0 \n", + "39141 2.0 2.0 0.0 \n", + "5781 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n", + "25970 2.0 1.0 0.0 \n", + "35709 2.0 2.0 0.0 \n", + "21664 1.0 1.0 0.0 \n", + "25351 3.0 3.0 1.0 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 18, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].gt(0)]\n", + "df_medicaid.sample(n=10) \n" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/snap_twitter.ipynb b/us/snap_twitter.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cef92ea --- /dev/null +++ b/us/snap_twitter.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,418 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year =2024\n", + "\n", + "household_size = baseline.calculate(\"household_size\", map_to= \"household\", period=year)\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", map_to= \"household\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 3, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "data = {\n", + " \"household_size\": household_size,\n", + " \"snap\": snap,\n", + "}" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Households getting maximum snap: 51343.10517691474\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "# Single month keeps it simple\n", + "period = \"2024-01\"\n", + "\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n", + "\n", + "mask = (unit_size == 4) & np.isclose(snap, 973, atol=1)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households getting maximum snap: \", float((mask * weights).sum()))\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "2.11511349654758" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "# Single month keeps it simple\n", + "period = \"2024-01\"\n", + "\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n", + "\n", + "(unit_size == 4)[snap >= 1].sum()\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "1455.7" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "snap[unit_size == 4].max()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "0.000000 4561\n", + "973.000000 184\n", + "95.000000 3\n", + "363.399963 2\n", + "705.400024 2\n", + "548.199951 2\n", + "744.700012 2\n", + "790.299988 2\n", + "573.400024 2\n", + "488.499969 2\n", + "Name: count, dtype: int64" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "pd.Series(snap[unit_size == 4]).value_counts().head(10)\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "4 Person Households that get Maximum SNAP Allotment : 2271.6703824460506\n", + "Median SNAP for Family of 4: $704\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import microdf as mdf\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "# Single month keeps it simple\n", + "period = \"2024-01\"\n", + "\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n", + "\n", + "mask = (unit_size == 4) & np.isclose(snap, 750, atol=1)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"4 Person Households that get Maximum SNAP Allotment : \", float((mask * weights).sum()))\n", + "\n", + "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n", + "\n", + "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n", + "mask = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 0)\n", + "\n", + "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n", + "\n", + "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n", + "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n", + "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 4: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Median SNAP for Family of 2: $270\n", + "Median SNAP for Family of 1: $114\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n", + "\n", + "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n", + "mask = (unit_size == 2) & (snap > 0)\n", + "\n", + "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n", + "\n", + "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n", + "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n", + "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 2: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n", + "\n", + "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n", + "mask = (unit_size == 1) & (snap > 0)\n", + "\n", + "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n", + "\n", + "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n", + "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n", + "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 1: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Unweighted households: 583\n", + "Weighted households: 2,264,703\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Count 4-person HOUSEHOLDS that receive any SNAP during 2024\n", + "period = 2024 # annual → sums the 12 monthly amounts\n", + "\n", + "hh_size = baseline.calculate(\"household_size\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n", + "snap_yr = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n", + "\n", + "mask = (hh_size == 4) & (snap_yr > 0) # any positive amount ⇒ got SNAP\n", + "\n", + "n_unwtd = int(mask.sum()) # simple count of CPS households\n", + "n_wtd = float((mask * weights).sum()) # population-weighted total\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Unweighted households: {n_unwtd:,}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted households: {n_wtd:,.0f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "4 Person Households that get above $965 in SNAP: 51343.36664519112\n", + "\n", + "Statistics for 4-person households getting > $965 SNAP:\n", + " Weighted median: $973\n", + " Weighted mean: $973\n", + " Min benefit: $973\n", + " Max benefit: $1,456\n", + "\n", + "Of all 4-person households getting SNAP:\n", + " Total households: 175,704\n", + " Getting > $965: 51,343 (29.2%)\n", + "\n", + "Benefit distribution for 4-person households:\n", + " >= $ 500: 127,950 ( 72.8%)\n", + " >= $ 750: 79,433 ( 45.2%)\n", + " >= $ 965: 51,343 ( 29.2%)\n", + " >= $1000: 0 ( 0.0%)\n", + " >= $1200: 0 ( 0.0%)\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import microdf as mdf\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", + "# Single month keeps it simple\n", + "period = \"2024-01\"\n", + "\n", + "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n", + "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n", + "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n", + " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Analysis 1: Count of 4-person households getting above $965 ──\n", + "mask_above_965 = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 965)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"4 Person Households that get above $965 in SNAP: \", float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()))\n", + "print()\n", + "\n", + "# ── Analysis 2: Distribution statistics for these households ──\n", + "# Create dataframe for households above $965\n", + "df_above_965 = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"benefit\": snap[mask_above_965], \n", + " \"wt\": weights[mask_above_965]\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "if len(df_above_965) > 0:\n", + " # Calculate statistics\n", + " median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df_above_965, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n", + " mean_wtd = float((df_above_965[\"benefit\"] * df_above_965[\"wt\"]).sum() / df_above_965[\"wt\"].sum())\n", + " \n", + " # Min and max benefits\n", + " min_benefit = float(df_above_965[\"benefit\"].min())\n", + " max_benefit = float(df_above_965[\"benefit\"].max())\n", + " \n", + " print(f\"Statistics for 4-person households getting > $965 SNAP:\")\n", + " print(f\" Weighted median: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n", + " print(f\" Weighted mean: ${mean_wtd:,.0f}\")\n", + " print(f\" Min benefit: ${min_benefit:,.0f}\")\n", + " print(f\" Max benefit: ${max_benefit:,.0f}\")\n", + " print()\n", + "\n", + "# ── Analysis 3: Compare to all 4-person households getting SNAP ──\n", + "mask_all_snap = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 0)\n", + "df_all_snap = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"benefit\": snap[mask_all_snap], \n", + " \"wt\": weights[mask_all_snap]\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate what percentage get above $965\n", + "total_4person_snap = float((mask_all_snap * weights).sum())\n", + "pct_above_965 = (float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()) / total_4person_snap * 100) if total_4person_snap > 0 else 0\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Of all 4-person households getting SNAP:\")\n", + "print(f\" Total households: {total_4person_snap:,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Getting > $965: {float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()):,.0f} ({pct_above_965:.1f}%)\")\n", + "\n", + "# ── Analysis 4: Look at specific benefit thresholds ──\n", + "print(\"\\nBenefit distribution for 4-person households:\")\n", + "thresholds = [500, 750, 965, 1000, 1200]\n", + "for threshold in thresholds:\n", + " mask_threshold = (unit_size == 4) & (snap >= threshold)\n", + " count = float((mask_threshold * weights).sum())\n", + " pct = (count / total_4person_snap * 100) if total_4person_snap > 0 else 0\n", + " print(f\" >= ${threshold:4d}: {count:10,.0f} ({pct:5.1f}%)\")" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} From 621edb84fac26f1ae3a1bb0ac0d7977a9e4684cc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:02:08 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 13/15] charts --- us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 1632 ++++++++++++++----------- 1 file changed, 936 insertions(+), 696 deletions(-) diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb index 07f78cf..b8a630a 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -16,7 +25,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -52,7 +61,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -149,7 +158,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -228,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -250,7 +259,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -313,7 +322,7 @@ "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172" ] }, - "execution_count": 25, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -385,7 +394,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 30, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -415,6 +424,7 @@ " ptc_ira_reform\n", " medicaid_cost\n", " per_capita_chip\n", + " SLCSP\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", @@ -426,6 +436,7 @@ " 0.000000\n", " 16480.696289\n", " 0.000000\n", + " 0.000000\n", " \n", " \n", " 1\n", @@ -435,6 +446,7 @@ " 0.000000\n", " 12930.671875\n", " 829.929932\n", + " 0.000000\n", " \n", " \n", " 2\n", @@ -444,6 +456,7 @@ " 16645.853516\n", " 0.000000\n", " 829.929932\n", + " 21442.853516\n", " \n", " \n", " 3\n", @@ -453,6 +466,7 @@ " 12268.548828\n", " 0.000000\n", " 829.929932\n", + " 0.000000\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", @@ -465,14 +479,14 @@ "2 300 % FPL ($79,950) 79950 13847.603516 16645.853516 \n", "3 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.000000 12268.548828 \n", "\n", - " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n", - "0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n", - "1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n", - "2 0.000000 829.929932 \n", - "3 0.000000 829.929932 " + " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip SLCSP \n", + "0 16480.696289 0.000000 0.000000 \n", + "1 12930.671875 829.929932 0.000000 \n", + "2 0.000000 829.929932 21442.853516 \n", + "3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 " ] }, - "execution_count": 26, + "execution_count": 30, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -523,9 +537,10 @@ " # ACA PTC\n", " ptc_base = sim_base.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", " ptc_reform = sim_reform.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + " SLCSP = sim_base.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", "\n", " # Medicaid benefit (adult or child)\n", - " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", + " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n", "\n", " # CHIP benefit – variable names differ by PE-US version:\n", " # * If your build has `chip_cost`, use that.\n", @@ -538,6 +553,7 @@ " ptc_ira_reform = ptc_reform,\n", " medicaid_cost = medicaid_cost,\n", " per_capita_chip = per_capita_chip,\n", + " SLCSP = SLCSP\n", " )\n", "\n", "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", @@ -570,20 +586,238 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": 28, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "[ 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", + " 0. 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last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[28], line 7\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold_net_income_including_health_benefits\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_slcsp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mslcsp\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m----> 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_new_york_slcsp\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmedian\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 9\u001b[0m reform_new_york_per_capita_chip \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mper_capita_chip\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 10\u001b[0m reform_new_york_aca_ptc \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124maca_ptc\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n", + "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_new_york_aca_ptc = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "\n", + "baseline_new_york_slcsp = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "\n", "reform_new_york_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_new_york_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "reform_new_york_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_new_york_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "\n", "\n", @@ -594,13 +828,13 @@ "household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_per_capita_chip = simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_aca_ptc = simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "baseline_texas_medicaid_cost = simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "baseline_texas_medicaid_cost = simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "\n", + "baseline_texas_slcsp = simulation_texas.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "\n", "reform_texas_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_texas_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", - "reform_texas_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "reform_texas_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "reform_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "\n", "\n", @@ -615,7 +849,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 28, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -627,7 +861,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 29, + "execution_count": 31, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -28183,7 +28417,7 @@ "xaxis": { "range": [ 0, - 400000 + 200000 ], "tickformat": "$,.0f", "title": { @@ -28362,7 +28596,7 @@ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Benefit Amount',\n", " legend_title='Programs',\n", - " 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1.0688125491142273, - 1.0688437819480896, - 1.0688437819480896, - 1.0551875233650208, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, + 1, 0.9877499938011169, 0.9459999799728394, 0.9459999799728394, @@ -39861,65 +40095,65 @@ 0.9459999799728394, 0.9459999799728394, 0.9459999799728394, - 0.9471874833106995, - 0.9586875438690186, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670625329017639, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 0.9670000076293945, - 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0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394, + 0.9459999799728394 ] } ], @@ -40782,6 +41016,10 @@ } }, "yaxis": { + "range": [ + -1, + 1 + ], "tickformat": ".0%", "title": { "text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)" @@ -40800,61 +41038,59 @@ " \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", - "baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", + "baseline_raw = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", " map_to=\"household\",\n", " period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", - "reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", + "reform_raw = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\n", " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", " map_to=\"household\",\n", " period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", + "# ---------- Limit MRT values to ±100 % ----------\n", + "baseline_mtr = np.clip(baseline_raw, -1, 1) # -1 ↔ –100 %, 1 ↔ 100 %\n", + "reform_mtr = np.clip(reform_raw, -1, 1)\n", + "\n", "# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n", "fig_new_york_mtr = go.Figure()\n", "\n", - "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n", "fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_new_york,\n", - " y=baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " y=baseline_mtr,\n", " mode='lines',\n", " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)',\n", " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n", "fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_new_york,\n", - " y=reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", + " y=reform_mtr,\n", " mode='lines',\n", " name='Marginal Tax Rate (Reform)',\n", " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", - "# Layout\n", "fig_new_york_mtr.update_layout(\n", " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n", " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", " legend_title='Scenario',\n", " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n", - " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes MTR is in decimal form (e.g., 0.42 → 42%)\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%', range=[-1, 1]), # keep the same visual