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diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e774a8c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,1850 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 63,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
+ "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 64,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " }\n",
+ "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 65,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n",
+ "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", period=2024)\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 66,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "40.35911041608722"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 66,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline_aca_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"tax_unit\", period=2026).sum()\n",
+ "baseline_aca_eligible/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 67,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "227.28695912942868"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 67,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n",
+ "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 68,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "184,751,527 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2025\n",
+ "sim = baseline\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 69,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "23,752,636 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2026\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up_r = reformed.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc_r = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt_r = reformed.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up_r == 1) & (aca_ptc_r > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt_r).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 70,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "18,379,449 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2026\n",
+ "sim = baseline\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": []
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 71,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "year = 2026\n",
+ "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "aca_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 72,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Married | \n",
+ " Num_Dependents | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " 23890 | \n",
+ " 103176 | \n",
+ " PA | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
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+ " 39058.191406 | \n",
+ "
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+ " \n",
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+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
+ "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 94992.562805 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n",
+ "23890 91.854012 0.0 39058.191406 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 72,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n",
+ "data = {\n",
+ " \"household_id\": household_id,\n",
+ " \"State\": state,\n",
+ " \"Married\": married,\n",
+ " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n",
+ " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n",
+ " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n",
+ " \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n",
+ " }\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 73,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\n"
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+ "Most negative net-income changes (PTC cuts):\n"
+ ]
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+ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
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+ ]
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+ "metadata": {},
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+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0️⃣ Make sure the CPS household weight is in the DataFrame\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# If you already stuffed it in earlier, skip this.\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"weight\"] = aca_baseline.weights # aligns by household_id\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1️⃣ Define a weight threshold for “reasonably representative”\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "MIN_WT = 10_000 # ↖ try 5_000 if you want a looser cut\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_big = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"weight\"] >= MIN_WT].copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2️⃣ Net PTC change and (optionally) weighted national impact\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_big[\"net_change\"] = df_big[\"aca_reform\"] - df_big[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "df_big[\"wt_change\"] = df_big[\"net_change\"] * df_big[\"weight\"] # national $ impact\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 3️⃣ Biggest ↑ increases and ↓ decreases, LIMITED to big-weight HHs\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "N = 10 # how many households to show in each direction\n",
+ "\n",
+ "cols = [\"household_id\", \"State\", \"weight\", \"net_change\", \"wt_change\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "top_increases = df_big.nlargest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n",
+ "top_decreases = df_big.nsmallest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\")\n",
+ "display(top_increases)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\nMost negative net-income changes (PTC cuts):\")\n",
+ "display(top_decreases)\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 74,
+ "metadata": {},
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+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
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\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Married | \n",
+ " Num_Dependents | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ " weight | \n",
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\n",
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+ " \n",
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+ "text/plain": [
+ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
+ "19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
+ "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 12765.5 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 74,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 83988]\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 75,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,264.49\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# 0. Make sure net_change exists\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# 1. Flag households with any change\n",
+ "mask = df_outputs[\"net_change\"] != 0 # True for ↑ or ↓\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted mean among those households\n",
+ "avg_net_change = (\n",
+ " (df_outputs.loc[mask, \"net_change\"] * df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: \"\n",
+ " f\"${avg_net_change:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 76,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,654.84\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Keep only households with a PTC in *both* scenarios\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "mask_both_ptc = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] > 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n",
+ "df_dual_ptc = df_outputs[mask_both_ptc]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "avg_net_change_dual_hh = (\n",
+ " (df_dual_ptc[\"net_change\"] * df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both \"\n",
+ " f\"baseline and reform: ${avg_net_change_dual_hh:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
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+ "execution_count": 92,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Pull household-level results\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# ACA PTC (baseline and reform)\n",
+ "ptc_base = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "ptc_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Household weights (same for both sims)\n",
+ "hh_wt = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted sum of the change\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "weighted_total_change = ptc_reform - ptc_base\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Optional: average change per household\n",
+ "weighted_total_change.sum()/1e9"
+ ]
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+ "linecolor": "white",
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+ "gridcolor": "white",
+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": ""
+ },
+ "bgcolor": "#E5ECF6",
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+ "gridcolor": "white",
+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": ""
+ }
+ },
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+ },
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+ "gridcolor": "white",
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+ "title": {
+ "standoff": 15
+ },
+ "zerolinecolor": "white",
+ "zerolinewidth": 2
+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026"
+ },
+ "xaxis": {
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Income Decile"
+ }
+ },
+ "yaxis": {
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Average change in household net income ($)"
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# Brand hex codes (one-to-one with style.colors)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "COLOR_BLUE = \"#2C6496\" # style.colors.BLUE / BLUE_PRIMARY\n",
+ "COLOR_BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\" # style.colors.BLUE_LIGHT / BLUE_95\n",
+ "COLOR_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\" # style.colors.LIGHT_GRAY\n",
+ "COLOR_MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\" # style.colors.MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY\n",
+ "COLOR_DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\" # style.colors.DARK_GRAY\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ––– choose colours for positive vs. negative average bars –––\n",
+ "POS_COLOR = COLOR_BLUE\n",
+ "NEG_COLOR = COLOR_DARK_GRAY\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Pull baseline / reform net income + weights\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "net_base = baseline.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "net_reform = reformed.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"net_base\": net_base,\n",
+ " \"delta\": net_reform - net_base,\n",
+ " \"weight\": weights,\n",
+ "})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted decile edges (baseline ranking)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "def wquantile(values, qs, w):\n",
+ " srt = np.argsort(values)\n",
+ " values, w = values[srt], w[srt]\n",
+ " cum_w = np.cumsum(w) / np.sum(w)\n",
+ " return np.interp(qs, cum_w, values)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "edges = wquantile(df[\"net_base\"].values,\n",
+ " np.linspace(0, 1, 11), df[\"weight\"].values)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df[\"decile\"] = pd.cut(df[\"net_base\"],\n",
+ " bins=edges,\n",
+ " labels=np.arange(1, 11),\n",
+ " include_lowest=True)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 3. Weighted average Δnet-income by decile\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "decile_avg = (\n",
+ " df.groupby(\"decile\")\n",
+ " .apply(lambda g: np.average(g[\"delta\"], weights=g[\"weight\"]))\n",
+ " .reset_index(name=\"avg_change\")\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 4. Use brand colours: blue if gain, dark-gray if loss\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "bar_colors = [\n",
+ " POS_COLOR if v >= 0 else NEG_COLOR\n",
+ " for v in decile_avg[\"avg_change\"]\n",
+ "]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 5. Plot\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "fig = go.Figure(\n",
+ " data=[\n",
+ " go.Bar(\n",
+ " x=decile_avg[\"decile\"].astype(int),\n",
+ " y=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"],\n",
+ " marker_color=bar_colors,\n",
+ " text=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"].apply(lambda v: f\"${v:,.0f}\"),\n",
+ " textposition=\"inside\",\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " ],\n",
+ " layout=dict(\n",
+ " title=\"Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026\",\n",
+ " xaxis_title=\"Income Decile\",\n",
+ " yaxis_title=\"Average change in household net income ($)\",\n",
+ " showlegend=False,\n",
+ " fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1),\n",
+ " )\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_color=\"black\")\n",
+ "fig.show()\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.10.16"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}
diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
index d8af84e..e819b47 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
@@ -2,9 +2,18 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 55,
+ "execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -16,7 +25,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 56,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -52,7 +61,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 57,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -149,7 +158,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 58,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -228,7 +237,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 59,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -250,7 +259,324 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 60,
+ "execution_count": 6,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " income_label | \n",
+ " income_usd | \n",
+ " ptc_baseline | \n",
+ " ptc_ira_reform | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 138 % FPL ($29,187) | \n",
+ " 29187 | \n",
+ " 9128.747070 | \n",
+ " 10090.201172 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 1 | \n",
+ " 300 % FPL ($63,450) | \n",
+ " 63450 | \n",
+ " 4062.451172 | \n",
+ " 6283.201172 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 2 | \n",
+ " 400 % FPL ($84,600) | \n",
+ " 84600 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 2899.201172 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform\n",
+ "0 138 % FPL ($29,187) 29187 9128.747070 10090.201172\n",
+ "1 300 % FPL ($63,450) 63450 4062.451172 6283.201172\n",
+ "2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 6,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import copy\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Convenience: build & run a one-income Texas couple simulation\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "def calc_ptc_for_income(base_situation: dict, income: float, *, use_reform=False):\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " Return ACA PTC (household-level) for the given income.\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Parameters\n",
+ " ----------\n",
+ " base_situation : dict\n",
+ " The original `situation_texas` dict from the notebook.\n",
+ " income : float\n",
+ " Total household employment income to test (USD, annual).\n",
+ " use_reform : bool, default False\n",
+ " If True, applies the IRA-style `reform` object.\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Returns\n",
+ " -------\n",
+ " float\n",
+ " PTC in dollars for period 2026.\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " # Deep-copy so we don’t mutate the original dict\n",