bounds\n", " height=600,\n", " width=1000\n", ")\n", "\n", - "# Optional formatting helper if you use one elsewhere\n", "fig_new_york_mtr = format_fig(fig_new_york_mtr)\n", - "\n", - "# Display\n", "fig_new_york_mtr.show()\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 33, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -41712,8 +41948,8 @@ 0.7865976095199585, 0.7884023189544678, 0.7829999923706055, - -18.218719482421875, - -18.184030532836914, + -1, + -1, 0.8552734851837158, 0.8611522912979126, 0.856624960899353, @@ -41726,7 +41962,7 @@ 0.8067656755447388, 0.8509765863418579, 0.9453905820846558, - 1.0307109355926514, + 1, 0.9737656116485596, 0.8086953163146973, 0.6120624542236328, @@ -41737,8 +41973,8 @@ 0.5586718320846558, 0.5937617421150208, 0.5990468263626099, - 1.0339374542236328, - 1.0392265319824219, + 1, + 1, 0.7274609804153442, 0.765078067779541, 0.6236406564712524, @@ -41828,8 +42064,8 @@ 0.6430000066757202, 0.6430000066757202, 0.6430000066757202, - 4.670156478881836, - 4.565812587738037, + 1, + 1, 0.45299994945526123, 0.45299994945526123, 0.45299994945526123, @@ -43326,8 +43562,8 @@ 0.7865976095199585, 0.7884023189544678, 0.7829999923706055, - -19.392004013061523, - -19.397401809692383, + -1, + -1, 0.7866054773330688, 0.7883983850479126, 0.7829999923706055, @@ -44951,6 +45187,10 @@ } }, "yaxis": { + "range": [ + -1, + 1 + ], "tickformat": ".0%", "title": { "text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)" @@ -44964,27 +45204,32 @@ } ], "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", "# ---------- Pull the inputs ----------\n", "household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\n", " \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", - "baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\n", + "baseline_raw = simulation_texas.calculate(\n", " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", " map_to=\"household\",\n", " period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", - "reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\n", + "reform_raw = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\n", " \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n", " map_to=\"household\",\n", " period=2026\n", ")\n", "\n", + "# ---------- Limit MRT values to ±100 % ----------\n", + "baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = np.clip(baseline_raw, -1, 1)\n", + "reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = np.clip(reform_raw, -1, 1)\n", + "\n", "# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n", "fig_texas_mtr = go.Figure()\n", "\n", - "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n", "fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_texas,\n", " y=baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", @@ -44993,7 +45238,6 @@ " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n", "fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_texas,\n", " y=reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n", @@ -45002,22 +45246,18 @@ " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", - "# Layout\n", "fig_texas_mtr.update_layout(\n", " title='Texas Household (Couple) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n", " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", " yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n", " legend_title='Scenario',\n", " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n", - " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes rate is in decimal form (0.42 → 42 %)\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%', range=[-1, 1]), # stays consistent with the clipping\n", " height=600,\n", " width=1000\n", ")\n", "\n", - "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", "fig_texas_mtr = format_fig(fig_texas_mtr)\n", - "\n", - "# Display\n", "fig_texas_mtr.show()\n" ] } From 7509a8c8bf33c595aa861cb7deb07d2e6dea5048 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2025 16:54:19 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 14/15] rename --- us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 400 +- ...olds.ipynb => aca_reform_households.ipynb} | 7335 ++++++++++++++--- 2 files changed, 6292 insertions(+), 1443 deletions(-) rename us/medicaid/{medicaid_households.ipynb => aca_reform_households.ipynb} (90%) diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb index a891c1d..68c5b94 100644 --- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb +++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "34.53192460674349" + "34.4898908313967" ] }, "execution_count": 4, @@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "227.4910256143858" + "228.37424343962823" ] }, "execution_count": 5, @@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "179,554,288 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "191,573,928 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "25,364,518 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "24,630,096 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "18,865,437 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "20,074,006 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -272,33 +272,31 @@ " Married\n", " Num_Dependents\n", " Employment_Income\n", - " Self_Employment_Income\n", " aca_baseline\n", " aca_reform\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 23890\n", - " 103176\n", - " PA\n", + " 600\n", + " 4428\n", + " MA\n", " 1.0\n", - " 3.0\n", - " 122669.62796\n", - " 644.808105\n", + " 4.0\n", + " 52859.65625\n", + " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " 38655.492188\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", - "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 122669.62796 \n", + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", "\n", - " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n", - "23890 644.808105 0.0 38655.492188 " + " aca_baseline aca_reform \n", + "600 0.0 0.0 " ] }, "execution_count": 10, @@ -314,13 +312,14 @@ " \"Married\": married,\n", " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", - " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n", " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", " \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n", - " }\n", + "\n", + " }\n", + "\n", "\n", "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", - "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n" + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n" ] }, { @@ -365,101 +364,101 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 11774\n", - " 47863\n", + " 15170\n", + " 63406\n", + " TX\n", + " 96633.976562\n", + " 20097.220703\n", + " 1.942074e+09\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 11278\n", + " 46357\n", " FL\n", - " 135658.906250\n", - " 17123.369141\n", - " 2.322938e+09\n", + " 63879.199219\n", + " 15559.541992\n", + " 9.939311e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 14377\n", - " 60850\n", - " TX\n", - " 23338.992188\n", - " 15904.038086\n", - " 3.711842e+08\n", + " 30957\n", + " 132558\n", + " GA\n", + " 34982.687500\n", + " 14077.200195\n", + " 4.924583e+08\n", " \n", " \n", " 14628\n", " 61712\n", " TX\n", - " 22272.599609\n", + " 15532.655273\n", " 14010.416992\n", - " 3.120484e+08\n", + " 2.176190e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 6960\n", - " 25327\n", - " MO\n", - " 11227.063477\n", - " 13525.498047\n", - " 1.518516e+08\n", - " \n", - " \n", - " 31780\n", - " 135336\n", + " 11156\n", + " 46034\n", " FL\n", - " 103136.664062\n", - " 12612.913086\n", - " 1.300854e+09\n", + " 30328.830078\n", + " 9943.345703\n", + " 3.015700e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 8987\n", - " 38686\n", - " NC\n", - " 25387.832031\n", - " 12249.720703\n", - " 3.109939e+08\n", + " 31402\n", + " 133962\n", + " FL\n", + " 21518.343750\n", + " 9887.317383\n", + " 2.127587e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 8576\n", - " 36002\n", - " VA\n", - " 17410.156250\n", - " 10854.941406\n", - " 1.889862e+08\n", + " 4013\n", + " 16074\n", + " OH\n", + " 11105.104492\n", + " 6990.998047\n", + " 7.763576e+07\n", " \n", " \n", - " 10747\n", - " 44495\n", + " 31632\n", + " 134802\n", " FL\n", - " 56612.566406\n", - " 10672.198242\n", - " 6.041805e+08\n", + " 23929.857422\n", + " 5788.573242\n", + " 1.385197e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 19620\n", - " 83988\n", - " CA\n", - " 18989.419922\n", - " 10092.767578\n", - " 1.916558e+08\n", + " 9387\n", + " 39878\n", + " NC\n", + " 23245.363281\n", + " 5382.159180\n", + " 1.251102e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 4013\n", - " 16074\n", - " OH\n", - " 46166.144531\n", - " 6990.998047\n", - " 3.227474e+08\n", + " 9643\n", + " 40712\n", + " SC\n", + " 13224.298828\n", + " 4779.596680\n", + " 6.320681e+07\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "11774 47863 FL 135658.906250 17123.369141 2.322938e+09\n", - "14377 60850 TX 23338.992188 15904.038086 3.711842e+08\n", - "14628 61712 TX 22272.599609 14010.416992 3.120484e+08\n", - "6960 25327 MO 11227.063477 13525.498047 1.518516e+08\n", - "31780 135336 FL 103136.664062 12612.913086 1.300854e+09\n", - "8987 38686 NC 25387.832031 12249.720703 3.109939e+08\n", - "8576 36002 VA 17410.156250 10854.941406 1.889862e+08\n", - "10747 44495 FL 56612.566406 10672.198242 6.041805e+08\n", - "19620 83988 CA 18989.419922 10092.767578 1.916558e+08\n", - "4013 16074 OH 46166.144531 6990.998047 3.227474e+08" + " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", + "15170 63406 TX 96633.976562 20097.220703 1.942074e+09\n", + "11278 46357 FL 63879.199219 15559.541992 9.939311e+08\n", + "30957 132558 GA 34982.687500 14077.200195 4.924583e+08\n", + "14628 61712 TX 15532.655273 14010.416992 2.176190e+08\n", + "11156 46034 FL 30328.830078 9943.345703 3.015700e+08\n", + "31402 133962 FL 21518.343750 9887.317383 2.127587e+08\n", + "4013 16074 OH 11105.104492 6990.998047 7.763576e+07\n", + "31632 134802 FL 23929.857422 5788.573242 1.385197e+08\n", + "9387 39878 NC 23245.363281 5382.159180 1.251102e+08\n", + "9643 40712 SC 13224.298828 4779.596680 6.320681e+07" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -503,18 +502,10 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 7\n", - " 68\n", - " ME\n", - " 18114.335938\n", - " 0.0\n", - " 0.0\n", - " \n", - " \n", - " 21\n", - " 134\n", + " 9\n", + " 78\n", " ME\n", - " 10089.783203\n", + " 20615.609375\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -522,47 +513,47 @@ " 25\n", " 194\n", " ME\n", - " 15542.672852\n", + " 14024.491211\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 27\n", - " 206\n", + " 26\n", + " 199\n", " ME\n", - " 19284.667969\n", + " 17028.466797\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 31\n", - " 275\n", + " 38\n", + " 326\n", " ME\n", - " 11475.574219\n", + " 14531.310547\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 37\n", - " 324\n", + " 44\n", + " 356\n", " ME\n", - " 16666.904297\n", + " 15670.582031\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 41\n", - " 339\n", + " 47\n", + " 380\n", " ME\n", - " 16523.361328\n", + " 20000.724609\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 43\n", - " 354\n", + " 48\n", + " 407\n", " ME\n", - " 11761.126953\n", + " 10724.878906\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -570,7 +561,7 @@ " 51\n", " 425\n", " ME\n", - " 15638.842773\n", + " 15117.451172\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -578,7 +569,15 @@ " 53\n", " 437\n", " ME\n", - " 10633.168945\n", + " 11405.429688\n", + " 0.0\n", + " 0.0\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 58\n", + " 475\n", + " ME\n", + " 12578.248047\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -588,16 +587,16 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "7 68 ME 18114.335938 0.0 0.0\n", - "21 134 ME 10089.783203 0.0 0.0\n", - "25 194 ME 15542.672852 0.0 0.0\n", - "27 206 ME 19284.667969 0.0 0.0\n", - "31 275 ME 11475.574219 0.0 0.0\n", - "37 324 ME 16666.904297 0.0 0.0\n", - "41 339 ME 16523.361328 0.0 0.0\n", - "43 354 ME 11761.126953 0.0 0.0\n", - "51 425 ME 15638.842773 0.0 0.0\n", - "53 437 ME 10633.168945 0.0 0.0" + "9 78 ME 20615.609375 0.0 0.0\n", + "25 194 ME 14024.491211 0.0 0.0\n", + "26 199 ME 17028.466797 0.0 0.0\n", + "38 326 ME 14531.310547 0.0 0.0\n", + "44 356 ME 15670.582031 0.0 0.0\n", + "47 380 ME 20000.724609 0.0 0.0\n", + "48 407 ME 10724.878906 0.0 0.0\n", + "51 425 ME 15117.451172 0.0 0.0\n", + "53 437 ME 11405.429688 0.0 0.0\n", + "58 475 ME 12578.248047 0.0 0.0" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -672,7 +671,6 @@ " Married\n", " Num_Dependents\n", " Employment_Income\n", - " Self_Employment_Income\n", " aca_baseline\n", " aca_reform\n", " weight\n", @@ -680,27 +678,26 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 19620\n", - " 83988\n", - " CA\n", + " 600\n", + " 4428\n", + " MA\n", " 1.0\n", - " 2.0\n", - " 160877.21875\n", + " 4.0\n", + " 52859.65625\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " 10092.767578\n", - " 18989.419922\n", + " 23814.501953\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", - "19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n", + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", "\n", - " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", - "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 18989.419922 " + " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", + "600 0.0 0.0 23814.501953 " ] }, "execution_count": 12, @@ -709,7 +706,7 @@ } ], "source": [ - "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 83988]\n" + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n" ] }, { @@ -721,7 +718,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,442.32\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,239.40\n" ] } ], @@ -751,7 +748,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,663.64\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,784.16\n" ] } ], @@ -783,14 +780,51 @@ "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $4,797.60\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist (already done above)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Keep only households that *gain* a PTC (reform > 0, baseline == 0)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "mask_reform_only = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] == 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n", + "df_reform_only = df_outputs[mask_reform_only]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "avg_net_change_reform_only_hh = (\n", + " (df_reform_only[\"net_change\"] * df_reform_only[\"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_reform_only[\"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC \"\n", + " f\"under the reform: ${avg_net_change_reform_only_hh:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "32.12809192838201" + "29.856163170330728" ] }, - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -820,7 +854,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -846,16 +880,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$127", - "$141", - "$120", - "$164", - "$206", - "$256", - "$214", - "$668", - "$185", - "$83" + "$47", + "$126", + "$147", + "$165", + "$209", + "$252", + "$244", + "$281", + "$390", + "$125" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -872,16 +906,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 127.10087585449219, - 140.969970703125, - 119.75225067138672, - 163.75502014160156, - 205.8011016845703, - 255.56259155273438, - 213.85777282714844, - 667.6323852539062, - 184.54965209960938, - 83.39998626708984 + 47.242431640625, + 125.9588623046875, + 146.8796844482422, + 164.8943634033203, + 209.1598663330078, + 251.72093200683594, + 243.78147888183594, + 280.51556396484375, + 389.531982421875, + 124.53172302246094 ] } ], @@ -1760,16 +1794,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$127", - "$141", - "$120", - "$164", - "$206", - "$256", - "$214", - "$668", - "$185", - "$83" + "$47", + "$126", + "$147", + "$165", + "$209", + "$252", + "$244", + "$281", + "$390", + "$125" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -1786,16 +1820,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 127.10087585449219, - 140.969970703125, - 119.75225067138672, - 163.75502014160156, - 205.8011016845703, - 255.56259155273438, - 213.85777282714844, - 667.6323852539062, - 184.54965209960938, - 83.39998626708984 + 47.242431640625, + 125.9588623046875, + 146.8796844482422, + 164.8943634033203, + 209.1598663330078, + 251.72093200683594, + 243.78147888183594, + 280.51556396484375, + 389.531982421875, + 124.53172302246094 ] } ], diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb similarity index 90% rename from us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb rename to us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb index b8a630a..e761e03 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb @@ -2,18 +2,9 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 1, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", - " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -25,7 +16,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -61,7 +52,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -158,7 +149,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -237,7 +228,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -259,7 +250,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -322,7 +313,7 @@ "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172" ] }, - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -394,7 +385,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -486,7 +477,7 @@ "3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 " ] }, - "execution_count": 30, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -586,227 +577,9 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 28, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "[ 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 0. 0. 0. 0.\n", - " 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"\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[28], line 7\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold_net_income_including_health_benefits\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_slcsp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mslcsp\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m----> 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_new_york_slcsp\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmedian\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 9\u001b[0m reform_new_york_per_capita_chip \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mper_capita_chip\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 10\u001b[0m reform_new_york_aca_ptc \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124maca_ptc\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n", - "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ "household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", "baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", @@ -849,7 +622,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -861,7 +634,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 31, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -28567,7 +28340,7 @@ "\n", "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_texas, \n", - " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost, \n", + " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost,\n", " mode='lines', \n", " name='Medicaid (Reform)', \n", " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')\n", @@ -28614,7 +28387,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 27, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -32721,56 +32494,7 @@ }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" - } - ], - "source": [ - "#House hold net income graphs\n", - "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", - "\n", - "# ---------- NY fam ----------\n", - "fig_ny = go.Figure()\n", - "\n", - "# Baseline (solid)\n", - "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_new_york,\n", - " y=baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n", - " mode='lines',\n", - " name='Health Net Income (Baseline)',\n", - " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2) # use your palette constant\n", - "))\n", - "\n", - "# Reform (dotted)\n", - "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_new_york,\n", - " y=reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n", - " mode='lines',\n", - " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n", - " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", - "))\n", - "\n", - "# Layout\n", - "fig_ny.update_layout(\n", - " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n", - " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", - " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n", - " legend_title='Scenario',\n", - " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", - " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n", - " height=600,\n", - " width=1000\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", - "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n", - "\n", - "fig_ny.show()\n" - ] - }, - { - "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 32, - "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ + }, { "data": { "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { @@ -32784,7 +32508,7 @@ "width": 2 }, "mode": "lines", - "name": "Health Net Income (Baseline)", + "name": "Δ Net 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"gridcolor": "#EBF0F8", + "linecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "ticks": "", + "title": { + "standoff": 15 + }, + "zerolinecolor": "#EBF0F8", + "zerolinewidth": 2 + } + } + }, + "title": { + "text": "New York Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits" + }, + "width": 800, + "xaxis": { + "range": [ + 0, + 400000 + ], + "tickformat": "$,.0f", + "title": { + "text": "Household Income" + } + }, + "yaxis": { + "tickformat": "$,.0f", + "title": { + "text": "Δ Net Income" + }, + "zeroline": true, + "zerolinewidth": 1 + } + } + } + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "#House hold net income graphs\n", + "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", + "\n", + "# ---------- NY fam ----------\n", + "fig_ny = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "# Baseline (solid)\n", + "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Health Net Income (Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2) # use your palette constant\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Reform (dotted)\n", + "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "# Layout\n", + "fig_ny.update_layout(\n", + " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n", + " legend_title='Scenario',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", + "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n", + "\n", + "fig_ny.show()\n", + "\n", + "# --- Δ Health-adjusted net income (Reform – Baseline) ---\n", + "delta_ny = (\n", + " reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits\n", + " - baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_ny = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_new_york,\n", + " y=delta_ny,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Δ Net Income (Reform – Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_ny.update_layout(\n", + " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Δ Net Income',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', zeroline=True, zerolinewidth=1),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000,\n", + " legend=dict(orientation='h')\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_ny = format_fig(fig_delta_ny) # if you use the helper elsewhere\n", + 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"layout": { + "font": { + "color": "black", + "family": "Roboto Serif" + }, + "height": 600, + "images": [ + { + "sizex": 0.15, + "sizey": 0.15, + "source": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png", + "x": 1.1, + "xanchor": "right", + "xref": "paper", + "y": -0.15, + "yanchor": "bottom", + "yref": "paper" + } + ], + "legend": { + "orientation": "h" }, "modebar": { "bgcolor": "rgba(0,0,0,0)", @@ -36851,7 +41634,7 @@ } }, "title": { - "text": "Texas Household (Married Couple) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income" + "text": "Texas Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits" }, "width": 800, "xaxis": { @@ -36867,8 +41650,10 @@ "yaxis": { "tickformat": "$,.0f", "title": { - "text": "Health-Adjusted Net Income" - } + "text": "Δ Net Income" + }, + "zeroline": true, + "zerolinewidth": 1 } } } @@ -36914,12 +41699,42 @@ "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n", "fig_tx = format_fig(fig_tx)\n", "\n", - "fig_tx.show()\n" + "fig_tx.show()\n", + "# --- Δ Health-adjusted net income (Reform – Baseline), Texas ---\n", + "delta_tx = (\n", + " reform_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits\n", + " - baseline_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_tx = go.Figure()\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_tx.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=household_income_texas,\n", + " y=delta_tx,\n", + " mode='lines',\n", + " name='Δ Net Income (Reform – Baseline)',\n", + " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n", + "))\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_tx.update_layout(\n", + " title='Texas Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits',\n", + " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n", + " yaxis_title='Δ Net Income',\n", + " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n", + " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', zeroline=True, zerolinewidth=1),\n", + " height=600,\n", + " width=1000,\n", + " legend=dict(orientation='h')\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "fig_delta_tx = format_fig(fig_delta_tx) # if you’re using that helper\n", + "fig_delta_tx.show()\n", + "\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -41090,7 +45905,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 24, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { From 3ac06dc029f2cf9ef9c0af5d93e8dcc4a5681125 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2025 14:08:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 15/15] notebooks --- .gitignore | 1 + us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 1801 +- us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb | 4242 +++++ us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb | 121 +- us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb | 19327 +++++++--------------- us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py | 210 + us/medicaid/claude_help.md | 48 + us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb | 126 + us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb | 4 +- 9 files changed, 12747 insertions(+), 13133 deletions(-) create mode 100644 us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb create mode 100644 us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py create mode 100644 us/medicaid/claude_help.md create mode 100644 us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 82f9275..81faeef 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -160,3 +160,4 @@ cython_debug/ # and can be added to the global gitignore or merged into this file. For a more nuclear # option (not recommended) you can uncomment the following to ignore the entire idea folder. #.idea/ +us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5 diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb index 68c5b94..55f6ec7 100644 --- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb +++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "34.4898908313967" + "31.542351631973784" ] }, "execution_count": 4, @@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "228.37424343962823" + "225.39480517300126" ] }, "execution_count": 5, @@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "191,573,928 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "205,150,194 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "24,630,096 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "22,890,509 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "20,074,006 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + "16,961,632 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" ] } ], @@ -278,7 +278,7 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 600\n", + " 459\n", " 4428\n", " MA\n", " 1.0\n", @@ -293,10 +293,10 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", - "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", + "459 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", "\n", " aca_baseline aca_reform \n", - "600 0.0 0.0 " + "459 0.0 0.0 " ] }, "execution_count": 10, @@ -364,101 +364,101 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 15170\n", + " 3930\n", + " 22572\n", + " WI\n", + " 14746.737305\n", + " 20787.404785\n", + " 3.065464e+08\n", + " \n", + " \n", + " 9715\n", " 63406\n", " TX\n", - " 96633.976562\n", - " 20097.220703\n", - " 1.942074e+09\n", + " 313614.062500\n", + " 20464.279297\n", + " 6.417886e+09\n", " \n", " \n", - " 11278\n", - " 46357\n", + " 7593\n", + " 47863\n", " FL\n", - " 63879.199219\n", - " 15559.541992\n", - " 9.939311e+08\n", + " 13494.670898\n", + " 20171.796875\n", + " 2.722118e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 30957\n", - " 132558\n", - " GA\n", - " 34982.687500\n", - " 14077.200195\n", - " 4.924583e+08\n", + " 12472\n", + " 83838\n", + " CA\n", + " 42713.929688\n", + " 18523.296875\n", + " 7.912028e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 14628\n", - " 61712\n", - " TX\n", - " 15532.655273\n", - " 14010.416992\n", - " 2.176190e+08\n", + " 11078\n", + " 74935\n", + " UT\n", + " 19624.578125\n", + " 14949.250000\n", + " 2.933727e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 11156\n", + " 7287\n", " 46034\n", " FL\n", - " 30328.830078\n", - " 9943.345703\n", - " 3.015700e+08\n", + " 191966.390625\n", + " 13774.429688\n", + " 2.644228e+09\n", " \n", " \n", - " 31402\n", - " 133962\n", - " FL\n", - " 21518.343750\n", - " 9887.317383\n", - " 2.127587e+08\n", - " \n", - " \n", - " 4013\n", - " 16074\n", - " OH\n", - " 11105.104492\n", - " 6990.998047\n", - " 7.763576e+07\n", + " 1718\n", + " 11792\n", + " NJ\n", + " 22938.029297\n", + " 9646.639648\n", + " 2.212749e+08\n", " \n", " \n", - " 31632\n", - " 134802\n", - " FL\n", - " 23929.857422\n", - " 5788.573242\n", - " 1.385197e+08\n", + " 5058\n", + " 29932\n", + " KS\n", + " 10356.357422\n", + " 9572.796875\n", + " 9.913931e+07\n", " \n", " \n", - " 9387\n", - " 39878\n", - " NC\n", - " 23245.363281\n", - " 5382.159180\n", - " 1.251102e+08\n", + " 3335\n", + " 19714\n", + " IL\n", + " 12393.625000\n", + " 7891.378906\n", + " 9.780279e+07\n", " \n", " \n", - " 9643\n", - " 40712\n", - " SC\n", - " 13224.298828\n", - " 4779.596680\n", - " 6.320681e+07\n", + " 4053\n", + " 23036\n", + " WI\n", + " 20458.789062\n", + " 7672.568359\n", + " 1.569715e+08\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", "" ], "text/plain": [ - " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "15170 63406 TX 96633.976562 20097.220703 1.942074e+09\n", - "11278 46357 FL 63879.199219 15559.541992 9.939311e+08\n", - "30957 132558 GA 34982.687500 14077.200195 4.924583e+08\n", - "14628 61712 TX 15532.655273 14010.416992 2.176190e+08\n", - "11156 46034 FL 30328.830078 9943.345703 3.015700e+08\n", - "31402 133962 FL 21518.343750 9887.317383 2.127587e+08\n", - "4013 16074 OH 11105.104492 6990.998047 7.763576e+07\n", - "31632 134802 FL 23929.857422 5788.573242 1.385197e+08\n", - "9387 39878 NC 23245.363281 5382.159180 1.251102e+08\n", - "9643 40712 SC 13224.298828 4779.596680 6.320681e+07" + " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", + "3930 22572 WI 14746.737305 20787.404785 3.065464e+08\n", + "9715 63406 TX 313614.062500 20464.279297 6.417886e+09\n", + "7593 47863 FL 13494.670898 20171.796875 2.722118e+08\n", + "12472 83838 CA 42713.929688 18523.296875 7.912028e+08\n", + "11078 74935 UT 19624.578125 14949.250000 2.933727e+08\n", + "7287 46034 FL 191966.390625 13774.429688 2.644228e+09\n", + "1718 11792 NJ 22938.029297 9646.639648 2.212749e+08\n", + "5058 29932 KS 10356.357422 9572.796875 9.913931e+07\n", + "3335 19714 IL 12393.625000 7891.378906 9.780279e+07\n", + "4053 23036 WI 20458.789062 7672.568359 1.569715e+08" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -502,82 +502,82 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 9\n", - " 78\n", + " 0\n", + " 12\n", " ME\n", - " 20615.609375\n", + " 28690.535156\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 25\n", - " 194\n", + " 1\n", + " 21\n", " ME\n", - " 14024.491211\n", + " 10654.151367\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 26\n", - " 199\n", + " 8\n", + " 73\n", " ME\n", - " 17028.466797\n", + " 10017.615234\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 38\n", - " 326\n", + " 10\n", + " 79\n", " ME\n", - " 14531.310547\n", + " 21640.277344\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 44\n", - " 356\n", + " 20\n", + " 134\n", " ME\n", - " 15670.582031\n", + " 21905.371094\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 47\n", - " 380\n", + " 24\n", + " 194\n", " ME\n", - " 20000.724609\n", + " 14491.523438\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 48\n", - " 407\n", + " 26\n", + " 206\n", " ME\n", - " 10724.878906\n", + " 23982.746094\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 51\n", - " 425\n", + " 28\n", + " 261\n", " ME\n", - " 15117.451172\n", + " 14972.551758\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 53\n", - " 437\n", + " 41\n", + " 356\n", " ME\n", - " 11405.429688\n", + " 13415.000000\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", " \n", - " 58\n", - " 475\n", + " 45\n", + " 407\n", " ME\n", - " 12578.248047\n", + " 10767.994141\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " \n", @@ -587,16 +587,16 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n", - "9 78 ME 20615.609375 0.0 0.0\n", - "25 194 ME 14024.491211 0.0 0.0\n", - "26 199 ME 17028.466797 0.0 0.0\n", - "38 326 ME 14531.310547 0.0 0.0\n", - "44 356 ME 15670.582031 0.0 0.0\n", - "47 380 ME 20000.724609 0.0 0.0\n", - "48 407 ME 10724.878906 0.0 0.0\n", - "51 425 ME 15117.451172 0.0 0.0\n", - "53 437 ME 11405.429688 0.0 0.0\n", - "58 475 ME 12578.248047 0.0 0.0" + "0 12 ME 28690.535156 0.0 0.0\n", + "1 21 ME 10654.151367 0.0 0.0\n", + "8 73 ME 10017.615234 0.0 0.0\n", + "10 79 ME 21640.277344 0.0 0.0\n", + "20 134 ME 21905.371094 0.0 0.0\n", + "24 194 ME 14491.523438 0.0 0.0\n", + "26 206 ME 23982.746094 0.0 0.0\n", + "28 261 ME 14972.551758 0.0 0.0\n", + "41 356 ME 13415.000000 0.0 0.0\n", + "45 407 ME 10767.994141 0.0 0.0" ] }, "metadata": {}, @@ -678,7 +678,7 @@ " \n", " \n", " \n", - " 600\n", + " 459\n", " 4428\n", " MA\n", " 1.0\n", @@ -686,7 +686,7 @@ " 52859.65625\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", - " 23814.501953\n", + " 4397.432129\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", @@ -694,10 +694,10 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", - "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", + "459 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", "\n", - " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", - "600 0.0 0.0 23814.501953 " + " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", + "459 0.0 0.0 4397.432129 " ] }, "execution_count": 12, @@ -718,7 +718,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,239.40\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,730.13\n" ] } ], @@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,784.16\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $2,239.05\n" ] } ], @@ -785,7 +785,7 @@ "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $4,797.60\n" + "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $5,302.77\n" ] } ], @@ -821,7 +821,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "29.856163170330728" + "32.76222811087988" ] }, "execution_count": 16, @@ -880,16 +880,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$47", - "$126", - "$147", + "$45", + "$129", + "$173", + "$94", + "$173", + "$154", "$165", - "$209", - "$252", - "$244", - "$281", - "$390", - "$125" + "$283", + "$730", + "$267" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -906,16 +906,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 47.242431640625, - 125.9588623046875, - 146.8796844482422, - 164.8943634033203, - 