+ " sit = copy.deepcopy(base_situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # Remove axes so we run a single-point simulation\n",
+ " sit.pop(\"axes\", None)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # Split income 50/50 between the two adults\n",
+ " for person in [\"you\", \"your partner\"]:\n",
+ " sit[\"people\"][person][\"employment_income\"] = {\"2026\": income / 2}\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # Run the simulation (baseline or reform)\n",
+ " sim = Simulation(situation=sit, reform=reform if use_reform else None)\n",
+ " # Household-level PTC for 2026 comes back as a 1-element array\n",
+ " return sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Pull the three requested incomes\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "targets = {\n",
+ " \"138 % FPL ($29,187)\": 29_187,\n",
+ " \"300 % FPL ($63,450)\": 63_450,\n",
+ " \"400 % FPL ($84,600)\": 84_600,\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "rows = []\n",
+ "for label, inc in targets.items():\n",
+ " rows.append(\n",
+ " {\n",
+ " \"income_label\": label,\n",
+ " \"income_usd\": inc,\n",
+ " \"ptc_baseline\": calc_ptc_for_income(situation_texas, inc, use_reform=False),\n",
+ " \"ptc_ira_reform\": calc_ptc_for_income(situation_texas, inc, use_reform=True),\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " )\n",
+ "\n",
+ "ptc_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)\n",
+ "ptc_df\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " income_label | \n",
+ " income_usd | \n",
+ " ptc_baseline | \n",
+ " ptc_ira_reform | \n",
+ " medicaid_cost | \n",
+ " per_capita_chip | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " 0 | \n",
+ " 154 % FPL ($41,041) | \n",
+ " 41041 | \n",
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+ " 0.000000 | \n",
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+ " \n",
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+ " 200 % FPL ($53,300) | \n",
+ " 53300 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 12930.671875 | \n",
+ " 829.929932 | \n",
+ "
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+ " \n",
+ " 2 | \n",
+ " 405 % FPL ($107,933) | \n",
+ " 107933 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 12268.548828 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 829.929932 | \n",
+ "
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+ " \n",
+ "
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+ "
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+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform \\\n",
+ "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.0 0.000000 \n",
+ "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.0 0.000000 \n",
+ "2 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.0 12268.548828 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n",
+ "0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n",
+ "1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n",
+ "2 0.000000 829.929932 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import copy\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Helper: run a one-point simulation and collect metrics\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "def get_metrics_for_income(base_situation: dict, income: float):\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " Returns baseline & reform PTC plus baseline Medicaid and CHIP metrics\n",
+ " for a New York family of three at the specified annual income.\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Parameters\n",
+ " ----------\n",
+ " base_situation : dict\n",
+ " Your `situation_ny` dictionary.\n",
+ " income : float\n",
+ " Total household employment income to test (USD, annual).\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Returns\n",
+ " -------\n",
+ " dict with keys\n",
+ " ptc_baseline – ACA PTC in baseline\n",
+ " ptc_ira_reform – ACA PTC under IRA-style reform\n",
+ " medicaid_cost – household Medicaid benefit (baseline)\n",
+ " per_capita_chip – CHIP benefit ÷ household size (baseline)\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " # ---------------- Copy & inject the income --------------------\n",
+ " sit = copy.deepcopy(base_situation)\n",
+ " sit.pop(\"axes\", None) # single-point sim only\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # Split income equally between both adults\n",
+ " for person in [\"you\", \"your partner\"]:\n",
+ " sit[\"people\"][person][\"employment_income\"] = {\"2026\": income / 2}\n",
+ "\n",
+ " hh_size = len(sit[\"people\"])\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # ---------------- Run simulations ----------------------------\n",
+ " sim_base = Simulation(situation=sit)\n",
+ " sim_reform = Simulation(situation=sit, reform=reform)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # ---------------- Pull variables -----------------------------\n",
+ " # ACA PTC\n",
+ " ptc_base = sim_base.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ " ptc_reform = sim_reform.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # Medicaid benefit (adult or child)\n",
+ " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ "\n",
+ " # CHIP benefit – variable names differ by PE-US version:\n",
+ " # * If your build has `chip_cost`, use that.\n",
+ " # * Otherwise use `chip` (total CHIP dollars) or adjust as needed.\n",
+ " chip_total = sim_base.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ " per_capita_chip = chip_total / hh_size if hh_size else 0\n",
+ "\n",
+ " return dict(\n",
+ " ptc_baseline = ptc_base,\n",
+ " ptc_ira_reform = ptc_reform,\n",
+ " medicaid_cost = medicaid_cost,\n",
+ " per_capita_chip = per_capita_chip,\n",
+ " )\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Income targets (family of 3, 2026 FPL thresholds you supplied)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "targets_ny = {\n",
+ " \"154 % FPL ($41,041)\" : 41_041,\n",
+ " \"200 % FPL ($53,300)\" : 53_300,\n",
+ " \"300 % FPL ($79,950)\": 79_950,\n",
+ " \"405 % FPL ($107,933)\": 107_933,\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "rows = []\n",
+ "for label, inc in targets_ny.items():\n",
+ " metrics = get_metrics_for_income(situation_new_york, inc)\n",
+ " rows.append(\n",
+ " dict(income_label = label, income_usd = inc, **metrics)\n",
+ " )\n",
+ "\n",
+ "ny_ptc_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)\n",
+ "ny_ptc_df\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 16,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "['you', 'your partner', 'your first dependent']\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": []
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
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],
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},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 64,
+ "execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
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From c5104d96972893d8aae5a7dccd181e236f4ecc5a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2025 09:36:05 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 10/15] notebooks
---
us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 921 +++++++++++++++++++++++++-
us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 80 ++-
2 files changed, 955 insertions(+), 46 deletions(-)
diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
index e774a8c..7a13d5c 100644
--- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
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},
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+ "bgcolor": "#E5ECF6",
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+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": ""
+ }
+ },
+ "title": {
+ "x": 0.05
+ },
+ "xaxis": {
+ "automargin": true,
+ "gridcolor": "white",
+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": "",
+ "title": {
+ "standoff": 15
+ },
+ "zerolinecolor": "white",
+ "zerolinewidth": 2
+ },
+ "yaxis": {
+ "automargin": true,
+ "gridcolor": "white",
+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": "",
+ "title": {
+ "standoff": 15
+ },
+ "zerolinecolor": "white",
+ "zerolinewidth": 2
+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026"
+ },
+ "xaxis": {
+ "dtick": 1,
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Income Decile"
+ }
+ },
+ "yaxis": {
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Average change in household net income ($)"
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1818,11 +2733,11 @@
" xaxis_title=\"Income Decile\",\n",
" yaxis_title=\"Average change in household net income ($)\",\n",
" showlegend=False,\n",
- " fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1),\n",
" )\n",
")\n",
"fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_color=\"black\")\n",
- "fig.show()\n"
+ "fig.show()\n",
+ "fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1) # show 1-10 instead of only the evens\n"
]
}
],
diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
index e819b47..07f78cf 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
@@ -2,18 +2,9 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 1,
+ "execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
- " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -25,7 +16,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 2,
+ "execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -61,7 +52,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 3,
+ "execution_count": 22,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -158,7 +149,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 4,
+ "execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -237,7 +228,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 5,
+ "execution_count": 24,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -259,7 +250,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 25,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -322,7 +313,7 @@
"2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172"
]
},
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 25,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -394,7 +385,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -431,7 +422,7 @@
" 0 | \n",
" 154 % FPL ($41,041) | \n",
" 41041 | \n",
- " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 16480.696289 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
@@ -440,16 +431,25 @@
" 1 | \n",
" 200 % FPL ($53,300) | \n",
" 53300 | \n",
- " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 12930.671875 | \n",
" 829.929932 | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
" 2 | \n",
+ " 300 % FPL ($79,950) | \n",
+ " 79950 | \n",
+ " 13847.603516 | \n",
+ " 16645.853516 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 829.929932 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 3 | \n",
" 405 % FPL ($107,933) | \n",
" 107933 | \n",
- " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
" 12268.548828 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 829.929932 | \n",
@@ -460,17 +460,19 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" income_label income_usd ptc_baseline ptc_ira_reform \\\n",
- "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.0 0.000000 \n",
- "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.0 0.000000 \n",
- "2 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.0 12268.548828 \n",
+ "0 154 % FPL ($41,041) 41041 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
+ "1 200 % FPL ($53,300) 53300 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
+ "2 300 % FPL ($79,950) 79950 13847.603516 16645.853516 \n",
+ "3 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.000000 12268.548828 \n",
"\n",
" medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n",
"0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n",
"1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n",
- "2 0.000000 829.929932 "
+ "2 0.000000 829.929932 \n",
+ "3 0.000000 829.929932 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -561,22 +563,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 16,
+ "execution_count": null,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stdout",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "['you', 'your partner', 'your first dependent']\n"
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 7,
+ "execution_count": 27,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -621,7 +615,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 8,
+ "execution_count": 28,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -633,7 +627,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 9,
+ "execution_count": 29,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -28386,7 +28380,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 10,
+ "execution_count": 30,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -32540,7 +32534,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 11,
+ "execution_count": 31,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -36691,7 +36685,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 12,
+ "execution_count": 32,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -40860,7 +40854,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 13,
+ "execution_count": 33,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
From 01abb8db21852408bde157f24867c035602bec27 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2025 16:22:57 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 11/15] work req
---
us/nyt/work_req.ipynb | 353 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 file changed, 353 insertions(+)
create mode 100644 us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
diff --git a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..efbe0f3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,353 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 1,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
+ "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {
+ "vscode": {
+ "languageId": "javascript"
+ }
+ },
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.reconciliation.medicaid_work_requirement.senate.in_effect\": {\n",
+ " \"2027-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " },\n",
+ "}, country_id=\"us\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 3,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "year = 2029\n",
+ "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "immigration_status = baseline.calculate(\"immigration_status\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
+ "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
+ "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 19,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "112.61243085941472"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_baseline.sum()/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 22,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "0.0"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 22,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_reform.sum()/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 24,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
+ "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "823.2432315324515"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_cost_baseline.sum()/1e9"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 26,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "0.0"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 26,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "medicaid_cost_reform.sum()/1e9"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 17,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Married | \n",
+ " employment_income | \n",
+ " Num_Dependents | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
+ " medicaid_baseline | \n",
+ " medicaid_reform | \n",
+ " immigration_status | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " 4 | \n",