209.1598663330078, - 251.72093200683594, - 243.78147888183594, - 280.51556396484375, - 389.531982421875, - 124.53172302246094 + 45.11362075805664, + 128.75291442871094, + 173.0161895751953, + 93.90471649169922, + 172.68763732910156, + 153.82765197753906, + 165.1871337890625, + 282.6961975097656, + 729.6290283203125, + 266.8133850097656 ] } ], @@ -1794,16 +1794,16 @@ ] }, "text": [ - "$47", - "$126", - "$147", + "$45", + "$129", + "$173", + "$94", + "$173", + "$154", "$165", - "$209", - "$252", - "$244", - "$281", - "$390", - "$125" + "$283", + "$730", + "$267" ], "textposition": "inside", "type": "bar", @@ -1820,16 +1820,16 @@ 10 ], "y": [ - 47.242431640625, - 125.9588623046875, - 146.8796844482422, - 164.8943634033203, - 209.1598663330078, - 251.72093200683594, - 243.78147888183594, - 280.51556396484375, - 389.531982421875, - 124.53172302246094 + 45.11362075805664, + 128.75291442871094, + 173.0161895751953, + 93.90471649169922, + 172.68763732910156, + 153.82765197753906, + 165.1871337890625, + 282.6961975097656, + 729.6290283203125, + 266.8133850097656 ] } ], @@ -2782,6 +2782,1481 @@ "fig.show()\n", "fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1) # show 1-10 instead of only the evens\n" ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "id": "1jhns1uinylj", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Number of households gaining PTC under reform: 761\n", + "Weighted count: 1,923,488\n", + "\n", + "Average reform PTC for these households: $5,751.24\n", + "Weighted average reform PTC: $5,302.77\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's analyze the households affected by the ACA reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", + "# First, let's look at households that gain PTC under reform but had none in baseline\n", + "gained_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Number of households gaining PTC under reform: {len(gained_ptc)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage reform PTC for these households: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted average reform PTC: ${(gained_ptc['aca_reform'] * gained_ptc['weight']).sum() / gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.2f}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 19, + "id": "kezjkjwshvl", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ModuleNotFoundError", + "evalue": "No module named 'matplotlib'", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[19], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look at income distribution of households gaining PTC\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mimport\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;21;01mmatplotlib\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;21;01m.\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;21;01mpyplot\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;21;01mplt\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m gained_ptc_with_income \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m gained_ptc\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcopy()\n", + "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m: No module named 'matplotlib'" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's look at income distribution of households gaining PTC\n", + "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", + "\n", + "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n", + "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n", + "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n", + "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n", + "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n", + " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Show income distribution of households gaining PTC\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n", + "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "# Show top 10 households by PTC gain amount\n", + "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n", + "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n", + "top_gainers" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 20, + "id": "qzjyh3eo44", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Income percentiles across all households:\n", + " 25th percentile: $8,776\n", + " 50th percentile: $59,168\n", + " 75th percentile: $121,807\n", + " 90th percentile: $205,693\n", + " 95th percentile: $287,212\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n", + "============================================================\n", + "count 761.000000\n", + "mean 113532.674681\n", + "std 67906.364616\n", + "min 0.000000\n", + "25% 68947.382812\n", + "50% 103907.218750\n", + "75% 150131.617188\n", + "max 467888.655273\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n", + "============================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomeaca_reformMarriedNum_Dependentsweight
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_reform Married \\\n", + "10241 69304 WY 172368.441406 27582.343750 1.0 \n", + "4600 25635 MO 37921.058594 27411.421875 1.0 \n", + "17827 136329 FL 96147.054688 27191.490234 1.0 \n", + "9197 59697 OK 68947.382812 26790.708984 1.0 \n", + "4610 25669 MO 0.000000 26257.669922 1.0 \n", + "4565 25484 MO 120657.902344 25160.201172 1.0 \n", + "20880 170145 CA 97803.962158 25064.998047 1.0 \n", + "21249 173580 CA 107563.710938 24998.007812 1.0 \n", + "21284 173817 CA 120305.722656 24842.128906 1.0 \n", + "62 548 ME 0.000000 24623.031250 1.0 \n", + "\n", + " Num_Dependents weight \n", + "10241 3.0 6615.325195 \n", + "4600 0.0 4003.946045 \n", + "17827 1.0 0.052937 \n", + "9197 0.0 1484.846436 \n", + "4610 0.0 1353.809692 \n", + "4565 0.0 4692.614746 \n", + "20880 0.0 1.485237 \n", + "21249 0.0 0.000211 \n", + "21284 0.0 0.003597 \n", + "62 0.0 1530.439819 " + ] + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n", + "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n", + "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n", + "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n", + "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n", + "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n", + " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n", + "display(top_gainers)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 20, + "id": "6ngx1hex7d7", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Income percentiles across all households:\n", + " 25th percentile: $8,776\n", + " 50th percentile: $59,168\n", + " 75th percentile: $121,807\n", + " 90th percentile: $205,693\n", + " 95th percentile: $287,212\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n", + "============================================================\n", + "count 761.000000\n", + "mean 113532.674681\n", + "std 67906.364616\n", + "min 0.000000\n", + "25% 68947.382812\n", + "50% 103907.218750\n", + "75% 150131.617188\n", + "max 467888.655273\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n", + "============================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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17827136329FL96147.05468827191.4902341.01.00.052937
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_reform Married \\\n", + "10241 69304 WY 172368.441406 27582.343750 1.0 \n", + "4600 25635 MO 37921.058594 27411.421875 1.0 \n", + "17827 136329 FL 96147.054688 27191.490234 1.0 \n", + "9197 59697 OK 68947.382812 26790.708984 1.0 \n", + "4610 25669 MO 0.000000 26257.669922 1.0 \n", + "4565 25484 MO 120657.902344 25160.201172 1.0 \n", + "20880 170145 CA 97803.962158 25064.998047 1.0 \n", + "21249 173580 CA 107563.710938 24998.007812 1.0 \n", + "21284 173817 CA 120305.722656 24842.128906 1.0 \n", + "62 548 ME 0.000000 24623.031250 1.0 \n", + "\n", + " Num_Dependents weight \n", + "10241 3.0 6615.325195 \n", + "4600 0.0 4003.946045 \n", + "17827 1.0 0.052937 \n", + "9197 0.0 1484.846436 \n", + "4610 0.0 1353.809692 \n", + "4565 0.0 4692.614746 \n", + "20880 0.0 1.485237 \n", + "21249 0.0 0.000211 \n", + "21284 0.0 0.003597 \n", + "62 0.0 1530.439819 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 20, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n", + "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n", + "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n", + "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n", + "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n", + "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n", + " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n", + "top_gainers" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 21, + "id": "fbg7gtwvt09", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\n", + "Number of households: 0\n", + "Weighted count: 0\n", + "\n", + "Average baseline PTC: $nan\n", + "Average reform PTC: $nan\n", + "Average loss: $nan\n", + "\n", + "Income distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\n", + "count 0.0\n", + "mean NaN\n", + "std NaN\n", + "min NaN\n", + "25% NaN\n", + "50% NaN\n", + "75% NaN\n", + "max NaN\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC loss:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomeaca_baselineaca_reformnet_changeweight
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + "Empty DataFrame\n", + "Columns: [household_id, State, Employment_Income, aca_baseline, aca_reform, net_change, weight]\n", + "Index: []" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 21, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Now let's look at households losing PTC or seeing reduced PTC\n", + "lost_or_reduced = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['net_change'] < 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\")\n", + "print(f\"Number of households: {len(lost_or_reduced)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {lost_or_reduced['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average loss: ${lost_or_reduced['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Income distribution\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\")\n", + "print(lost_or_reduced['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "# Top losers\n", + "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC loss:\")\n", + "top_losers = lost_or_reduced.nsmallest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n", + "top_losers" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 22, + "id": "y1a0d1tqy9n", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\n", + "Number of households: 2437\n", + "Weighted count: 10,076,767\n", + "\n", + "Average baseline PTC: $7,909.13\n", + "Average reform PTC: $9,880.77\n", + "Average change: $1,971.64\n", + "\n", + "Distribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\n", + "count 2437.000000\n", + "mean 1971.639511\n", + "std 1562.269100\n", + "min 433.568359\n", + "25% 1304.000244\n", + "50% 1613.736328\n", + "75% 2232.999512\n", + "max 29610.569824\n", + "Name: net_change, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "Top 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \\\n", + "13395 95388 CT 230258.468750 2271.705078 31882.274902 \n", + "20794 169452 CA 131771.823242 6317.419434 28958.584473 \n", + "12985 88926 HI 119508.789062 3365.458740 25774.730469 \n", + "3930 22572 WI 91929.835449 5390.636230 26178.041016 \n", + "9715 63406 TX 56307.025391 3461.937988 23926.217285 \n", + "19463 153886 TX 205251.378052 2576.328125 22568.280273 \n", + "20786 169392 CA 254882.910156 5029.621582 23572.651611 \n", + "12778 85992 CA 264716.572266 2762.978271 17948.256836 \n", + "20062 162791 AZ 39974.335938 12875.888672 26409.888672 \n", + "17712 135165 FL 196369.458984 15325.860840 28293.105469 \n", + "\n", + " net_change weight \n", + "13395 29610.569824 0.000197 \n", + "20794 22641.165039 0.003905 \n", + "12985 22409.271729 1788.657227 \n", + "3930 20787.404785 14746.737305 \n", + "9715 20464.279297 313614.062500 \n", + "19463 19991.952148 0.000294 \n", + "20786 18543.030029 0.001491 \n", + "12778 15185.278564 2075.729736 \n", + "20062 13534.000000 0.000893 \n", + "17712 12967.244629 0.056075 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Interesting - no households lose PTC! Let's look at those who keep their PTC but see changes\n", + "kept_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\")\n", + "print(f\"Number of households: {len(kept_ptc)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {kept_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average change: ${kept_ptc['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Show distribution of changes\n", + "print(\"\\nDistribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\")\n", + "print(kept_ptc['net_change'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "# Households with biggest increases among those who already had PTC\n", + "print(\"\\nTop 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\")\n", + "top_increases = kept_ptc.nlargest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n", + "top_increases" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "id": "7pukgyq18zt", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "======================================================================\n", + "ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "\n", + "Households between 350-450% FPL: 2108\n", + "Weighted count: 12,872,038\n", + "\n", + "Below 400% FPL (350-400%): 1094 households\n", + " Average baseline PTC: $1,367.79\n", + " Average reform PTC: $1,867.28\n", + " Average change: $499.49\n", + "\n", + "Above 400% FPL (400-450%): 1014 households\n", + " Average baseline PTC: $660.53\n", + " Average reform PTC: $1,449.85\n", + " Average change: $789.33\n", + "\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\n", + "======================================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomefpl_ratioaca_baselineaca_reformnet_changeweight
1191ME85344.212891403.9006760.0000000.0000.0000001078.256592
57495ME105351.593262395.3155470.0000000.0000.0000009808.822266
2472971VT85035.097656402.4377550.0000000.0000.000000973.623474
3713945MA106868.429688401.0072410.0000000.0000.00000053990.785156
4974662MA62052.640625398.5397600.0000000.0000.000000467.895142
6005462RI106868.433594401.0072560.0000000.0000.0000003926.910889
6866168CT62052.640625398.5397600.0000000.0000.000000106855.679688
8466872NY85035.101562402.4377740.0000000.0000.000000241672.859375
11658843NY85264.925781403.52544117897.58593821417.3753519.7890621036.865601
144610425NJ129850.888672403.2636290.0000000.0000.000000227.340012
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n", + "11 91 ME 85344.212891 403.900676 0.000000 \n", + "57 495 ME 105351.593262 395.315547 0.000000 \n", + "247 2971 VT 85035.097656 402.437755 0.000000 \n", + "371 3945 MA 106868.429688 401.007241 0.000000 \n", + "497 4662 MA 62052.640625 398.539760 0.000000 \n", + "600 5462 RI 106868.433594 401.007256 0.000000 \n", + "686 6168 CT 62052.640625 398.539760 0.000000 \n", + "846 6872 NY 85035.101562 402.437774 0.000000 \n", + "1165 8843 NY 85264.925781 403.525441 17897.585938 \n", + "1446 10425 NJ 129850.888672 403.263629 0.000000 \n", + "\n", + " aca_reform net_change weight \n", + "11 0.000 0.000000 1078.256592 \n", + "57 0.000 0.000000 9808.822266 \n", + "247 0.000 0.000000 973.623474 \n", + "371 0.000 0.000000 53990.785156 \n", + "497 0.000 0.000000 467.895142 \n", + "600 0.000 0.000000 3926.910889 \n", + "686 0.000 0.000000 106855.679688 \n", + "846 0.000 0.000000 241672.859375 \n", + "1165 21417.375 3519.789062 1036.865601 \n", + "1446 0.000 0.000000 227.340012 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's calculate approximate FPL levels for households to understand where they fall\n", + "# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations based on current trends)\n", + "fpl_2026 = {\n", + " 1: 15570, # Single person\n", + " 2: 21130, # Couple\n", + " 3: 26650, # Family of 3\n", + " 4: 32200, # Family of 4\n", + " 5: 37750, # Family of 5\n", + " 6: 43300, # Family of 6\n", + " 7: 48850, # Family of 7\n", + " 8: 54400, # Family of 8\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate household size and FPL ratio\n", + "df_outputs['household_size'] = 2 + df_outputs['Num_Dependents'] # Assuming married couples or singles with deps\n", + "df_outputs['household_size'] = df_outputs.apply(\n", + " lambda row: (1 + row['Married'] + row['Num_Dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['Married']) else 1,\n", + " axis=1\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Map FPL based on household size\n", + "df_outputs['fpl_threshold'] = df_outputs['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400))\n", + "df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] = (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] / df_outputs['fpl_threshold']) * 100\n", + "\n", + "# Now let's analyze the cliff effect around 400% FPL\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "\n", + "# Households just below and above 400% FPL\n", + "near_cliff = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)]\n", + "print(f\"\\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL: {len(near_cliff)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Split by those above and below 400% FPL\n", + "below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400]\n", + "above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%): {len(below_400)} households\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%): {len(above_400)} households\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Show some examples\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "cliff_examples = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 395) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 405)]\n", + "cliff_examples_display = cliff_examples[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n", + " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']].head(10)\n", + "cliff_examples_display" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 24, + "id": "hmhah1unlwn", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[24], line 3\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Calculate income deciles\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 3\u001b[0m df_outputs[\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m] \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mpd\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mqcut\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mdf_outputs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mEmployment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m10\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mrange\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m11\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mdrop\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Group by decile and show the effect\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m decile_analysis \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m df_outputs\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mgroupby(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39magg({\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mEmployment_Income\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: [\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmin\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmax\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m],\n\u001b[1;32m 8\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mfpl_ratio\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 12\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mweight\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124msum\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m })\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mround(\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m)\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:340\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mqcut\u001b[0;34m(x, q, labels, retbins, precision, duplicates)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 336\u001b[0m quantiles \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mlinspace(\u001b[38;5;241m0\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m, q \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m) \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m is_integer(q) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m q\n\u001b[1;32m 338\u001b[0m bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m x_idx\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mto_series()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdropna()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mquantile(quantiles)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 340\u001b[0m fac, bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 341\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mx_idx\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 342\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mIndex\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbins\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 343\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 344\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 345\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43minclude_lowest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mTrue\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 346\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 347\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 349\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m _postprocess_for_cut(fac, bins, retbins, original)\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:493\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[0;34m(x_idx, bins, right, labels, precision, include_lowest, duplicates, ordered)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 491\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 492\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;241m!=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(bins) \u001b[38;5;241m-\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 493\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\n\u001b[1;32m 494\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mBin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 495\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 497\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mgetattr\u001b[39m(labels, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdtype\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m), CategoricalDtype):\n\u001b[1;32m 498\u001b[0m labels \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m Categorical(\n\u001b[1;32m 499\u001b[0m labels,\n\u001b[1;32m 500\u001b[0m categories\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mlabels \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mset\u001b[39m(labels)) \u001b[38;5;241m==\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m,\n\u001b[1;32m 501\u001b[0m ordered\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mordered,\n\u001b[1;32m 502\u001b[0m )\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\n", + "# Calculate income deciles\n", + "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, labels=range(1, 11), duplicates='drop')\n", + "\n", + "# Group by decile and show the effect\n", + "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('income_decile').agg({\n", + " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n", + " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n", + " 'net_change': 'mean',\n", + " 'weight': 'sum'\n", + "}).round(2)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n", + "decile_analysis" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 25, + "id": "w09m1i1mc5q", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "======================================================================\n", + "PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "\n", + "Income ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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minmaxmeanmeanmeanmeanmeansum
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n", + " min max mean mean mean \n", + "decile_num \n", + "1 0.00 22082.70 3081.23 16.50 481.01 \n", + "2 22096.56 40219.30 31811.30 167.52 1638.77 \n", + "3 40220.45 59168.34 50102.24 254.53 1575.92 \n", + "4 59179.83 80438.61 69904.57 343.95 1437.25 \n", + "5 80438.61 106574.53 93253.97 434.80 1303.70 \n", + "6 106597.34 142491.25 122908.07 554.42 816.63 \n", + "7 142491.25 205693.01 169652.75 727.25 489.02 \n", + "8 205693.02 3305428.97 382158.51 1548.38 210.36 \n", + "\n", + " aca_reform net_change weight \n", + " mean mean sum \n", + "decile_num \n", + "1 618.01 136.99 56060974.39 \n", + "2 1989.05 350.27 18267145.22 \n", + "3 2062.44 486.52 13547056.92 \n", + "4 2029.91 592.66 12499143.93 \n", + "5 2060.30 756.60 11057517.34 \n", + "6 1518.36 701.72 13853349.38 \n", + "7 1177.16 688.14 10689611.79 \n", + "8 482.04 271.67 11524346.53 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Fix the decile calculation\n", + "# Calculate income deciles without explicit labels to avoid the error\n", + "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, duplicates='drop')\n", + "\n", + "# Get unique deciles and sort them\n", + "deciles = sorted(df_outputs['income_decile'].unique())\n", + "\n", + "# Create a mapping to simpler labels\n", + "decile_map = {d: i+1 for i, d in enumerate(deciles)}\n", + "df_outputs['decile_num'] = df_outputs['income_decile'].map(decile_map)\n", + "\n", + "# Group by decile and show the effect\n", + "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('decile_num').agg({\n", + " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n", + " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n", + " 'net_change': 'mean',\n", + " 'weight': 'sum'\n", + "}).round(2)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n", + "decile_analysis" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "id": "fbfun838g2", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "# Let's look at where in the data the 9th decile falls (the one from the chart)\n", + "# Since we only have 8 groups due to duplicates being dropped, let's recalculate properly\n", + "\n", + "# First, let's understand the actual income distribution better\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "\n", + "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n", + "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n", + "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n", + "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n", + " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# The 9th decile should be roughly between 80th and 90th percentile\n", + "ninth_decile = df_outputs[(df_outputs['Employment_Income'] >= income_pcts[7]) & \n", + " (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] < income_pcts[8])]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\n9th Decile (80-90th percentile):\")\n", + "print(f\" Income range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Number of households: {len(ninth_decile)}\")\n", + "print(f\" Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Now let's see WHO specifically gains in the 9th decile\n", + "ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100] # Gains more than $100\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nHouseholds in 9th decile with gains > $100:\")\n", + "print(f\" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers)}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['Employment_Income'].mean():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n", + "print(f\" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Look at specific examples\n", + "print(\"\\nExample households in 9th decile with large gains:\")\n", + "examples = ninth_decile_gainers.nlargest(5, 'net_change')[\n", + " ['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n", + " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents']\n", + "]\n", + "examples" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "id": "inz803s5rlm", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Checking available variables:\n", + "df_outputs exists: True\n", + "df_outputs shape: (21607, 14)\n", + "Columns: ['household_id', 'State', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'weight', 'net_change', 'household_size', 'fpl_threshold', 'fpl_ratio', 'income_decile', 'decile_num']\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Check if the dataframe exists and has the needed columns\n", + "print(\"Checking available variables:\")\n", + "print(f\"df_outputs exists: {'df_outputs' in locals()}\")\n", + "if 'df_outputs' in locals():\n", + " print(f\"df_outputs shape: {df_outputs.shape}\")\n", + " print(f\"Columns: {list(df_outputs.columns)}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "id": "qhtylcg4wz", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "# Understanding the 9th decile concentration\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", + "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n", + "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n", + "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n", + "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n", + " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")" + ] } ], "metadata": { diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5983249 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,4242 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", + "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "\n", + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 2, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n", + " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n", + " },\n", + " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n", + " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n", + " }\n", + "}, country_id=\"us\")\n", + "\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 3, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", period=2024)\n", + "\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "37.008340397541666" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"tax_unit\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_aca_eligible/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "227.46342831824853" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n", + "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 6, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "197,799,923 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2025\n", + "sim = baseline\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 7, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "28,427,905 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2026\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up_r = reformed.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc_r = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt_r = reformed.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up_r == 1) & (aca_ptc_r > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt_r).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "20,115,724 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "period = 2026\n", + "sim = baseline\n", + "\n", + "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n", + "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n", + "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n", + " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n", + "\n", + "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n", + "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n", + "\n", + "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n", + "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n", + "\n", + "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n", + " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 9, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "year = 2026\n", + "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n", + "aca_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateMarriedNum_DependentsEmployment_Incomeaca_baselineaca_reform
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", + "\n", + " aca_baseline aca_reform \n", + "600 0.0 0.0 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 10, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n", + "data = {\n", + " \"household_id\": household_id,\n", + " \"State\": state,\n", + " \"Married\": married,\n", + " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n", + " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n", + " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n", + " \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n", + "\n", + " }\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n", + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 11, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n", + "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n", + "\n", + " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n", + "600 0.0 0.0 36551.855469 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 12, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 13, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,666.88\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# 0. Make sure net_change exists\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# 1. Flag households with any change\n", + "mask = df_outputs[\"net_change\"] != 0 # True for ↑ or ↓\n", + "\n", + "# 2. Weighted mean among those households\n", + "avg_net_change = (\n", + " (df_outputs.loc[mask, \"net_change\"] * df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: \"\n", + " f\"${avg_net_change:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 14, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,687.69\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Keep only households with a PTC in *both* scenarios\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "mask_both_ptc = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] > 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n", + "df_dual_ptc = df_outputs[mask_both_ptc]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "avg_net_change_dual_hh = (\n", + " (df_dual_ptc[\"net_change\"] * df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both \"\n", + " f\"baseline and reform: ${avg_net_change_dual_hh:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 15, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $5,972.71\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist (already done above)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Keep only households that *gain* a PTC (reform > 0, baseline == 0)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "mask_reform_only = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] == 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n", + "df_reform_only = df_outputs[mask_reform_only]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "avg_net_change_reform_only_hh = (\n", + " (df_reform_only[\"net_change\"] * df_reform_only[\"weight\"]).sum()\n", + " / df_reform_only[\"weight\"].sum()\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC \"\n", + " f\"under the reform: ${avg_net_change_reform_only_hh:,.2f}\")\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "40.889928786781944" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 16, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Pull household-level results\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# ACA PTC (baseline and reform)\n", + "ptc_base = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "ptc_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "# Household weights (same for both sims)\n", + "hh_wt = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n", + "\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted sum of the change\n", + "# -------------------------------\n", + "weighted_total_change = ptc_reform - ptc_base\n", + "\n", + "# Optional: average change per household\n", + "weighted_total_change.sum()/1e9" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 17, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": { + "config": { + "plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly" + }, + "data": [ + { + "marker": { + "color": [ + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496", + "#2C6496" + ] + }, + "text": [ + "$86", + "$156", + "$165", + "$177", + "$226", + "$247", + "$401", + "$316", + "$419", + "$525" + ], + "textposition": "inside", + "type": "bar", + "x": [ + 1, + 2, + 3, + 4, + 5, + 6, + 7, + 8, + 9, + 10 + ], + "y": [ + 85.58747863769531, + 155.56265258789062, + 165.2862548828125, + 177.06210327148438, + 226.35496520996094, + 247.4505615234375, + 400.6145324707031, + 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+ "yaxis": { + "title": { + "text": "Average change in household net income ($)" + } + } + } + } + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import numpy as np\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# Brand hex codes (one-to-one with style.colors)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "COLOR_BLUE = \"#2C6496\" # style.colors.BLUE / BLUE_PRIMARY\n", + "COLOR_BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\" # style.colors.BLUE_LIGHT / BLUE_95\n", + "COLOR_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\" # style.colors.LIGHT_GRAY\n", + "COLOR_MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\" # style.colors.MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY\n", + "COLOR_DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\" # style.colors.DARK_GRAY\n", + "\n", + "# ––– choose colours for positive vs. negative average bars –––\n", + "POS_COLOR = COLOR_BLUE\n", + "NEG_COLOR = COLOR_DARK_GRAY\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 1. Pull baseline / reform net income + weights\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "net_base = baseline.calculate(\n", + " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "net_reform = reformed.calculate(\n", + " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "weights = baseline.calculate(\n", + " \"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"net_base\": net_base,\n", + " \"delta\": net_reform - net_base,\n", + " \"weight\": weights,\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 2. Weighted decile edges (baseline ranking)\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "def wquantile(values, qs, w):\n", + " srt = np.argsort(values)\n", + " values, w = values[srt], w[srt]\n", + " cum_w = np.cumsum(w) / np.sum(w)\n", + " return np.interp(qs, cum_w, values)\n", + "\n", + "edges = wquantile(df[\"net_base\"].values,\n", + " np.linspace(0, 1, 11), df[\"weight\"].values)\n", + "\n", + "df[\"decile\"] = pd.cut(df[\"net_base\"],\n", + " bins=edges,\n", + " labels=np.arange(1, 11),\n", + " include_lowest=True)\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 3. Weighted average Δnet-income by decile\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "decile_avg = (\n", + " df.groupby(\"decile\")\n", + " .apply(lambda g: np.average(g[\"delta\"], weights=g[\"weight\"]))\n", + " .reset_index(name=\"avg_change\")\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 4. Use brand colours: blue if gain, dark-gray if loss\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "bar_colors = [\n", + " POS_COLOR if v >= 0 else NEG_COLOR\n", + " for v in decile_avg[\"avg_change\"]\n", + "]\n", + "\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "# 5. Plot\n", + "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n", + "fig = go.Figure(\n", + " data=[\n", + " go.Bar(\n", + " x=decile_avg[\"decile\"].astype(int),\n", + " y=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"],\n", + " marker_color=bar_colors,\n", + " text=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"].apply(lambda v: f\"${v:,.0f}\"),\n", + " textposition=\"inside\",\n", + " )\n", + " ],\n", + " layout=dict(\n", + " title=\"Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026\",\n", + " xaxis_title=\"Income Decile\",\n", + " yaxis_title=\"Average change in household net income ($)\",\n", + " showlegend=False,\n", + " )\n", + ")\n", + "fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_color=\"black\")\n", + "fig.show()\n", + "fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1) # show 1-10 instead of only the evens\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 18, + "id": "1jhns1uinylj", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Number of households gaining PTC under reform: 1100\n", + "Weighted count: 3,503,693\n", + "\n", + "Average reform PTC for these households: $5,707.33\n", + "Weighted average reform PTC: $5,972.71\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's analyze the households affected by the ACA reform\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", + "# First, let's look at households that gain PTC under reform but had none in baseline\n", + "gained_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"Number of households gaining PTC under reform: {len(gained_ptc)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage reform PTC for these households: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted average reform PTC: ${(gained_ptc['aca_reform'] * gained_ptc['weight']).sum() / gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.2f}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 20, + "id": "qzjyh3eo44", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Income percentiles across all households:\n", + " 25th percentile: $6,159\n", + " 50th percentile: $68,947\n", + " 75th percentile: $172,785\n", + " 90th percentile: $504,951\n", + " 95th percentile: $2,181,010\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n", + "============================================================\n", + "count 1.100000e+03\n", + "mean 5.555715e+05\n", + "std 4.699500e+06\n", + "min 0.000000e+00\n", + "25% 7.411113e+04\n", + "50% 1.099418e+05\n", + "75% 1.631940e+05\n", + "max 1.033826e+08\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n", + "============================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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2165595958CT586290.41992229020.2460941.00.00.000351
2092692239VT169552.75390628546.5488281.02.02193.554443
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27701115102MO41373.52490227333.1875001.00.00.002778
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_reform Married \\\n", + "21655 95958 CT 586290.419922 29020.246094 1.0 \n", + "20926 92239 VT 169552.753906 28546.548828 1.0 \n", + "16135 69304 WY 172368.441406 27582.343750 1.0 \n", + "7046 25635 MO 37921.058594 27411.421875 1.0 \n", + "27701 115102 MO 41373.524902 27333.187500 1.0 \n", + "14065 59697 OK 68947.382812 26790.708984 1.0 \n", + "7058 25669 MO 0.000000 26257.669922 1.0 \n", + "34720 149164 OK 76835.164062 26118.769531 1.0 \n", + "19738 84350 CA 88482.460938 25993.980469 1.0 \n", + "40316 173580 CA 102149.837891 25538.492188 1.0 \n", + "\n", + " Num_Dependents weight \n", + "21655 0.0 0.000351 \n", + "20926 2.0 2193.554443 \n", + "16135 3.0 1964.266357 \n", + "7046 0.0 1342.842773 \n", + "27701 0.0 0.002778 \n", + "14065 0.0 3511.932373 \n", + "7058 0.0 2463.500000 \n", + "34720 0.0 0.004654 \n", + "19738 0.0 334.342865 \n", + "40316 0.0 0.002264 " + ] + }, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "display_data" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n", + "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n", + "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n", + "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n", + "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n", + "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n", + " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n", + "display(top_gainers)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 21, + "id": "6ngx1hex7d7", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Income percentiles across all households:\n", + " 25th percentile: $6,159\n", + " 50th percentile: $68,947\n", + " 75th percentile: $172,785\n", + " 90th percentile: $504,951\n", + " 95th percentile: $2,181,010\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n", + "============================================================\n", + "count 1.100000e+03\n", + "mean 5.555715e+05\n", + "std 4.699500e+06\n", + "min 0.000000e+00\n", + "25% 7.411113e+04\n", + "50% 1.099418e+05\n", + "75% 1.631940e+05\n", + "max 1.033826e+08\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "============================================================\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n", + "============================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomeaca_reformMarriedNum_Dependentsweight
2165595958CT586290.41992229020.2460941.00.00.000351
2092692239VT169552.75390628546.5488281.02.02193.554443
1613569304WY172368.44140627582.3437501.03.01964.266357
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27701115102MO41373.52490227333.1875001.00.00.002778
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_reform Married \\\n", + "21655 95958 CT 586290.419922 29020.246094 1.0 \n", + "20926 92239 VT 169552.753906 28546.548828 1.0 \n", + "16135 69304 WY 172368.441406 27582.343750 1.0 \n", + "7046 25635 MO 37921.058594 27411.421875 1.0 \n", + "27701 115102 MO 41373.524902 27333.187500 1.0 \n", + "14065 59697 OK 68947.382812 26790.708984 1.0 \n", + "7058 25669 MO 0.000000 26257.669922 1.0 \n", + "34720 149164 OK 76835.164062 26118.769531 1.0 \n", + "19738 84350 CA 88482.460938 25993.980469 1.0 \n", + "40316 173580 CA 102149.837891 25538.492188 1.0 \n", + "\n", + " Num_Dependents weight \n", + "21655 0.0 0.000351 \n", + "20926 2.0 2193.554443 \n", + "16135 3.0 1964.266357 \n", + "7046 0.0 1342.842773 \n", + "27701 0.0 0.002778 \n", + "14065 0.0 3511.932373 \n", + "7058 0.0 2463.500000 \n", + "34720 0.0 0.004654 \n", + "19738 0.0 334.342865 \n", + "40316 0.0 0.002264 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 21, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n", + "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n", + "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n", + "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n", + "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n", + "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n", + " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n", + "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*60)\n", + "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n", + "top_gainers" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 22, + "id": "fbg7gtwvt09", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\n", + "Number of households: 0\n", + "Weighted count: 0\n", + "\n", + "Average baseline PTC: $nan\n", + "Average reform PTC: $nan\n", + "Average loss: $nan\n", + "\n", + "Income distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\n", + "count 0.0\n", + "mean NaN\n", + "std NaN\n", + "min NaN\n", + "25% NaN\n", + "50% NaN\n", + "75% NaN\n", + "max NaN\n", + "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "Top 10 households by PTC loss:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomeaca_baselineaca_reformnet_changeweight
\n", + "
" + ], + "text/plain": [ + "Empty DataFrame\n", + "Columns: [household_id, State, Employment_Income, aca_baseline, aca_reform, net_change, weight]\n", + "Index: []" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 22, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Now let's look at households losing PTC or seeing reduced PTC\n", + "lost_or_reduced = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['net_change'] < 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\")\n", + "print(f\"Number of households: {len(lost_or_reduced)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {lost_or_reduced['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average loss: ${lost_or_reduced['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Income distribution\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\")\n", + "print(lost_or_reduced['Employment_Income'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "# Top losers\n", + "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC loss:\")\n", + "top_losers = lost_or_reduced.nsmallest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n", + "top_losers" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "id": "y1a0d1tqy9n", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\n", + "Number of households: 3406\n", + "Weighted count: 11,828,817\n", + "\n", + "Average baseline PTC: $7,582.03\n", + "Average reform PTC: $9,510.45\n", + "Average change: $1,928.42\n", + "\n", + "Distribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\n", + "count 3406.000000\n", + "mean 1928.417004\n", + "std 1464.484689\n", + "min 433.568359\n", + "25% 1265.441895\n", + "50% 1612.739014\n", + "75% 2209.899292\n", + "max 24195.677979\n", + "Name: net_change, dtype: float64\n", + "\n", + "Top 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \\\n", + "25895 109280 IL 135262.814827 2166.071045 26361.749023 \n", + "21501 95388 CT 229315.603271 2461.534180 25936.906494 \n", + "20625 88926 HI 119508.789062 3365.458740 25774.730469 \n", + "6106 22572 WI 91929.835449 5390.636230 26178.041016 \n", + "15170 63406 TX 56307.025391 3461.937988 23926.217285 \n", + "32728 138331 KY 143819.542969 2214.557861 20885.525879 \n", + "16147 69708 WY 40219.304688 7641.085938 23462.459961 \n", + "36802 159175 WY 322659.273438 6483.185059 22133.864258 \n", + "20237 85992 CA 264716.572266 2762.978271 17937.049805 \n", + "39405 170489 CA 200459.942383 3582.745850 17706.862793 \n", + "\n", + " net_change weight \n", + "25895 24195.677979 0.005656 \n", + "21501 23475.372314 0.000415 \n", + "20625 22409.271729 729.324707 \n", + "6106 20787.404785 6035.339844 \n", + "15170 20464.279297 36817.671875 \n", + "32728 18670.968018 0.046630 \n", + "16147 15821.374023 1604.936035 \n", + "36802 15650.679199 1445.953613 \n", + "20237 15174.071533 5193.151367 \n", + "39405 14124.116943 0.002236 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Interesting - no households lose PTC! Let's look at those who keep their PTC but see changes\n", + "kept_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n", + "\n", + "print(\"Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\")\n", + "print(f\"Number of households: {len(kept_ptc)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {kept_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\"Average change: ${kept_ptc['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Show distribution of changes\n", + "print(\"\\nDistribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\")\n", + "print(kept_ptc['net_change'].describe())\n", + "\n", + "# Households with biggest increases among those who already had PTC\n", + "print(\"\\nTop 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\")\n", + "top_increases = kept_ptc.nlargest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n", + "top_increases" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 24, + "id": "7pukgyq18zt", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "======================================================================\n", + "ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "\n", + "Households between 350-450% FPL: 3110\n", + "Weighted count: 12,367,979\n", + "\n", + "Below 400% FPL (350-400%): 1565 households\n", + " Average baseline PTC: $1,110.95\n", + " Average reform PTC: $1,612.20\n", + " Average change: $501.25\n", + "\n", + "Above 400% FPL (400-450%): 1545 households\n", + " Average baseline PTC: $686.16\n", + " Average reform PTC: $1,385.85\n", + " Average change: $699.69\n", + "\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\n", + "======================================================================\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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household_idStateEmployment_Incomefpl_ratioaca_baselineaca_reformnet_changeweight
1291ME85344.212891403.9006760.00.00.04.466252
61495ME105351.593262395.3155470.00.00.017.447075
2812971VT85035.097656402.4377550.00.00.0332.319000
4763945MA106868.429688401.0072410.00.00.057237.523438
6614662MA62052.640625398.5397600.00.00.07.987278
8065462RI106868.433594401.0072560.00.00.09386.629883
9076168CT62052.640625398.5397600.00.00.024166.259766
10816785NY84344.468750399.1692790.00.00.04.944809
11046872NY85035.101562402.4377740.00.00.010.947828
11066874NY62052.640625398.5397600.00.00.04.106772