+ " 36.0 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 41408.097656 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 41408.097656 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " CITIZEN | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 6 | \n",
+ " 44.0 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 78030.335938 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 78030.335938 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " CITIZEN | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 68.0 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " CITIZEN | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 9 | \n",
+ " 78.0 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 84532.859375 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 84532.859375 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " False | \n",
+ " CITIZEN | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 11 | \n",
+ " 85.0 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " True | \n",
+ " CITIZEN | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " household_id State Married employment_income Num_Dependents \\\n",
+ "4 36.0 ME 0.0 41408.097656 0.0 \n",
+ "6 44.0 ME 0.0 78030.335938 1.0 \n",
+ "7 68.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n",
+ "9 78.0 ME 0.0 84532.859375 0.0 \n",
+ "11 85.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income medicaid_baseline \\\n",
+ "4 41408.097656 0.0 True \n",
+ "6 78030.335938 0.0 True \n",
+ "7 0.000000 0.0 True \n",
+ "9 84532.859375 0.0 True \n",
+ "11 0.000000 0.0 True \n",
+ "\n",
+ " medicaid_reform immigration_status \n",
+ "4 True CITIZEN \n",
+ "6 True CITIZEN \n",
+ "7 True CITIZEN \n",
+ "9 False CITIZEN \n",
+ "11 True CITIZEN "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 17,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "data = {\n",
+ " \"household_id\": household_id,\n",
+ " \"State\": state,\n",
+ " \"Married\": married,\n",
+ " \"employment_income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n",
+ " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n",
+ " \"medicaid_baseline\": medicaid_baseline,\n",
+ " \"medicaid_reform\": medicaid_reform,\n",
+ " \"immigration_status\":immigration_status,\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
+ "df_outputs.head()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Filter rows where Medicaid is True in the baseline scenario\n",
+ "# (works if the column is already Boolean)\n",
+ "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"]]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── If the column holds the strings \"true\"/\"false\" instead ──\n",
+ "# df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].str.lower() == \"true\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_medicaid.head()\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.10.16"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}
From 854572b598b875135bba1a8d2bcaebf0156e07f8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2025 12:33:26 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 12/15] snap
---
.DS_Store | Bin 6148 -> 6148 bytes
us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 329 ++++++++++++------------
us/nyt/work_req.ipynb | 456 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------
us/snap_twitter.ipynb | 418 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4 files changed, 944 insertions(+), 259 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 us/snap_twitter.ipynb
diff --git a/.DS_Store b/.DS_Store
index 123a5b1a29712e6b55737a05ef366cc06c2e89ca..0e5be69a9c2605a2b4c918373261a25493b47908 100644
GIT binary patch
delta 20
bcmZoMXffC@m66@lP)EVY*mCn6#tbn4K_Ugz
delta 20
bcmZoMXffC@m66@ZNJqiQ%wqE##tbn4K^O(p
diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
index 7a13d5c..a891c1d 100644
--- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
+++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
@@ -2,9 +2,18 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 63,
+ "execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -15,7 +24,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 64,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -51,7 +60,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 65,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -63,16 +72,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 66,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "40.35911041608722"
+ "34.53192460674349"
]
},
- "execution_count": 66,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -84,16 +93,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 67,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "227.28695912942868"
+ "227.4910256143858"
]
},
- "execution_count": 67,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -105,14 +114,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 68,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "184,751,527 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "179,554,288 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -140,14 +149,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 69,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "23,752,636 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "25,364,518 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -174,14 +183,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 70,
+ "execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "18,379,449 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "18,865,437 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -216,7 +225,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 71,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -234,7 +243,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 72,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -275,10 +284,10 @@
" PA | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
" 3.0 | \n",
- " 94992.562805 | \n",
- " 91.854012 | \n",
+ " 122669.62796 | \n",
+ " 644.808105 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 39058.191406 | \n",
+ " 38655.492188 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
@@ -286,13 +295,13 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
- "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 94992.562805 \n",
+ "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 122669.62796 \n",
"\n",
" Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n",
- "23890 91.854012 0.0 39058.191406 "
+ "23890 644.808105 0.0 38655.492188 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 72,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -316,7 +325,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 73,
+ "execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -356,101 +365,101 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 15170 | \n",
- " 63406 | \n",
- " TX | \n",
- " 28846.123047 | \n",
- " 20097.220703 | \n",
- " 5.797269e+08 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
" 11774 | \n",
" 47863 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 43584.601562 | \n",
+ " 135658.906250 | \n",
" 17123.369141 | \n",
- " 7.463152e+08 | \n",
+ " 2.322938e+09 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 14377 | \n",
" 60850 | \n",
" TX | \n",
- " 46835.007812 | \n",
+ " 23338.992188 | \n",
" 15904.038086 | \n",
- " 7.448657e+08 | \n",
+ " 3.711842e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 14628 | \n",
" 61712 | \n",
" TX | \n",
- " 33571.246094 | \n",
+ " 22272.599609 | \n",
" 14010.416992 | \n",
- " 4.703472e+08 | \n",
+ " 3.120484e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 6960 | \n",
" 25327 | \n",
" MO | \n",
- " 12508.783203 | \n",
+ " 11227.063477 | \n",
" 13525.498047 | \n",
- " 1.691875e+08 | \n",
+ " 1.518516e+08 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 31780 | \n",
+ " 135336 | \n",
+ " FL | \n",
+ " 103136.664062 | \n",
+ " 12612.913086 | \n",
+ " 1.300854e+09 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 8987 | \n",
" 38686 | \n",
" NC | \n",
- " 15900.470703 | \n",
+ " 25387.832031 | \n",
" 12249.720703 | \n",
- " 1.947763e+08 | \n",
+ " 3.109939e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 31780 | \n",
- " 135336 | \n",
+ " 8576 | \n",
+ " 36002 | \n",
+ " VA | \n",
+ " 17410.156250 | \n",
+ " 10854.941406 | \n",
+ " 1.889862e+08 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 10747 | \n",
+ " 44495 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 95542.593750 | \n",
- " 12184.659180 | \n",
- " 1.164154e+09 | \n",
+ " 56612.566406 | \n",
+ " 10672.198242 | \n",
+ " 6.041805e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 19620 | \n",
" 83988 | \n",
" CA | \n",
- " 12765.500000 | \n",
+ " 18989.419922 | \n",
" 10092.767578 | \n",
- " 1.288392e+08 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 36863 | \n",
- " 159723 | \n",
- " CO | \n",
- " 16615.960938 | \n",
- " 7437.457031 | \n",
- " 1.235805e+08 | \n",
+ " 1.916558e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 4013 | \n",
" 16074 | \n",
" OH | \n",
- " 16507.593750 | \n",
+ " 46166.144531 | \n",
" 6990.998047 | \n",
- " 1.154046e+08 | \n",
+ " 3.227474e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "15170 63406 TX 28846.123047 20097.220703 5.797269e+08\n",
- "11774 47863 FL 43584.601562 17123.369141 7.463152e+08\n",
- "14377 60850 TX 46835.007812 15904.038086 7.448657e+08\n",
- "14628 61712 TX 33571.246094 14010.416992 4.703472e+08\n",
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- "8987 38686 NC 15900.470703 12249.720703 1.947763e+08\n",
- "31780 135336 FL 95542.593750 12184.659180 1.164154e+09\n",
- "19620 83988 CA 12765.500000 10092.767578 1.288392e+08\n",
- "36863 159723 CO 16615.960938 7437.457031 1.235805e+08\n",
- "4013 16074 OH 16507.593750 6990.998047 1.154046e+08"
+ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
+ "11774 47863 FL 135658.906250 17123.369141 2.322938e+09\n",
+ "14377 60850 TX 23338.992188 15904.038086 3.711842e+08\n",
+ "14628 61712 TX 22272.599609 14010.416992 3.120484e+08\n",
+ "6960 25327 MO 11227.063477 13525.498047 1.518516e+08\n",
+ "31780 135336 FL 103136.664062 12612.913086 1.300854e+09\n",
+ "8987 38686 NC 25387.832031 12249.720703 3.109939e+08\n",
+ "8576 36002 VA 17410.156250 10854.941406 1.889862e+08\n",
+ "10747 44495 FL 56612.566406 10672.198242 6.041805e+08\n",
+ "19620 83988 CA 18989.419922 10092.767578 1.916558e+08\n",
+ "4013 16074 OH 46166.144531 6990.998047 3.227474e+08"
]
},
"metadata": {},
@@ -494,34 +503,34 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 15 | \n",
- " 99 | \n",
+ " 7 | \n",
+ " 68 | \n",
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+ " 18114.335938 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 24 | \n",
- " 188 | \n",
+ " 21 | \n",
+ " 134 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 14602.563477 | \n",
+ " 10089.783203 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 27 | \n",
- " 206 | \n",
+ " 25 | \n",
+ " 194 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 13875.028320 | \n",
+ " 15542.672852 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 30 | \n",
- " 261 | \n",
+ " 27 | \n",
+ " 206 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 25312.886719 | \n",
+ " 19284.667969 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
@@ -529,47 +538,47 @@
" 31 | \n",
" 275 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 19168.126953 | \n",
+ " 11475.574219 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 32 | \n",
- " 284 | \n",
+ " 37 | \n",
+ " 324 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 30920.968750 | \n",
+ " 16666.904297 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 35 | \n",
- " 315 | \n",
+ " 41 | \n",
+ " 339 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 13098.019531 | \n",
+ " 16523.361328 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 41 | \n",
- " 339 | \n",
+ " 43 | \n",
+ " 354 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 18794.173828 | \n",
+ " 11761.126953 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 44 | \n",
- " 356 | \n",
+ " 51 | \n",
+ " 425 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 36464.535156 | \n",
+ " 15638.842773 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 47 | \n",
- " 380 | \n",
+ " 53 | \n",
+ " 437 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 43613.914062 | \n",
+ " 10633.168945 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
@@ -579,16 +588,16 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "15 99 ME 12122.632812 0.0 0.0\n",
- "24 188 ME 14602.563477 0.0 0.0\n",
- "27 206 ME 13875.028320 0.0 0.0\n",
- "30 261 ME 25312.886719 0.0 0.0\n",
- "31 275 ME 19168.126953 0.0 0.0\n",
- "32 284 ME 30920.968750 0.0 0.0\n",
- "35 315 ME 13098.019531 0.0 0.0\n",
- "41 339 ME 18794.173828 0.0 0.0\n",
- "44 356 ME 36464.535156 0.0 0.0\n",
- "47 380 ME 43613.914062 0.0 0.0"
+ "7 68 ME 18114.335938 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "21 134 ME 10089.783203 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "25 194 ME 15542.672852 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "27 206 ME 19284.667969 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "31 275 ME 11475.574219 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "37 324 ME 16666.904297 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "41 339 ME 16523.361328 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "43 354 ME 11761.126953 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "51 425 ME 15638.842773 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "53 437 ME 10633.168945 0.0 0.0"
]
},
"metadata": {},
@@ -634,7 +643,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 74,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -680,7 +689,7 @@
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 10092.767578 | \n",
- " 12765.5 | \n",
+ " 18989.419922 | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
"\n",
@@ -690,11 +699,11 @@
" household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
"19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n",
"\n",
- " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
- "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 12765.5 "
+ " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
+ "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 18989.419922 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 74,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -705,14 +714,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 75,
+ "execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,264.49\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,442.32\n"
]
}
],
@@ -735,14 +744,14 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 76,
+ "execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,654.84\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,663.64\n"
]
}
],
@@ -772,16 +781,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 92,
+ "execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "30.206960672172997"
+ "32.12809192838201"
]
},
- "execution_count": 92,
+ "execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -811,7 +820,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 104,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -837,16 +846,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$102",
+ "$127",
"$141",
- "$148",
- "$156",
- "$191",
- "$464",
- "$233",
- "$281",
- "$161",
- "$108"
+ "$120",
+ "$164",
+ "$206",
+ "$256",
+ "$214",
+ "$668",
+ "$185",
+ "$83"
],
"textposition": "inside",
"type": "bar",
@@ -863,16 +872,16 @@
10
],
"y": [
- 102.4264144897461,
- 140.80027770996094,
- 147.8699188232422,
- 156.31858825683594,
- 191.30772399902344,
- 463.7459716796875,
- 232.62808227539062,
- 280.5216979980469,
- 161.26075744628906,
- 107.7364501953125
+ 127.10087585449219,
+ 140.969970703125,
+ 119.75225067138672,
+ 163.75502014160156,