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" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " household_id State Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n", + "12 91 ME 85344.212891 403.900676 0.0 \n", + "61 495 ME 105351.593262 395.315547 0.0 \n", + "281 2971 VT 85035.097656 402.437755 0.0 \n", + "476 3945 MA 106868.429688 401.007241 0.0 \n", + "661 4662 MA 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n", + "806 5462 RI 106868.433594 401.007256 0.0 \n", + "907 6168 CT 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n", + "1081 6785 NY 84344.468750 399.169279 0.0 \n", + "1104 6872 NY 85035.101562 402.437774 0.0 \n", + "1106 6874 NY 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n", + "\n", + " aca_reform net_change weight \n", + "12 0.0 0.0 4.466252 \n", + "61 0.0 0.0 17.447075 \n", + "281 0.0 0.0 332.319000 \n", + "476 0.0 0.0 57237.523438 \n", + "661 0.0 0.0 7.987278 \n", + "806 0.0 0.0 9386.629883 \n", + "907 0.0 0.0 24166.259766 \n", + "1081 0.0 0.0 4.944809 \n", + "1104 0.0 0.0 10.947828 \n", + "1106 0.0 0.0 4.106772 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 24, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's calculate approximate FPL levels for households to understand where they fall\n", + "# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations based on current trends)\n", + "fpl_2026 = {\n", + " 1: 15570, # Single person\n", + " 2: 21130, # Couple\n", + " 3: 26650, # Family of 3\n", + " 4: 32200, # Family of 4\n", + " 5: 37750, # Family of 5\n", + " 6: 43300, # Family of 6\n", + " 7: 48850, # Family of 7\n", + " 8: 54400, # Family of 8\n", + "}\n", + "\n", + "# Calculate household size and FPL ratio\n", + "df_outputs['household_size'] = 2 + df_outputs['Num_Dependents'] # Assuming married couples or singles with deps\n", + "df_outputs['household_size'] = df_outputs.apply(\n", + " lambda row: (1 + row['Married'] + row['Num_Dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['Married']) else 1,\n", + " axis=1\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "# Map FPL based on household size\n", + "df_outputs['fpl_threshold'] = df_outputs['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400))\n", + "df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] = (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] / df_outputs['fpl_threshold']) * 100\n", + "\n", + "# Now let's analyze the cliff effect around 400% FPL\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "\n", + "# Households just below and above 400% FPL\n", + "near_cliff = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)]\n", + "print(f\"\\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL: {len(near_cliff)}\")\n", + "print(f\"Weighted count: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Split by those above and below 400% FPL\n", + "below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400]\n", + "above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%): {len(below_400)} households\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%): {len(above_400)} households\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Show some examples\n", + "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "cliff_examples = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 395) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 405)]\n", + "cliff_examples_display = cliff_examples[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n", + " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']].head(10)\n", + "cliff_examples_display" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 25, + "id": "hmhah1unlwn", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "ename": "ValueError", + "evalue": "Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges", + "output_type": "error", + "traceback": [ + "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[25], line 3\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Calculate income deciles\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 3\u001b[0m df_outputs[\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m] \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mpd\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mqcut\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mdf_outputs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mEmployment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m10\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mrange\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m11\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mdrop\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Group by decile and show the effect\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m decile_analysis \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m df_outputs\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mgroupby(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39magg({\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mEmployment_Income\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: [\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmin\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmax\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m],\n\u001b[1;32m 8\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mfpl_ratio\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 12\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mweight\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124msum\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m })\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mround(\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m)\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:340\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mqcut\u001b[0;34m(x, q, labels, retbins, precision, duplicates)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 336\u001b[0m quantiles \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mlinspace(\u001b[38;5;241m0\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m, q \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m) \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m is_integer(q) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m q\n\u001b[1;32m 338\u001b[0m bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m x_idx\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mto_series()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdropna()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mquantile(quantiles)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 340\u001b[0m fac, bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 341\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mx_idx\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 342\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mIndex\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbins\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 343\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 344\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 345\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43minclude_lowest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mTrue\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 346\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 347\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 349\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m _postprocess_for_cut(fac, bins, retbins, original)\n", + "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:493\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[0;34m(x_idx, bins, right, labels, precision, include_lowest, duplicates, ordered)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 491\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 492\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;241m!=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(bins) \u001b[38;5;241m-\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 493\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\n\u001b[1;32m 494\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mBin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 495\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 497\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mgetattr\u001b[39m(labels, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdtype\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m), CategoricalDtype):\n\u001b[1;32m 498\u001b[0m labels \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m Categorical(\n\u001b[1;32m 499\u001b[0m labels,\n\u001b[1;32m 500\u001b[0m categories\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mlabels \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mset\u001b[39m(labels)) \u001b[38;5;241m==\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m,\n\u001b[1;32m 501\u001b[0m ordered\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mordered,\n\u001b[1;32m 502\u001b[0m )\n", + "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\n", + "# Calculate income deciles\n", + "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, labels=range(1, 11), duplicates='drop')\n", + "\n", + "# Group by decile and show the effect\n", + "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('income_decile').agg({\n", + " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n", + " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n", + " 'net_change': 'mean',\n", + " 'weight': 'sum'\n", + "}).round(2)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n", + "decile_analysis" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 25, + "id": "w09m1i1mc5q", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "======================================================================\n", + "PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\n", + "======================================================================\n", + "\n", + "Income ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\n" + ] + }, + { + "data": { + "text/html": [ + "
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Employment_Incomefpl_ratioaca_baselineaca_reformnet_changeweight
minmaxmeanmeanmeanmeanmeansum
decile_num
10.0022082.703081.2316.50481.01618.01136.9956060974.39
222096.5640219.3031811.30167.521638.771989.05350.2718267145.22
340220.4559168.3450102.24254.531575.922062.44486.5213547056.92
459179.8380438.6169904.57343.951437.252029.91592.6612499143.93
580438.61106574.5393253.97434.801303.702060.30756.6011057517.34
6106597.34142491.25122908.07554.42816.631518.36701.7213853349.38
7142491.25205693.01169652.75727.25489.021177.16688.1410689611.79
8205693.023305428.97382158.511548.38210.36482.04271.6711524346.53
\n", + "
" + ], + "text/plain": [ + " Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n", + " min max mean mean mean \n", + "decile_num \n", + "1 0.00 22082.70 3081.23 16.50 481.01 \n", + "2 22096.56 40219.30 31811.30 167.52 1638.77 \n", + "3 40220.45 59168.34 50102.24 254.53 1575.92 \n", + "4 59179.83 80438.61 69904.57 343.95 1437.25 \n", + "5 80438.61 106574.53 93253.97 434.80 1303.70 \n", + "6 106597.34 142491.25 122908.07 554.42 816.63 \n", + "7 142491.25 205693.01 169652.75 727.25 489.02 \n", + "8 205693.02 3305428.97 382158.51 1548.38 210.36 \n", + "\n", + " aca_reform net_change weight \n", + " mean mean sum \n", + "decile_num \n", + "1 618.01 136.99 56060974.39 \n", + "2 1989.05 350.27 18267145.22 \n", + "3 2062.44 486.52 13547056.92 \n", + "4 2029.91 592.66 12499143.93 \n", + "5 2060.30 756.60 11057517.34 \n", + "6 1518.36 701.72 13853349.38 \n", + "7 1177.16 688.14 10689611.79 \n", + "8 482.04 271.67 11524346.53 " + ] + }, + "execution_count": 25, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Fix the decile calculation\n", + "# Calculate income deciles without explicit labels to avoid the error\n", + "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, duplicates='drop')\n", + "\n", + "# Get unique deciles and sort them\n", + "deciles = sorted(df_outputs['income_decile'].unique())\n", + "\n", + "# Create a mapping to simpler labels\n", + "decile_map = {d: i+1 for i, d in enumerate(deciles)}\n", + "df_outputs['decile_num'] = df_outputs['income_decile'].map(decile_map)\n", + "\n", + "# Group by decile and show the effect\n", + "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('decile_num').agg({\n", + " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n", + " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n", + " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n", + " 'net_change': 'mean',\n", + " 'weight': 'sum'\n", + "}).round(2)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n", + "decile_analysis" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "id": "fbfun838g2", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "# Let's look at where in the data the 9th decile falls (the one from the chart)\n", + "# Since we only have 8 groups due to duplicates being dropped, let's recalculate properly\n", + "\n", + "# First, let's understand the actual income distribution better\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "\n", + "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n", + "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n", + "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n", + "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n", + " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# The 9th decile should be roughly between 80th and 90th percentile\n", + "ninth_decile = df_outputs[(df_outputs['Employment_Income'] >= income_pcts[7]) & \n", + " (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] < income_pcts[8])]\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\n9th Decile (80-90th percentile):\")\n", + "print(f\" Income range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Number of households: {len(ninth_decile)}\")\n", + "print(f\" Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n", + "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Now let's see WHO specifically gains in the 9th decile\n", + "ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100] # Gains more than $100\n", + "\n", + "print(f\"\\nHouseholds in 9th decile with gains > $100:\")\n", + "print(f\" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers)}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['Employment_Income'].mean():,.0f}\")\n", + "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n", + "print(f\" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n", + "\n", + "# Look at specific examples\n", + "print(\"\\nExample households in 9th decile with large gains:\")\n", + "examples = ninth_decile_gainers.nlargest(5, 'net_change')[\n", + " ['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n", + " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents']\n", + "]\n", + "examples" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 26, + "id": "inz803s5rlm", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stdout", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "Checking available variables:\n", + "df_outputs exists: True\n", + "df_outputs shape: (21607, 14)\n", + "Columns: ['household_id', 'State', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'weight', 'net_change', 'household_size', 'fpl_threshold', 'fpl_ratio', 'income_decile', 'decile_num']\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "# Check if the dataframe exists and has the needed columns\n", + "print(\"Checking available variables:\")\n", + "print(f\"df_outputs exists: {'df_outputs' in locals()}\")\n", + "if 'df_outputs' in locals():\n", + " print(f\"df_outputs shape: {df_outputs.shape}\")\n", + " print(f\"Columns: {list(df_outputs.columns)}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "id": "qhtylcg4wz", + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "# Understanding the 9th decile concentration\n", + "import numpy as np\n", + "\n", + "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n", + "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n", + "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n", + "\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n", + "print(\"=\"*70)\n", + "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n", + "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n", + " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")" + ] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb index ede0341..8dded8f 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -86,16 +86,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "35.9928663871468" + "19.8896926531077" ] }, - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -106,16 +106,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "40.21955536317878" + "31.542351631973787" ] }, - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -126,16 +126,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "76.21242175032557" + "51.43204428508149" ] }, - "execution_count": 8, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ "0.0" ] }, - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -177,7 +177,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -188,7 +188,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -197,7 +197,7 @@ "0.0" ] }, - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -208,7 +208,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -217,16 +217,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "74.6098250482967" + "41.48141013389625" ] }, - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -237,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 14, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -246,16 +246,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "95.18610952164795" + "85.14359348561398" ] }, - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 15, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -267,16 +267,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "139.72365076048433" + "170.0861678993786" ] }, - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 16, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -287,16 +287,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "19.86982053600405" + "15.364080432275241" ] }, - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 17, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -309,16 +309,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.1975184763353" + "15.617468693659635" ] }, - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 18, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -331,16 +331,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "20.31200607083411" + "15.705994718609649" ] }, - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -353,16 +353,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "66.06914323356507" + "61.45083694065887" ] }, - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": 20, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -375,16 +375,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "351.4008758453535" + "356.50153524161357" ] }, - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -397,16 +397,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "2024 0.051032864873153116\n", + "2024 0.054597097187702254\n", "2025 1.0\n", - "2026 0.05103286425002665\n" + "2026 0.05459709726223681\n" ] } ], @@ -419,16 +419,16 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "219563611137.93384" + "131288173629.472" ] }, - "execution_count": 24, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -441,24 +441,9 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 27, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "ename": "ValueError", - "evalue": "Variable medicaid does not exist.", - "output_type": "error", - "traceback": [ - "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", - "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[27], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mmedicaid\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2024\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid\u001b[38;5;241m/\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m1e6\u001b[39m\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n", - "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n", - "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable medicaid does not