+ 205.8011016845703,
+ 255.56259155273438,
+ 213.85777282714844,
+ 667.6323852539062,
+ 184.54965209960938,
+ 83.39998626708984
]
}
],
@@ -1751,16 +1760,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$102",
+ "$127",
"$141",
- "$148",
- "$156",
- "$191",
- "$464",
- "$233",
- "$281",
- "$161",
- "$108"
+ "$120",
+ "$164",
+ "$206",
+ "$256",
+ "$214",
+ "$668",
+ "$185",
+ "$83"
],
"textposition": "inside",
"type": "bar",
@@ -1777,16 +1786,16 @@
10
],
"y": [
- 102.4264144897461,
- 140.80027770996094,
- 147.8699188232422,
- 156.31858825683594,
- 191.30772399902344,
- 463.7459716796875,
- 232.62808227539062,
- 280.5216979980469,
- 161.26075744628906,
- 107.7364501953125
+ 127.10087585449219,
+ 140.969970703125,
+ 119.75225067138672,
+ 163.75502014160156,
+ 205.8011016845703,
+ 255.56259155273438,
+ 213.85777282714844,
+ 667.6323852539062,
+ 184.54965209960938,
+ 83.39998626708984
]
}
],
diff --git a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
index efbe0f3..1b6715d 100644
--- a/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
+++ b/us/nyt/work_req.ipynb
@@ -39,6 +39,17 @@
"}, country_id=\"us\")\n"
]
},
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {
+ "vscode": {
+ "languageId": "javascript"
+ }
+ },
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": []
+ },
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
@@ -50,42 +61,44 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
- "year = 2029\n",
+ "year = 2028\n",
+ "age = baseline.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
"state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
"num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
"married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
- "immigration_status = baseline.calculate(\"immigration_status\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
"employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
"self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
- "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
- "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
+ "medicaid_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "disability = baseline.calculate(\"is_disabled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "net_income = baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 19,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
- "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)"
+ "medicaid_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_enrolled\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 23,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "112.61243085941472"
+ "88.03708112231564"
]
},
- "execution_count": 23,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -96,16 +109,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 22,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "0.0"
+ "66.17075737452024"
]
},
- "execution_count": 22,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -116,26 +129,26 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 24,
+ "execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
- "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)\n",
- "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"person\", period=year)"
+ "medicaid_cost_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "medicaid_cost_reform = reformed.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 25,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "823.2432315324515"
+ "754.2560939202893"
]
},
- "execution_count": 25,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -146,16 +159,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 26,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "0.0"
+ "583.9976766367972"
]
},
- "execution_count": 26,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -191,108 +204,165 @@
" \n",
" | \n",
" household_id | \n",
+ " age | \n",
" State | \n",
" Married | \n",
- " employment_income | \n",
" Num_Dependents | \n",
- " Employment_Income | \n",
- " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
+ " net_income | \n",
" medicaid_baseline | \n",
" medicaid_reform | \n",
- " immigration_status | \n",
+ " disability | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 4 | \n",
- " 36.0 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
+ " 25763 | \n",
+ " 108937 | \n",
+ " 58.0 | \n",
+ " IL | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 76981.750000 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 15052 | \n",
+ " 63037 | \n",
+ " 60.0 | \n",
+ " TX | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
+ " 66695.476562 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 41408.097656 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 41408.097656 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " CITIZEN | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 6 | \n",
- " 44.0 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
+ " 23671 | \n",
+ " 102468 | \n",
+ " 138.0 | \n",
+ " PA | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 36383.925781 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 78030.335938 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 29397 | \n",
+ " 125991 | \n",
+ " 127.0 | \n",
+ " VA | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 85631.062500 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 35968 | \n",
+ " 153372 | \n",
+ " 133.0 | \n",
+ " TX | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
- " 78030.335938 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 55173.074219 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " CITIZEN | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 7 | \n",
- " 68.0 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
+ " 177 | \n",
+ " 1452 | \n",
+ " 168.0 | \n",
+ " NH | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 277564.562500 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 0.000000 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 0.000000 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " CITIZEN | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 9 | \n",
- " 78.0 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
+ " 40669 | \n",
+ " 174681 | \n",
+ " 145.0 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 108951.515625 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 84532.859375 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 84532.859375 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " False | \n",
- " CITIZEN | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 11 | \n",
- " 85.0 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
+ " 6118 | \n",
+ " 22615 | \n",
+ " 21.0 | \n",
+ " WI | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 60602.281250 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 0.000000 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 39910 | \n",
+ " 172254 | \n",
+ " 85.0 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " True | \n",
- " CITIZEN | \n",
+ " 72438.218750 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 3931 | \n",
+ " 15787 | \n",
+ " 145.0 | \n",
+ " OH | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 116171.570312 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State Married employment_income Num_Dependents \\\n",
- "4 36.0 ME 0.0 41408.097656 0.0 \n",
- "6 44.0 ME 0.0 78030.335938 1.0 \n",
- "7 68.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n",
- "9 78.0 ME 0.0 84532.859375 0.0 \n",
- "11 85.0 ME 0.0 0.000000 0.0 \n",
+ " household_id age State Married Num_Dependents net_income \\\n",
+ "25763 108937 58.0 IL 0.0 0.0 76981.750000 \n",
+ "15052 63037 60.0 TX 1.0 3.0 66695.476562 \n",
+ "23671 102468 138.0 PA 0.0 0.0 36383.925781 \n",
+ "29397 125991 127.0 VA 1.0 2.0 85631.062500 \n",
+ "35968 153372 133.0 TX 1.0 1.0 55173.074219 \n",
+ "177 1452 168.0 NH 1.0 0.0 277564.562500 \n",
+ "40669 174681 145.0 CA 1.0 0.0 108951.515625 \n",
+ "6118 22615 21.0 WI 0.0 0.0 60602.281250 \n",
+ "39910 172254 85.0 CA 0.0 0.0 72438.218750 \n",
+ "3931 15787 145.0 OH 1.0 2.0 116171.570312 \n",
"\n",
- " Employment_Income Self_Employment_Income medicaid_baseline \\\n",
- "4 41408.097656 0.0 True \n",
- "6 78030.335938 0.0 True \n",
- "7 0.000000 0.0 True \n",
- "9 84532.859375 0.0 True \n",
- "11 0.000000 0.0 True \n",
- "\n",
- " medicaid_reform immigration_status \n",
- "4 True CITIZEN \n",
- "6 True CITIZEN \n",
- "7 True CITIZEN \n",
- "9 False CITIZEN \n",
- "11 True CITIZEN "
+ " medicaid_baseline medicaid_reform disability \n",
+ "25763 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "15052 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
+ "23671 3.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
+ "29397 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
+ "35968 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "177 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
+ "40669 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
+ "6118 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "39910 1.0 1.0 1.0 \n",
+ "3931 1.0 1.0 2.0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 17,
@@ -303,30 +373,218 @@
"source": [
"data = {\n",
" \"household_id\": household_id,\n",
+ " \"age\": age,\n",
" \"State\": state,\n",
" \"Married\": married,\n",
- " \"employment_income\": employment_income,\n",
" \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n",
- " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n",
+ " \"net_income\": net_income,\n",
" \"medicaid_baseline\": medicaid_baseline,\n",
" \"medicaid_reform\": medicaid_reform,\n",
- " \"immigration_status\":immigration_status,\n",
+ " \"disability\": disability,\n",
"}\n",
"\n",
"df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
- "df_outputs.head()\n",
- "\n",
- "# Filter rows where Medicaid is True in the baseline scenario\n",
- "# (works if the column is already Boolean)\n",
- "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"]]\n",
- "\n",
- "# ── If the column holds the strings \"true\"/\"false\" instead ──\n",
- "# df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].str.lower() == \"true\"]\n",
- "\n",
- "df_medicaid.head()\n",
+ "df_outputs.sample(n=10) \n",
"\n"
]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
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+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " age | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Married | \n",
+ " Num_Dependents | \n",
+ " net_income | \n",
+ " medicaid_baseline | \n",
+ " medicaid_reform | \n",
+ " disability | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
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\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 34089 | \n",
+ " 145258 | \n",
+ " 123.0 | \n",
+ " AR | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 52366.300781 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 21260 | \n",
+ " 93908 | \n",
+ " 60.0 | \n",
+ " MA | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 12498.601562 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 39141 | \n",
+ " 169644 | \n",
+ " 31.0 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 20294.919922 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 5781 | \n",
+ " 21507 | \n",
+ " 87.0 | \n",
+ " MI | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 126903.640625 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 25970 | \n",
+ " 109575 | \n",
+ " 151.0 | \n",
+ " IL | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 77474.335938 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 35709 | \n",
+ " 152511 | \n",
+ " 145.0 | \n",
+ " TX | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
+ " 54013.031250 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 21664 | \n",
+ " 96019 | \n",
+ " 147.0 | \n",
+ " CT | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 105085.656250 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 25351 | \n",
+ " 107589 | \n",
+ " 52.0 | \n",
+ " IL | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 2.0 | \n",
+ " 24615.585938 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
+ " 3.0 | \n",
+ " 1.0 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " household_id age State Married Num_Dependents net_income \\\n",
+ "39714 171625 190.0 CA 1.0 0.0 266112.437500 \n",
+ "25746 108895 162.0 IL 1.0 1.0 113722.921875 \n",
+ "34089 145258 123.0 AR 1.0 0.0 52366.300781 \n",
+ "21260 93908 60.0 MA 0.0 0.0 12498.601562 \n",
+ "39141 169644 31.0 CA 0.0 1.0 20294.919922 \n",
+ "5781 21507 87.0 MI 0.0 1.0 126903.640625 \n",
+ "25970 109575 151.0 IL 1.0 1.0 77474.335938 \n",
+ "35709 152511 145.0 TX 1.0 3.0 54013.031250 \n",
+ "21664 96019 147.0 CT 0.0 0.0 105085.656250 \n",
+ "25351 107589 52.0 IL 0.0 2.0 24615.585938 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " medicaid_baseline medicaid_reform disability \n",
+ "39714 2.0 1.0 2.0 \n",
+ "25746 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "34089 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "21260 2.0 1.0 0.0 \n",
+ "39141 2.0 2.0 0.0 \n",
+ "5781 1.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
+ "25970 2.0 1.0 0.0 \n",
+ "35709 2.0 2.0 0.0 \n",
+ "21664 1.0 1.0 0.0 \n",
+ "25351 3.0 3.0 1.0 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "df_medicaid = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"medicaid_baseline\"].gt(0)]\n",
+ "df_medicaid.sample(n=10) \n"
+ ]
}
],
"metadata": {
diff --git a/us/snap_twitter.ipynb b/us/snap_twitter.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..cef92ea
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/snap_twitter.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,418 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
+ "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "year =2024\n",
+ "\n",
+ "household_size = baseline.calculate(\"household_size\", map_to= \"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", map_to= \"household\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 3,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "data = {\n",
+ " \"household_size\": household_size,\n",
+ " \"snap\": snap,\n",
+ "}"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 11,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Households getting maximum snap: 51343.10517691474\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Single month keeps it simple\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "mask = (unit_size == 4) & np.isclose(snap, 973, atol=1)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Households getting maximum snap: \", float((mask * weights).sum()))\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 9,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "2.11511349654758"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 9,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Single month keeps it simple\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n",
+ "\n",
+ "(unit_size == 4)[snap >= 1].sum()\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 7,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "1455.7"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 7,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "snap[unit_size == 4].max()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "0.000000 4561\n",
+ "973.000000 184\n",
+ "95.000000 3\n",
+ "363.399963 2\n",
+ "705.400024 2\n",
+ "548.199951 2\n",
+ "744.700012 2\n",
+ "790.299988 2\n",
+ "573.400024 2\n",
+ "488.499969 2\n",
+ "Name: count, dtype: int64"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "pd.Series(snap[unit_size == 4]).value_counts().head(10)\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 9,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "4 Person Households that get Maximum SNAP Allotment : 2271.6703824460506\n",