exist." - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [] } ], diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb index e761e03..d5bbf99 100644 --- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb +++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb @@ -2,9 +2,18 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n", "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n", @@ -16,7 +25,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 12, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -52,7 +61,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -149,7 +158,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -228,7 +237,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 15, + "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -250,7 +259,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -313,7 +322,7 @@ "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172" ] }, - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -385,7 +394,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -477,7 +486,7 @@ "3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 " ] }, - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -577,7 +586,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -622,7 +631,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ @@ -634,7 +643,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": 19, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -14432,11 +14441,11 @@ "data": [ { "line": { - "color": "#808080", + "color": "#2C6496", "width": 2 }, "mode": "lines", - "name": "CHIP (Baseline)", + "name": "ACA PTC (Baseline)", "type": "scatter", "x": [ 0, @@ 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1221.728515625, + 1175.0517578125, + 1128.3759765625, + 1081.7001953125, + 1035.0234375, + 988.3466796875, + 941.6708984375, + 894.9951171875, + 848.318359375, + 801.642578125, + 754.966796875, + 708.2900390625, + 661.6142578125, + 614.9375, + 568.26171875, + 521.5849609375, + 474.9091796875, + 428.2333984375, + 381.556640625, + 334.880859375, + 288.2041015625, + 241.5283203125, + 194.8525390625, + 148.17578125, + 101.5, + 54.8232421875, + 8.1474609375, 0, 0, 0, @@ -28297,13 +21852,6 @@ "fig_texas = go.Figure()\n", "\n", "# Add baseline traces (solid lines)\n", - "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_texas, \n", - " y=baseline_texas_per_capita_chip, \n", - " mode='lines', \n", - " name='CHIP (Baseline)', \n", - " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2)\n", - "))\n", "\n", "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_texas, \n", @@ -28313,22 +21861,7 @@ " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2)\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_texas, \n", - " y=baseline_texas_medicaid_cost, \n", - " mode='lines', \n", - " name='Medicaid (Baseline)', \n", - " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2)\n", - "))\n", "\n", - "# Add reform traces (dotted lines)\n", - "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_texas, \n", - " y=reform_texas_per_capita_chip, \n", - " mode='lines', \n", - " name='CHIP (Reform)', \n", - " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", - "))\n", "\n", "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", " x=household_income_texas, \n", @@ -28338,13 +21871,7 @@ " line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n", "))\n", "\n", - "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " x=household_income_texas, \n", - " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost,\n", - " mode='lines', \n", - " name='Medicaid (Reform)', \n", - " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')\n", - "))\n", + "\n", "\n", "# Add total lines\n", "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", @@ -28387,7 +21914,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", 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@@ -50093,7 +43620,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.12.2" + "version": "3.10.16" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py b/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8334766 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py @@ -0,0 +1,210 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python +""" +Analyze ACA cliff effects from the IRA reform analysis +This script examines why effects are concentrated in the 9th income decile +""" + +import pandas as pd +import numpy as np +from policyengine_us import Microsimulation +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + +print("Loading data and setting up simulations...") + +# Define the reform (same as in notebook) +reform = Reform.from_dict({ + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount": { + "2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.02 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.04 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.06 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.085 + }, + "gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount": { + "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True + } +}, country_id="us") + +# Load microsimulations +print("Loading microsimulation data (this may take a moment)...") +baseline = Microsimulation(dataset="hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5") +reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset="hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5") + +# Calculate key variables +year = 2026 +print(f"\nCalculating values for year {year}...") + +employment_income = baseline.calculate("employment_income", map_to="household", period=year) +num_dependents = baseline.calculate("tax_unit_dependents", map_to="household", period=year) +married = baseline.calculate("is_married", map_to="household", period=year) +aca_baseline = baseline.calculate("aca_ptc", map_to="household", period=year) +aca_reform = reformed.calculate("aca_ptc", map_to="household", period=year) +weights = baseline.calculate("household_weight", period=year) +state = baseline.calculate("state_code", map_to="household", period=year) + +# Create DataFrame +df = pd.DataFrame({ + "employment_income": employment_income, + "num_dependents": num_dependents, + "married": married, + "aca_baseline": aca_baseline, + "aca_reform": aca_reform, + "weight": weights, + "state": state, + "net_change": aca_reform - aca_baseline +}) + +print(f"Total households in dataset: {len(df):,}") +print(f"Weighted household count: {df['weight'].sum():,.0f}") + +# Calculate FPL ratios +print("\nCalculating FPL ratios...") +# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations) +fpl_2026 = { + 1: 15570, # Single person + 2: 21130, # Couple + 3: 26650, # Family of 3 + 4: 32200, # Family of 4 + 5: 37750, # Family of 5 + 6: 43300, # Family of 6 + 7: 48850, # Family of 7 + 8: 54400, # Family of 8 +} + +# Calculate household size +df['household_size'] = df.apply( + lambda row: int(1 + row['married'] + row['num_dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['married']) else 1, + axis=1 +) + +# Map FPL based on household size +df['fpl_threshold'] = df['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400)) +df['fpl_ratio'] = (df['employment_income'] / df['fpl_threshold']) * 100 + +# Analyze income percentiles +print("\n" + "="*70) +print("INCOME DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS") +print("="*70) + +percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99] +income_pcts = np.percentile(df['employment_income'], percentiles) + +print("\nIncome distribution percentiles:") +for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts): + # Calculate approx FPL for a family of 3 at this income + fpl_pct = (val / 26650) * 100 + print(f" {p:2d}th percentile: ${val:8,.0f} (~{fpl_pct:3.0f}% FPL for family of 3)") + +# Analyze the 9th decile specifically +print("\n" + "="*70) +print("9TH DECILE ANALYSIS (80th-90th percentile)") +print("="*70) + +ninth_decile = df[(df['employment_income'] >= income_pcts[7]) & + (df['employment_income'] < income_pcts[8])] + +print(f"\nIncome range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}") +print(f"Number of households: {len(ninth_decile):,}") +print(f"Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}") +print(f"Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%") +print(f"Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f"Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f"Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}") + +# Analyze who gains in the 9th decile +ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100] +print(f"\nHouseholds in 9th decile gaining >$100 in PTC:") +print(f" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers):,} ({100*len(ninth_decile_gainers)/len(ninth_decile):.1f}% of 9th decile)") +print(f" Weighted count: {ninth_decile_gainers['weight'].sum():,.0f}") +print(f" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['employment_income'].mean():,.0f}") +print(f" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%") +print(f" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}") + +# Analyze the cliff at 400% FPL +print("\n" + "="*70) +print("400% FPL CLIFF ANALYSIS") +print("="*70) + +# Households near the cliff +near_cliff = df[(df['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)] +below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400] +above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400] + +print(f"\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL:") +print(f" Total: {len(near_cliff):,} households") +print(f" Weighted: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}") + +print(f"\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%):") +print(f" Count: {len(below_400):,}") +print(f" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}") + +print(f"\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%):") +print(f" Count: {len(above_400):,}") +print(f" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}") +print(f" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}") + +# Who gains PTC under reform? +print("\n" + "="*70) +print("WHO GAINS PTC UNDER THE REFORM?") +print("="*70) + +gained_ptc = df[(df['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df['aca_reform'] > 0)] +print(f"\nHouseholds gaining PTC (had $0, now have >$0):") +print(f" Count: {len(gained_ptc):,}") +print(f" Weighted: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}") +print(f" Average income: ${gained_ptc['employment_income'].mean():,.0f}") +print(f" Average FPL ratio: {gained_ptc['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%") +print(f" Average reform PTC: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}") + +# Income distribution of gainers +gainers_by_percentile = [] +for i, (low, high) in enumerate(zip([0] + list(income_pcts[:-1]), income_pcts)): + mask = (gained_ptc['employment_income'] >= low) & (gained_ptc['employment_income'] < high) + count = mask.sum() + weighted = gained_ptc.loc[mask, 'weight'].sum() + gainers_by_percentile.append((f"{(i+1)*10}th", count, weighted)) + +print("\nDistribution of PTC gainers by income percentile:") +for pct, count, weighted in gainers_by_percentile: + if count > 0: + print(f" {pct:4s} percentile: {count:4,} households ({weighted:,.0f} weighted)") + +# Key insight summary +print("\n" + "="*70) +print("KEY INSIGHTS") +print("="*70) +print(""" +1. The 400% FPL threshold for a family of 3 in 2026 is approximately $106,600 + - This falls in the 80th-90th income percentile (9th decile) + +2. Households just above 400% FPL currently get $0 in PTC due to the cliff + - The reform extends subsidies to them, capping premiums at 8.5% of income + +3. The 9th decile concentration occurs because: + - These households earn too much for current subsidies (>400% FPL) + - But would benefit significantly from the reform's extension + - Lower deciles (4-6) already receive subsidies under current law + +4. The "cliff" affects higher-income households than intuition might suggest + - It's not middle-class families at 200-300% FPL (they get subsidies) + - It's upper-middle-class families at 400-500% FPL who face the cliff +""") + +print("\nAnalysis complete!") \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/us/medicaid/claude_help.md b/us/medicaid/claude_help.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f75acb9 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/claude_help.md @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ + + +## Using Your Old Outputs as Ground Truth + +**Recreate key statistics and compare:** +- Total ACA enrollment (you noted ~2M drop - that's a red flag) +- Income distribution of enrollees +- Average subsidy amounts by income level +- Count of people near the subsidy cliff (138-400% FPL) + +**Reverse-engineer expected values:** +- If effects were in deciles 4-6 before, calculate what income range that implied +- Check if those income ranges in the new data still contain the population that should be affected by the cliff +- The subsidy cliff at 400% FPL should hit people around $50-60k (single) or $100-120k (family of 4) - verify which decile that falls into now + +## Critical Checks Without Old Data + +**Sanity check the new results:** +```python +# Check income percentiles to see if decile 9 makes sense +print(df.groupby('income_decile')['income'].describe()) +print(f"400% FPL for single: {fpl_single * 4}") +print(f"400% FPL for family of 4: {fpl_family4 * 4}") + +# Verify ACA enrollment totals +print(f"Total ACA enrollees: {df[df['aca_enrolled']==1]['weight'].sum()}") +# Compare to known ~14-15 million marketplace enrollment +``` + +**Look for data/code misalignment:** +- Variable name changes (income vs magi vs adjusted_income) +- Changes in categorical coding (0/1 vs 1/2 for enrollment) +- Unit changes (annual vs monthly income) +- Weight scaling issues (person weights in thousands vs ones) + +## Most Likely Culprits + +Given your symptoms, check these first: + +1. **Income definition changed** - The decile shift suggests income might be calculated differently (e.g., excluding certain sources, or using post-tax instead of pre-tax) + +2. **Weight rescaling** - A 2M drop in enrollment could be a simple weight scaling issue + +3. **Sample universe** - The data team might have restricted to a different population (e.g., only tax filers, or excluded dependents) + +4. **Decile calculation scope** - Are you calculating deciles over the full population or just ACA-eligible? This could drastically shift which incomes fall in decile 9 + +Would it help if I wrote some diagnostic code to check these specific issues? Also, what specific outputs did you document from your previous run - do you have things like mean income by decile, or counts of people at different FPL thresholds? \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb b/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb new file mode 100644 index 0000000..14142f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +{ + "cells": [ + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n", + " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 4, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "sim = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + " value weight\n", + "0 107805.242188 7.193183\n", + "1 67854.984375 5.331448\n", + "2 20952.380859 5.331448\n", + "3 1.457558 1523.087158\n", + "4 0.000000 1523.087158\n", + "... ... ...\n", + "56763 -1044.119141 0.019413\n", + "56764 31625.267578 0.001958\n", + "56765 15550.738281 0.002303\n", + "56766 24284.789062 0.002303\n", + "56767 86636.476562 0.003094\n", + "\n", + "[56768 rows x 2 columns]" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 5, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "sim.calculate('adjusted_gross_income')" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + " value weight\n", + "0 98.845360 608.083069\n", + "1 0.790763 608.083069\n", + "2 0.000000 608.083069\n", + "3 43622.523438 1576.879639\n", + "4 0.000000 1160.135986\n", + "... ... ...\n", + "77421 30575.771484 709.115173\n", + "77422 0.000000 586.208740\n", + "77423 26181.121094 387.369049\n", + "77424 110852.523438 387.369049\n", + "77425 120745.625000 723.155579\n", + "\n", + "[77426 rows x 2 columns]" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 8, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "sim_new = Microsimulation()\n", + "sim_new.calculate('adjusted_gross_income')" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [] + } + ], + "metadata": { + "kernelspec": { + "display_name": "policyengine", + "language": "python", + "name": "python3" + }, + "language_info": { + "codemirror_mode": { + "name": "ipython", + "version": 3 + }, + "file_extension": ".py", + "mimetype": "text/x-python", + "name": "python", + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", + "version": "3.10.16" + } + }, + "nbformat": 4, + "nbformat_minor": 2 +} diff --git a/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb index 01ac6ce..dbec8da 100644 --- a/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb +++ b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ "traceback": [ "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m", "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)", - "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[4], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m coverage_flag_2025 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline_2025\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mYEAR_FILTER\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m ptc_households \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mindex[coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mastype(\u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m)]\n", + "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[2], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m coverage_flag_2025 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline_2025\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mYEAR_FILTER\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m ptc_households \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mindex[coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mastype(\u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m)]\n", "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'baseline_2025' is not defined" ] }