+ "Median SNAP for Family of 4: $704\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import microdf as mdf\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Single month keeps it simple\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "mask = (unit_size == 4) & np.isclose(snap, 750, atol=1)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"4 Person Households that get Maximum SNAP Allotment : \", float((mask * weights).sum()))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n",
+ "mask = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n",
+ "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n",
+ "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n",
+ "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 4: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 7,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Median SNAP for Family of 2: $270\n",
+ "Median SNAP for Family of 1: $114\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n",
+ "mask = (unit_size == 2) & (snap > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n",
+ "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n",
+ "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n",
+ "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 2: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\" # keep benefits in monthly dollars\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period)\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period)\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Keep 4-person units that actually get SNAP (> $0) ──\n",
+ "mask = (unit_size == 1) & (snap > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Tiny 2-column frame for microdf\n",
+ "df = pd.DataFrame({\"benefit\": snap[mask], \"wt\": weights[mask]})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Unweighted and weighted medians\n",
+ "median_unwtd = float(df[\"benefit\"].median())\n",
+ "median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Median SNAP for Family of 1: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 8,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Unweighted households: 583\n",
+ "Weighted households: 2,264,703\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Count 4-person HOUSEHOLDS that receive any SNAP during 2024\n",
+ "period = 2024 # annual → sums the 12 monthly amounts\n",
+ "\n",
+ "hh_size = baseline.calculate(\"household_size\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n",
+ "snap_yr = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=period)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "mask = (hh_size == 4) & (snap_yr > 0) # any positive amount ⇒ got SNAP\n",
+ "\n",
+ "n_unwtd = int(mask.sum()) # simple count of CPS households\n",
+ "n_wtd = float((mask * weights).sum()) # population-weighted total\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Unweighted households: {n_unwtd:,}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted households: {n_wtd:,.0f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 10,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "4 Person Households that get above $965 in SNAP: 51343.36664519112\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Statistics for 4-person households getting > $965 SNAP:\n",
+ " Weighted median: $973\n",
+ " Weighted mean: $973\n",
+ " Min benefit: $973\n",
+ " Max benefit: $1,456\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Of all 4-person households getting SNAP:\n",
+ " Total households: 175,704\n",
+ " Getting > $965: 51,343 (29.2%)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Benefit distribution for 4-person households:\n",
+ " >= $ 500: 127,950 ( 72.8%)\n",
+ " >= $ 750: 79,433 ( 45.2%)\n",
+ " >= $ 965: 51,343 ( 29.2%)\n",
+ " >= $1000: 0 ( 0.0%)\n",
+ " >= $1200: 0 ( 0.0%)\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import microdf as mdf\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Single month keeps it simple\n",
+ "period = \"2024-01\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Pull variables at the SPM-unit level ──\n",
+ "snap = baseline.calculate(\"snap\", period=period) # SPM-unit level\n",
+ "unit_size = baseline.calculate(\"spm_unit_size\", period=period) # size of that SPM unit\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"spm_unit\", period=period) # population weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Analysis 1: Count of 4-person households getting above $965 ──\n",
+ "mask_above_965 = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 965)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"4 Person Households that get above $965 in SNAP: \", float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()))\n",
+ "print()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Analysis 2: Distribution statistics for these households ──\n",
+ "# Create dataframe for households above $965\n",
+ "df_above_965 = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"benefit\": snap[mask_above_965], \n",
+ " \"wt\": weights[mask_above_965]\n",
+ "})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "if len(df_above_965) > 0:\n",
+ " # Calculate statistics\n",
+ " median_wtd = float(mdf.weighted_median(df_above_965, \"benefit\", \"wt\"))\n",
+ " mean_wtd = float((df_above_965[\"benefit\"] * df_above_965[\"wt\"]).sum() / df_above_965[\"wt\"].sum())\n",
+ " \n",
+ " # Min and max benefits\n",
+ " min_benefit = float(df_above_965[\"benefit\"].min())\n",
+ " max_benefit = float(df_above_965[\"benefit\"].max())\n",
+ " \n",
+ " print(f\"Statistics for 4-person households getting > $965 SNAP:\")\n",
+ " print(f\" Weighted median: ${median_wtd:,.0f}\")\n",
+ " print(f\" Weighted mean: ${mean_wtd:,.0f}\")\n",
+ " print(f\" Min benefit: ${min_benefit:,.0f}\")\n",
+ " print(f\" Max benefit: ${max_benefit:,.0f}\")\n",
+ " print()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Analysis 3: Compare to all 4-person households getting SNAP ──\n",
+ "mask_all_snap = (unit_size == 4) & (snap > 0)\n",
+ "df_all_snap = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"benefit\": snap[mask_all_snap], \n",
+ " \"wt\": weights[mask_all_snap]\n",
+ "})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate what percentage get above $965\n",
+ "total_4person_snap = float((mask_all_snap * weights).sum())\n",
+ "pct_above_965 = (float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()) / total_4person_snap * 100) if total_4person_snap > 0 else 0\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Of all 4-person households getting SNAP:\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Total households: {total_4person_snap:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Getting > $965: {float((mask_above_965 * weights).sum()):,.0f} ({pct_above_965:.1f}%)\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Analysis 4: Look at specific benefit thresholds ──\n",
+ "print(\"\\nBenefit distribution for 4-person households:\")\n",
+ "thresholds = [500, 750, 965, 1000, 1200]\n",
+ "for threshold in thresholds:\n",
+ " mask_threshold = (unit_size == 4) & (snap >= threshold)\n",
+ " count = float((mask_threshold * weights).sum())\n",
+ " pct = (count / total_4person_snap * 100) if total_4person_snap > 0 else 0\n",
+ " print(f\" >= ${threshold:4d}: {count:10,.0f} ({pct:5.1f}%)\")"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.10.16"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}
From 621edb84fac26f1ae3a1bb0ac0d7977a9e4684cc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:02:08 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 13/15] charts
---
us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb | 1632 ++++++++++++++-----------
1 file changed, 936 insertions(+), 696 deletions(-)
diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
index 07f78cf..b8a630a 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
@@ -2,9 +2,18 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 20,
+ "execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -16,7 +25,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 21,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -52,7 +61,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 22,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -149,7 +158,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 23,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -228,7 +237,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 24,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -250,7 +259,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 25,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -313,7 +322,7 @@
"2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172"
]
},
- "execution_count": 25,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -385,7 +394,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 26,
+ "execution_count": 30,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -415,6 +424,7 @@
" ptc_ira_reform | \n",
" medicaid_cost | \n",
" per_capita_chip | \n",
+ " SLCSP | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
@@ -426,6 +436,7 @@
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 16480.696289 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
" 1 | \n",
@@ -435,6 +446,7 @@
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 12930.671875 | \n",
" 829.929932 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 2 | \n",
@@ -444,6 +456,7 @@
" 16645.853516 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 829.929932 | \n",
+ " 21442.853516 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 3 | \n",
@@ -453,6 +466,7 @@
" 12268.548828 | \n",
" 0.000000 | \n",
" 829.929932 | \n",
+ " 0.000000 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
@@ -465,14 +479,14 @@
"2 300 % FPL ($79,950) 79950 13847.603516 16645.853516 \n",
"3 405 % FPL ($107,933) 107933 0.000000 12268.548828 \n",
"\n",
- " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip \n",
- "0 16480.696289 0.000000 \n",
- "1 12930.671875 829.929932 \n",
- "2 0.000000 829.929932 \n",
- "3 0.000000 829.929932 "
+ " medicaid_cost per_capita_chip SLCSP \n",
+ "0 16480.696289 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
+ "1 12930.671875 829.929932 0.000000 \n",
+ "2 0.000000 829.929932 21442.853516 \n",
+ "3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 26,
+ "execution_count": 30,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -523,9 +537,10 @@
" # ACA PTC\n",
" ptc_base = sim_base.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
" ptc_reform = sim_reform.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ " SLCSP = sim_base.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
"\n",
" # Medicaid benefit (adult or child)\n",
- " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
+ " medicaid_cost = sim_base.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)[0]\n",
"\n",
" # CHIP benefit – variable names differ by PE-US version:\n",
" # * If your build has `chip_cost`, use that.\n",
@@ -538,6 +553,7 @@
" ptc_ira_reform = ptc_reform,\n",
" medicaid_cost = medicaid_cost,\n",
" per_capita_chip = per_capita_chip,\n",
+ " SLCSP = SLCSP\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
"# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
@@ -570,20 +586,238 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 27,
+ "execution_count": 28,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
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+ },
+ {
+ "ename": "AttributeError",
+ "evalue": "'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'",
+ "output_type": "error",
+ "traceback": [
+ "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
+ "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
+ "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[28], line 7\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold_net_income_including_health_benefits\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_slcsp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mslcsp\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m----> 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_new_york_slcsp\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmedian\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 9\u001b[0m reform_new_york_per_capita_chip \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mper_capita_chip\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 10\u001b[0m reform_new_york_aca_ptc \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124maca_ptc\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n",
+ "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_new_york_aca_ptc = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "baseline_new_york_medicaid_cost = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "\n",
+ "baseline_new_york_slcsp = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"\n",
"reform_new_york_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"reform_new_york_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "reform_new_york_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "reform_new_york_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"\n",
"\n",
@@ -594,13 +828,13 @@
"household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_texas_per_capita_chip = simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_texas_aca_ptc = simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "baseline_texas_medicaid_cost = simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "baseline_texas_medicaid_cost = simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "\n",
+ "baseline_texas_slcsp = simulation_texas.calculate(\"slcsp\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"\n",
"reform_texas_per_capita_chip = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"reform_texas_aca_ptc = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
- "reform_texas_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_per_capita_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "reform_texas_medicaid_cost = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"medicaid_cost\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"reform_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"\n",
"\n",
@@ -615,7 +849,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 28,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -627,7 +861,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 29,
+ "execution_count": 31,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -28183,7 +28417,7 @@
"xaxis": {
"range": [
0,
- 400000
+ 200000
],
"tickformat": "$,.0f",
"title": {
@@ -28362,7 +28596,7 @@
" xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
" yaxis_title='Benefit Amount',\n",
" legend_title='Programs',\n",
- " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400000]),\n",
+ " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200000]),\n",
" yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n",
" height=600,\n",
" width=1000\n",
@@ -28380,7 +28614,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 30,
+ "execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
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}
],
@@ -40782,6 +41016,10 @@
}
},
"yaxis": {
+ "range": [
+ -1,
+ 1
+ ],
"tickformat": ".0%",
"title": {
"text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)"
@@ -40800,61 +41038,59 @@
" \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n",
+ "baseline_raw = simulation_new_york.calculate(\n",
" \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n",
" map_to=\"household\",\n",
" period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\n",
+ "reform_raw = reformed_simulation_new_york.calculate(\n",
" \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n",
" map_to=\"household\",\n",
" period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
+ "# ---------- Limit MRT values to ±100 % ----------\n",
+ "baseline_mtr = np.clip(baseline_raw, -1, 1) # -1 ↔ –100 %, 1 ↔ 100 %\n",
+ "reform_mtr = np.clip(reform_raw, -1, 1)\n",
+ "\n",
"# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr = go.Figure()\n",
"\n",
- "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_new_york,\n",
- " y=baseline_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n",
+ " y=baseline_mtr,\n",
" mode='lines',\n",
" name='Marginal Tax Rate (Baseline)',\n",
" line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n",
"))\n",
"\n",
- "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_new_york,\n",
- " y=reform_new_york_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n",
+ " y=reform_mtr,\n",
" mode='lines',\n",
" name='Marginal Tax Rate (Reform)',\n",
" line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
"))\n",
"\n",
- "# Layout\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr.update_layout(\n",
" title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n",
" xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
" yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n",
" legend_title='Scenario',\n",
" xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n",
- " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes MTR is in decimal form (e.g., 0.42 → 42%)\n",
+ " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%', range=[-1, 1]), # keep the same visual bounds\n",
" height=600,\n",
" width=1000\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "# Optional formatting helper if you use one elsewhere\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr = format_fig(fig_new_york_mtr)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Display\n",
"fig_new_york_mtr.show()\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 33,
+ "execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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0.7865976095199585,
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0.7865976095199585,
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0.7829999923706055,
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+ -1,
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0.7883983850479126,
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@@ -44951,6 +45187,10 @@
}
},
"yaxis": {
+ "range": [
+ -1,
+ 1
+ ],
"tickformat": ".0%",
"title": {
"text": "Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)"
@@ -44964,27 +45204,32 @@
}
],
"source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
"# ---------- Pull the inputs ----------\n",
"household_income_texas = simulation_texas.calculate(\n",
" \"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = simulation_texas.calculate(\n",
+ "baseline_raw = simulation_texas.calculate(\n",
" \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n",
" map_to=\"household\",\n",
" period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\n",
+ "reform_raw = reformed_simulation_texas.calculate(\n",
" \"marginal_tax_rate_including_health_benefits\",\n",
" map_to=\"household\",\n",
" period=2026\n",
")\n",
"\n",
+ "# ---------- Limit MRT values to ±100 % ----------\n",
+ "baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = np.clip(baseline_raw, -1, 1)\n",
+ "reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits = np.clip(reform_raw, -1, 1)\n",
+ "\n",
"# ---------- Build the graph ----------\n",
"fig_texas_mtr = go.Figure()\n",
"\n",
- "# Baseline trace (solid line)\n",
"fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_texas,\n",
" y=baseline_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n",
@@ -44993,7 +45238,6 @@
" line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n",
"))\n",
"\n",
- "# Reform trace (dotted line)\n",
"fig_texas_mtr.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_texas,\n",
" y=reform_texas_mtr_including_health_benefits,\n",
@@ -45002,22 +45246,18 @@
" line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
"))\n",
"\n",
- "# Layout\n",
"fig_texas_mtr.update_layout(\n",
" title='Texas Household (Couple) – Marginal Tax Rate Including Health Benefits by Household Income',\n",
" xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
" yaxis_title='Marginal Tax Rate (Including Health Benefits)',\n",
" legend_title='Scenario',\n",
" xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n",
- " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%'), # assumes rate is in decimal form (0.42 → 42 %)\n",
+ " yaxis=dict(tickformat='.0%', range=[-1, 1]), # stays consistent with the clipping\n",
" height=600,\n",
" width=1000\n",
")\n",
"\n",
- "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n",
"fig_texas_mtr = format_fig(fig_texas_mtr)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Display\n",
"fig_texas_mtr.show()\n"
]
}
From 7509a8c8bf33c595aa861cb7deb07d2e6dea5048 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2025 16:54:19 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 14/15] rename
---
us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 400 +-
...olds.ipynb => aca_reform_households.ipynb} | 7335 ++++++++++++++---
2 files changed, 6292 insertions(+), 1443 deletions(-)
rename us/medicaid/{medicaid_households.ipynb => aca_reform_households.ipynb} (90%)
diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
index a891c1d..68c5b94 100644
--- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
+++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "34.53192460674349"
+ "34.4898908313967"
]
},
"execution_count": 4,
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "227.4910256143858"
+ "228.37424343962823"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "179,554,288 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "191,573,928 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -156,7 +156,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "25,364,518 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "24,630,096 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -190,7 +190,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "18,865,437 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "20,074,006 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -272,33 +272,31 @@
" Married | \n",
" Num_Dependents | \n",
" Employment_Income | \n",
- " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
" aca_baseline | \n",
" aca_reform | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 23890 | \n",
- " 103176 | \n",
- " PA | \n",
+ " 600 | \n",
+ " 4428 | \n",
+ " MA | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
- " 3.0 | \n",
- " 122669.62796 | \n",
- " 644.808105 | \n",
+ " 4.0 | \n",
+ " 52859.65625 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 38655.492188 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
- "23890 103176 PA 1.0 3.0 122669.62796 \n",
+ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
+ "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
"\n",
- " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \n",
- "23890 644.808105 0.0 38655.492188 "
+ " aca_baseline aca_reform \n",
+ "600 0.0 0.0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 10,
@@ -314,13 +312,14 @@
" \"Married\": married,\n",
" \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n",
" \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Self_Employment_Income\": self_employment_income,\n",
" \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n",
" \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n",
- " }\n",
+ "\n",
+ " }\n",
+ "\n",
"\n",
"df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
- "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 103176]\n"
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n"
]
},
{
@@ -365,101 +364,101 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 11774 | \n",
- " 47863 | \n",
+ " 15170 | \n",
+ " 63406 | \n",
+ " TX | \n",
+ " 96633.976562 | \n",
+ " 20097.220703 | \n",
+ " 1.942074e+09 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 11278 | \n",
+ " 46357 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 135658.906250 | \n",
- " 17123.369141 | \n",
- " 2.322938e+09 | \n",
+ " 63879.199219 | \n",
+ " 15559.541992 | \n",
+ " 9.939311e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 14377 | \n",
- " 60850 | \n",
- " TX | \n",
- " 23338.992188 | \n",
- " 15904.038086 | \n",
- " 3.711842e+08 | \n",
+ " 30957 | \n",
+ " 132558 | \n",
+ " GA | \n",
+ " 34982.687500 | \n",
+ " 14077.200195 | \n",
+ " 4.924583e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
" 14628 | \n",
" 61712 | \n",
" TX | \n",
- " 22272.599609 | \n",
+ " 15532.655273 | \n",
" 14010.416992 | \n",
- " 3.120484e+08 | \n",
+ " 2.176190e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 6960 | \n",
- " 25327 | \n",
- " MO | \n",
- " 11227.063477 | \n",
- " 13525.498047 | \n",
- " 1.518516e+08 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 31780 | \n",
- " 135336 | \n",
+ " 11156 | \n",
+ " 46034 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 103136.664062 | \n",
- " 12612.913086 | \n",
- " 1.300854e+09 | \n",
+ " 30328.830078 | \n",
+ " 9943.345703 | \n",
+ " 3.015700e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 8987 | \n",
- " 38686 | \n",
- " NC | \n",
- " 25387.832031 | \n",
- " 12249.720703 | \n",
- " 3.109939e+08 | \n",
+ " 31402 | \n",
+ " 133962 | \n",
+ " FL | \n",
+ " 21518.343750 | \n",
+ " 9887.317383 | \n",
+ " 2.127587e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 8576 | \n",
- " 36002 | \n",
- " VA | \n",
- " 17410.156250 | \n",
- " 10854.941406 | \n",
- " 1.889862e+08 | \n",
+ " 4013 | \n",
+ " 16074 | \n",
+ " OH | \n",
+ " 11105.104492 | \n",
+ " 6990.998047 | \n",
+ " 7.763576e+07 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 10747 | \n",
- " 44495 | \n",
+ " 31632 | \n",
+ " 134802 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 56612.566406 | \n",
- " 10672.198242 | \n",
- " 6.041805e+08 | \n",
+ " 23929.857422 | \n",
+ " 5788.573242 | \n",
+ " 1.385197e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19620 | \n",
- " 83988 | \n",
- " CA | \n",
- " 18989.419922 | \n",
- " 10092.767578 | \n",
- " 1.916558e+08 | \n",
+ " 9387 | \n",
+ " 39878 | \n",
+ " NC | \n",
+ " 23245.363281 | \n",
+ " 5382.159180 | \n",
+ " 1.251102e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 4013 | \n",
- " 16074 | \n",
- " OH | \n",
- " 46166.144531 | \n",
- " 6990.998047 | \n",
- " 3.227474e+08 | \n",
+ " 9643 | \n",
+ " 40712 | \n",
+ " SC | \n",
+ " 13224.298828 | \n",
+ " 4779.596680 | \n",
+ " 6.320681e+07 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "11774 47863 FL 135658.906250 17123.369141 2.322938e+09\n",
- "14377 60850 TX 23338.992188 15904.038086 3.711842e+08\n",
- "14628 61712 TX 22272.599609 14010.416992 3.120484e+08\n",
- "6960 25327 MO 11227.063477 13525.498047 1.518516e+08\n",
- "31780 135336 FL 103136.664062 12612.913086 1.300854e+09\n",
- "8987 38686 NC 25387.832031 12249.720703 3.109939e+08\n",
- "8576 36002 VA 17410.156250 10854.941406 1.889862e+08\n",
- "10747 44495 FL 56612.566406 10672.198242 6.041805e+08\n",
- "19620 83988 CA 18989.419922 10092.767578 1.916558e+08\n",
- "4013 16074 OH 46166.144531 6990.998047 3.227474e+08"
+ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
+ "15170 63406 TX 96633.976562 20097.220703 1.942074e+09\n",
+ "11278 46357 FL 63879.199219 15559.541992 9.939311e+08\n",
+ "30957 132558 GA 34982.687500 14077.200195 4.924583e+08\n",
+ "14628 61712 TX 15532.655273 14010.416992 2.176190e+08\n",
+ "11156 46034 FL 30328.830078 9943.345703 3.015700e+08\n",
+ "31402 133962 FL 21518.343750 9887.317383 2.127587e+08\n",
+ "4013 16074 OH 11105.104492 6990.998047 7.763576e+07\n",
+ "31632 134802 FL 23929.857422 5788.573242 1.385197e+08\n",
+ "9387 39878 NC 23245.363281 5382.159180 1.251102e+08\n",
+ "9643 40712 SC 13224.298828 4779.596680 6.320681e+07"
]
},
"metadata": {},
@@ -503,18 +502,10 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 7 | \n",
- " 68 | \n",
- " ME | \n",
- " 18114.335938 | \n",
- " 0.0 | \n",
- " 0.0 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 21 | \n",
- " 134 | \n",
+ " 9 | \n",
+ " 78 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 10089.783203 | \n",
+ " 20615.609375 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
@@ -522,47 +513,47 @@
" 25 | \n",
" 194 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 15542.672852 | \n",
+ " 14024.491211 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 27 | \n",
- " 206 | \n",
+ " 26 | \n",
+ " 199 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 19284.667969 | \n",
+ " 17028.466797 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 31 | \n",
- " 275 | \n",
+ " 38 | \n",
+ " 326 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 11475.574219 | \n",
+ " 14531.310547 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 37 | \n",
- " 324 | \n",
+ " 44 | \n",
+ " 356 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 16666.904297 | \n",
+ " 15670.582031 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 41 | \n",
- " 339 | \n",
+ " 47 | \n",
+ " 380 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 16523.361328 | \n",
+ " 20000.724609 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 43 | \n",
- " 354 | \n",
+ " 48 | \n",
+ " 407 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 11761.126953 | \n",
+ " 10724.878906 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
@@ -570,7 +561,7 @@
" 51 | \n",
" 425 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 15638.842773 | \n",
+ " 15117.451172 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" \n",
@@ -578,7 +569,15 @@
" 53 | \n",
" 437 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 10633.168945 | \n",
+ " 11405.429688 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " 0.0 | \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " 58 | \n",
+ " 475 | \n",
+ " ME | \n",
+ " 12578.248047 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
@@ -588,16 +587,16 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "7 68 ME 18114.335938 0.0 0.0\n",
- "21 134 ME 10089.783203 0.0 0.0\n",
- "25 194 ME 15542.672852 0.0 0.0\n",
- "27 206 ME 19284.667969 0.0 0.0\n",
- "31 275 ME 11475.574219 0.0 0.0\n",
- "37 324 ME 16666.904297 0.0 0.0\n",
- "41 339 ME 16523.361328 0.0 0.0\n",
- "43 354 ME 11761.126953 0.0 0.0\n",
- "51 425 ME 15638.842773 0.0 0.0\n",
- "53 437 ME 10633.168945 0.0 0.0"
+ "9 78 ME 20615.609375 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "25 194 ME 14024.491211 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "26 199 ME 17028.466797 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "38 326 ME 14531.310547 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "44 356 ME 15670.582031 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "47 380 ME 20000.724609 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "48 407 ME 10724.878906 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "51 425 ME 15117.451172 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "53 437 ME 11405.429688 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "58 475 ME 12578.248047 0.0 0.0"
]
},
"metadata": {},
@@ -672,7 +671,6 @@
" Married | \n",
" Num_Dependents | \n",
" Employment_Income | \n",
- " Self_Employment_Income | \n",
" aca_baseline | \n",
" aca_reform | \n",
" weight | \n",
@@ -680,27 +678,26 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 19620 | \n",
- " 83988 | \n",
- " CA | \n",
+ " 600 | \n",
+ " 4428 | \n",
+ " MA | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
- " 2.0 | \n",
- " 160877.21875 | \n",
+ " 4.0 | \n",
+ " 52859.65625 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 10092.767578 | \n",
- " 18989.419922 | \n",
+ " 23814.501953 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
- "19620 83988 CA 1.0 2.0 160877.21875 \n",
+ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
+ "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
"\n",
- " Self_Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
- "19620 0.0 0.0 10092.767578 18989.419922 "
+ " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
+ "600 0.0 0.0 23814.501953 "
]
},
"execution_count": 12,
@@ -709,7 +706,7 @@
}
],
"source": [
- "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 83988]\n"
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n"
]
},
{
@@ -721,7 +718,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,442.32\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,239.40\n"
]
}
],
@@ -751,7 +748,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,663.64\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,784.16\n"
]
}
],
@@ -783,14 +780,51 @@
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $4,797.60\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist (already done above)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Keep only households that *gain* a PTC (reform > 0, baseline == 0)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "mask_reform_only = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] == 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n",
+ "df_reform_only = df_outputs[mask_reform_only]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "avg_net_change_reform_only_hh = (\n",
+ " (df_reform_only[\"net_change\"] * df_reform_only[\"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_reform_only[\"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC \"\n",
+ " f\"under the reform: ${avg_net_change_reform_only_hh:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 16,
+ "metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "32.12809192838201"
+ "29.856163170330728"
]
},
- "execution_count": 15,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -820,7 +854,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 16,
+ "execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -846,16 +880,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$127",
- "$141",
- "$120",
- "$164",
- "$206",
- "$256",
- "$214",
- "$668",
- "$185",
- "$83"
+ "$47",
+ "$126",
+ "$147",
+ "$165",
+ "$209",
+ "$252",
+ "$244",
+ "$281",
+ "$390",
+ "$125"
],
"textposition": "inside",
"type": "bar",
@@ -872,16 +906,16 @@
10
],
"y": [
- 127.10087585449219,
- 140.969970703125,
- 119.75225067138672,
- 163.75502014160156,
- 205.8011016845703,
- 255.56259155273438,
- 213.85777282714844,
- 667.6323852539062,
- 184.54965209960938,
- 83.39998626708984
+ 47.242431640625,
+ 125.9588623046875,
+ 146.8796844482422,
+ 164.8943634033203,
+ 209.1598663330078,
+ 251.72093200683594,
+ 243.78147888183594,
+ 280.51556396484375,
+ 389.531982421875,
+ 124.53172302246094
]
}
],
@@ -1760,16 +1794,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$127",
- "$141",
- "$120",
- "$164",
- "$206",
- "$256",
- "$214",
- "$668",
- "$185",
- "$83"
+ "$47",
+ "$126",
+ "$147",
+ "$165",
+ "$209",
+ "$252",
+ "$244",
+ "$281",
+ "$390",
+ "$125"
],
"textposition": "inside",
"type": "bar",
@@ -1786,16 +1820,16 @@
10
],
"y": [
- 127.10087585449219,
- 140.969970703125,
- 119.75225067138672,
- 163.75502014160156,
- 205.8011016845703,
- 255.56259155273438,
- 213.85777282714844,
- 667.6323852539062,
- 184.54965209960938,
- 83.39998626708984
+ 47.242431640625,
+ 125.9588623046875,
+ 146.8796844482422,
+ 164.8943634033203,
+ 209.1598663330078,
+ 251.72093200683594,
+ 243.78147888183594,
+ 280.51556396484375,
+ 389.531982421875,
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],
diff --git a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
similarity index 90%
rename from us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
rename to us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
index b8a630a..e761e03 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/medicaid_households.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
@@ -2,18 +2,9 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 1,
+ "execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/lib/python3.12/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
- " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -25,7 +16,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 2,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -61,7 +52,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 3,
+ "execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -158,7 +149,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 4,
+ "execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -237,7 +228,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 5,
+ "execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -259,7 +250,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -322,7 +313,7 @@
"2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172"
]
},
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -394,7 +385,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 30,
+ "execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -486,7 +477,7 @@
"3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 30,
+ "execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -586,227 +577,9 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 28,
+ "execution_count": 18,
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- },
- {
- "ename": "AttributeError",
- "evalue": "'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'",
- "output_type": "error",
- "traceback": [
- "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
- "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
- "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[28], line 7\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold_net_income_including_health_benefits\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m baseline_new_york_slcsp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mslcsp\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m----> 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mprint\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbaseline_new_york_slcsp\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmedian\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 9\u001b[0m reform_new_york_per_capita_chip \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mper_capita_chip\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 10\u001b[0m reform_new_york_aca_ptc \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m reformed_simulation_new_york\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124maca_ptc\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m2026\u001b[39m)\n",
- "\u001b[0;31mAttributeError\u001b[0m: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'median'"
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": [
"household_income_new_york = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
"baseline_new_york_per_capita_chip = simulation_new_york.calculate(\"per_capita_chip\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
@@ -849,7 +622,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 12,
+ "execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -861,7 +634,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 31,
+ "execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -28567,7 +28340,7 @@
"\n",
"fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_texas, \n",
- " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost, \n",
+ " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost,\n",
" mode='lines', \n",
" name='Medicaid (Reform)', \n",
" line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
@@ -28614,7 +28387,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 14,
+ "execution_count": 27,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -32721,56 +32494,7 @@
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "#House hold net income graphs\n",
- "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
- "\n",
- "# ---------- NY fam ----------\n",
- "fig_ny = go.Figure()\n",
- "\n",
- "# Baseline (solid)\n",
- "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_new_york,\n",
- " y=baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n",
- " mode='lines',\n",
- " name='Health Net Income (Baseline)',\n",
- " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2) # use your palette constant\n",
- "))\n",
- "\n",
- "# Reform (dotted)\n",
- "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_new_york,\n",
- " y=reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n",
- " mode='lines',\n",
- " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n",
- " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
- "))\n",
- "\n",
- "# Layout\n",
- "fig_ny.update_layout(\n",
- " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n",
- " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
- " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n",
- " legend_title='Scenario',\n",
- " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n",
- " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n",
- " height=600,\n",
- " width=1000\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n",
- "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_ny.show()\n"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 32,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
+ },
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": {
@@ -32784,7 +32508,7 @@
"width": 2
},
"mode": "lines",
- "name": "Health Net Income (Baseline)",
+ "name": "Δ Net Income (Reform – Baseline)",
"type": "scatter",
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+ },
+ "width": 800,
+ "xaxis": {
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+ 400000
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+ "tickformat": "$,.0f",
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+ "source": [
+ "#House hold net income graphs\n",
+ "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ---------- NY fam ----------\n",
+ "fig_ny = go.Figure()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Baseline (solid)\n",
+ "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
+ " x=household_income_new_york,\n",
+ " y=baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n",
+ " mode='lines',\n",
+ " name='Health Net Income (Baseline)',\n",
+ " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2) # use your palette constant\n",
+ "))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Reform (dotted)\n",
+ "fig_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
+ " x=household_income_new_york,\n",
+ " y=reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits,\n",
+ " mode='lines',\n",
+ " name='Health Net Income (Reform)',\n",
+ " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
+ "))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Layout\n",
+ "fig_ny.update_layout(\n",
+ " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income',\n",
+ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
+ " yaxis_title='Health-Adjusted Net Income',\n",
+ " legend_title='Scenario',\n",
+ " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n",
+ " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f'),\n",
+ " height=600,\n",
+ " width=1000\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n",
+ "fig_ny = format_fig(fig_ny)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_ny.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# --- Δ Health-adjusted net income (Reform – Baseline) ---\n",
+ "delta_ny = (\n",
+ " reform_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits\n",
+ " - baseline_new_york_net_income_including_health_benefits\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_ny = go.Figure()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_ny.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
+ " x=household_income_new_york,\n",
+ " y=delta_ny,\n",
+ " mode='lines',\n",
+ " name='Δ Net Income (Reform – Baseline)',\n",
+ " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n",
+ "))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_ny.update_layout(\n",
+ " title='New York Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits',\n",
+ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
+ " yaxis_title='Δ Net Income',\n",
+ " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 400_000]),\n",
+ " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', zeroline=True, zerolinewidth=1),\n",
+ " height=600,\n",
+ " width=1000,\n",
+ " legend=dict(orientation='h')\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_ny = format_fig(fig_delta_ny) # if you use the helper elsewhere\n",
+ "fig_delta_ny.show()\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 26,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
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+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "layout": {
+ "font": {
+ "color": "black",
+ "family": "Roboto Serif"
+ },
+ "height": 600,
+ "images": [
+ {
+ "sizex": 0.15,
+ "sizey": 0.15,
+ "source": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png",
+ "x": 1.1,
+ "xanchor": "right",
+ "xref": "paper",
+ "y": -0.15,
+ "yanchor": "bottom",
+ "yref": "paper"
+ }
+ ],
+ "legend": {
+ "orientation": "h"
},
"modebar": {
"bgcolor": "rgba(0,0,0,0)",
@@ -36851,7 +41634,7 @@
}
},
"title": {
- "text": "Texas Household (Married Couple) – Health-Adjusted Net Income by Household Income"
+ "text": "Texas Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits"
},
"width": 800,
"xaxis": {
@@ -36867,8 +41650,10 @@
"yaxis": {
"tickformat": "$,.0f",
"title": {
- "text": "Health-Adjusted Net Income"
- }
+ "text": "Δ Net Income"
+ },
+ "zeroline": true,
+ "zerolinewidth": 1
}
}
}
@@ -36914,12 +41699,42 @@
"# Optional wrapper if you use one elsewhere\n",
"fig_tx = format_fig(fig_tx)\n",
"\n",
- "fig_tx.show()\n"
+ "fig_tx.show()\n",
+ "# --- Δ Health-adjusted net income (Reform – Baseline), Texas ---\n",
+ "delta_tx = (\n",
+ " reform_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits\n",
+ " - baseline_texas_net_income_including_health_benefits\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_tx = go.Figure()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_tx.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
+ " x=household_income_texas,\n",
+ " y=delta_tx,\n",
+ " mode='lines',\n",
+ " name='Δ Net Income (Reform – Baseline)',\n",
+ " line=dict(color=DARK_GRAY, width=2)\n",
+ "))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_tx.update_layout(\n",
+ " title='Texas Household (Family of 3) – Impact of Extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits',\n",
+ " xaxis_title='Household Income',\n",
+ " yaxis_title='Δ Net Income',\n",
+ " xaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', range=[0, 200_000]),\n",
+ " yaxis=dict(tickformat='$,.0f', zeroline=True, zerolinewidth=1),\n",
+ " height=600,\n",
+ " width=1000,\n",
+ " legend=dict(orientation='h')\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "fig_delta_tx = format_fig(fig_delta_tx) # if you’re using that helper\n",
+ "fig_delta_tx.show()\n",
+ "\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 19,
+ "execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -41090,7 +45905,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 21,
+ "execution_count": 24,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
From 3ac06dc029f2cf9ef9c0af5d93e8dcc4a5681125 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: daphnehanse11 <128793799+daphnehanse11@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2025 14:08:10 -0400
Subject: [PATCH 15/15] notebooks
---
.gitignore | 1 +
us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb | 1801 +-
us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb | 4242 +++++
us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb | 121 +-
us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb | 19327 +++++++---------------
us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py | 210 +
us/medicaid/claude_help.md | 48 +
us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb | 126 +
us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb | 4 +-
9 files changed, 12747 insertions(+), 13133 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb
create mode 100644 us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py
create mode 100644 us/medicaid/claude_help.md
create mode 100644 us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb
diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
index 82f9275..81faeef 100644
--- a/.gitignore
+++ b/.gitignore
@@ -160,3 +160,4 @@ cython_debug/
# and can be added to the global gitignore or merged into this file. For a more nuclear
# option (not recommended) you can uncomment the following to ignore the entire idea folder.
#.idea/
+us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5
diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
index 68c5b94..55f6ec7 100644
--- a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
+++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire.ipynb
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "34.4898908313967"
+ "31.542351631973784"
]
},
"execution_count": 4,
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "228.37424343962823"
+ "225.39480517300126"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "191,573,928 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "205,150,194 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -156,7 +156,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "24,630,096 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "22,890,509 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -190,7 +190,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "20,074,006 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ "16,961,632 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
]
}
],
@@ -278,7 +278,7 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 600 | \n",
+ " 459 | \n",
" 4428 | \n",
" MA | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
@@ -293,10 +293,10 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
- "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
+ "459 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
"\n",
" aca_baseline aca_reform \n",
- "600 0.0 0.0 "
+ "459 0.0 0.0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 10,
@@ -364,101 +364,101 @@
" \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 15170 | \n",
+ " 3930 | \n",
+ " 22572 | \n",
+ " WI | \n",
+ " 14746.737305 | \n",
+ " 20787.404785 | \n",
+ " 3.065464e+08 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 9715 | \n",
" 63406 | \n",
" TX | \n",
- " 96633.976562 | \n",
- " 20097.220703 | \n",
- " 1.942074e+09 | \n",
+ " 313614.062500 | \n",
+ " 20464.279297 | \n",
+ " 6.417886e+09 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 11278 | \n",
- " 46357 | \n",
+ " 7593 | \n",
+ " 47863 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 63879.199219 | \n",
- " 15559.541992 | \n",
- " 9.939311e+08 | \n",
+ " 13494.670898 | \n",
+ " 20171.796875 | \n",
+ " 2.722118e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 30957 | \n",
- " 132558 | \n",
- " GA | \n",
- " 34982.687500 | \n",
- " 14077.200195 | \n",
- " 4.924583e+08 | \n",
+ " 12472 | \n",
+ " 83838 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 42713.929688 | \n",
+ " 18523.296875 | \n",
+ " 7.912028e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 14628 | \n",
- " 61712 | \n",
- " TX | \n",
- " 15532.655273 | \n",
- " 14010.416992 | \n",
- " 2.176190e+08 | \n",
+ " 11078 | \n",
+ " 74935 | \n",
+ " UT | \n",
+ " 19624.578125 | \n",
+ " 14949.250000 | \n",
+ " 2.933727e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 11156 | \n",
+ " 7287 | \n",
" 46034 | \n",
" FL | \n",
- " 30328.830078 | \n",
- " 9943.345703 | \n",
- " 3.015700e+08 | \n",
+ " 191966.390625 | \n",
+ " 13774.429688 | \n",
+ " 2.644228e+09 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 31402 | \n",
- " 133962 | \n",
- " FL | \n",
- " 21518.343750 | \n",
- " 9887.317383 | \n",
- " 2.127587e+08 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 4013 | \n",
- " 16074 | \n",
- " OH | \n",
- " 11105.104492 | \n",
- " 6990.998047 | \n",
- " 7.763576e+07 | \n",
+ " 1718 | \n",
+ " 11792 | \n",
+ " NJ | \n",
+ " 22938.029297 | \n",
+ " 9646.639648 | \n",
+ " 2.212749e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 31632 | \n",
- " 134802 | \n",
- " FL | \n",
- " 23929.857422 | \n",
- " 5788.573242 | \n",
- " 1.385197e+08 | \n",
+ " 5058 | \n",
+ " 29932 | \n",
+ " KS | \n",
+ " 10356.357422 | \n",
+ " 9572.796875 | \n",
+ " 9.913931e+07 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 9387 | \n",
- " 39878 | \n",
- " NC | \n",
- " 23245.363281 | \n",
- " 5382.159180 | \n",
- " 1.251102e+08 | \n",
+ " 3335 | \n",
+ " 19714 | \n",
+ " IL | \n",
+ " 12393.625000 | \n",
+ " 7891.378906 | \n",
+ " 9.780279e+07 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 9643 | \n",
- " 40712 | \n",
- " SC | \n",
- " 13224.298828 | \n",
- " 4779.596680 | \n",
- " 6.320681e+07 | \n",
+ " 4053 | \n",
+ " 23036 | \n",
+ " WI | \n",
+ " 20458.789062 | \n",
+ " 7672.568359 | \n",
+ " 1.569715e+08 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
""
],
"text/plain": [
- " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "15170 63406 TX 96633.976562 20097.220703 1.942074e+09\n",
- "11278 46357 FL 63879.199219 15559.541992 9.939311e+08\n",
- "30957 132558 GA 34982.687500 14077.200195 4.924583e+08\n",
- "14628 61712 TX 15532.655273 14010.416992 2.176190e+08\n",
- "11156 46034 FL 30328.830078 9943.345703 3.015700e+08\n",
- "31402 133962 FL 21518.343750 9887.317383 2.127587e+08\n",
- "4013 16074 OH 11105.104492 6990.998047 7.763576e+07\n",
- "31632 134802 FL 23929.857422 5788.573242 1.385197e+08\n",
- "9387 39878 NC 23245.363281 5382.159180 1.251102e+08\n",
- "9643 40712 SC 13224.298828 4779.596680 6.320681e+07"
+ " household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
+ "3930 22572 WI 14746.737305 20787.404785 3.065464e+08\n",
+ "9715 63406 TX 313614.062500 20464.279297 6.417886e+09\n",
+ "7593 47863 FL 13494.670898 20171.796875 2.722118e+08\n",
+ "12472 83838 CA 42713.929688 18523.296875 7.912028e+08\n",
+ "11078 74935 UT 19624.578125 14949.250000 2.933727e+08\n",
+ "7287 46034 FL 191966.390625 13774.429688 2.644228e+09\n",
+ "1718 11792 NJ 22938.029297 9646.639648 2.212749e+08\n",
+ "5058 29932 KS 10356.357422 9572.796875 9.913931e+07\n",
+ "3335 19714 IL 12393.625000 7891.378906 9.780279e+07\n",
+ "4053 23036 WI 20458.789062 7672.568359 1.569715e+08"
]
},
"metadata": {},
@@ -502,82 +502,82 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
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- " 78 | \n",
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+ " 12 | \n",
" ME | \n",
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"
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" \n",
- " 25 | \n",
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+ " 1 | \n",
+ " 21 | \n",
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"
\n",
" \n",
- " 26 | \n",
- " 199 | \n",
+ " 8 | \n",
+ " 73 | \n",
" ME | \n",
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+ " 10017.615234 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 38 | \n",
- " 326 | \n",
+ " 10 | \n",
+ " 79 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 14531.310547 | \n",
+ " 21640.277344 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 44 | \n",
- " 356 | \n",
+ " 20 | \n",
+ " 134 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 15670.582031 | \n",
+ " 21905.371094 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 47 | \n",
- " 380 | \n",
+ " 24 | \n",
+ " 194 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 20000.724609 | \n",
+ " 14491.523438 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 48 | \n",
- " 407 | \n",
+ " 26 | \n",
+ " 206 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 10724.878906 | \n",
+ " 23982.746094 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 51 | \n",
- " 425 | \n",
+ " 28 | \n",
+ " 261 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 15117.451172 | \n",
+ " 14972.551758 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 53 | \n",
- " 437 | \n",
+ " 41 | \n",
+ " 356 | \n",
" ME | \n",
- " 11405.429688 | \n",
+ " 13415.000000 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
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" \n",
- " 58 | \n",
- " 475 | \n",
+ " 45 | \n",
+ " 407 | \n",
" ME | \n",
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@@ -587,16 +587,16 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State weight net_change wt_change\n",
- "9 78 ME 20615.609375 0.0 0.0\n",
- "25 194 ME 14024.491211 0.0 0.0\n",
- "26 199 ME 17028.466797 0.0 0.0\n",
- "38 326 ME 14531.310547 0.0 0.0\n",
- "44 356 ME 15670.582031 0.0 0.0\n",
- "47 380 ME 20000.724609 0.0 0.0\n",
- "48 407 ME 10724.878906 0.0 0.0\n",
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- "53 437 ME 11405.429688 0.0 0.0\n",
- "58 475 ME 12578.248047 0.0 0.0"
+ "0 12 ME 28690.535156 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "1 21 ME 10654.151367 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "8 73 ME 10017.615234 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "10 79 ME 21640.277344 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "20 134 ME 21905.371094 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "24 194 ME 14491.523438 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "26 206 ME 23982.746094 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "28 261 ME 14972.551758 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "41 356 ME 13415.000000 0.0 0.0\n",
+ "45 407 ME 10767.994141 0.0 0.0"
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},
"metadata": {},
@@ -678,7 +678,7 @@
" \n",
" \n",
" \n",
- " 600 | \n",
+ " 459 | \n",
" 4428 | \n",
" MA | \n",
" 1.0 | \n",
@@ -686,7 +686,7 @@
" 52859.65625 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
" 0.0 | \n",
- " 23814.501953 | \n",
+ " 4397.432129 | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
"\n",
@@ -694,10 +694,10 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
- "600 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
+ "459 4428 MA 1.0 4.0 52859.65625 \n",
"\n",
- " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
- "600 0.0 0.0 23814.501953 "
+ " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
+ "459 0.0 0.0 4397.432129 "
]
},
"execution_count": 12,
@@ -718,7 +718,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,239.40\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,730.13\n"
]
}
],
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,784.16\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $2,239.05\n"
]
}
],
@@ -785,7 +785,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $4,797.60\n"
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $5,302.77\n"
]
}
],
@@ -821,7 +821,7 @@
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "29.856163170330728"
+ "32.76222811087988"
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"execution_count": 16,
@@ -880,16 +880,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$47",
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+ "$154",
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+ "$283",
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"textposition": "inside",
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@@ -906,16 +906,16 @@
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}
],
@@ -1794,16 +1794,16 @@
]
},
"text": [
- "$47",
- "$126",
- "$147",
+ "$45",
+ "$129",
+ "$173",
+ "$94",
+ "$173",
+ "$154",
"$165",
- "$209",
- "$252",
- "$244",
- "$281",
- "$390",
- "$125"
+ "$283",
+ "$730",
+ "$267"
],
"textposition": "inside",
"type": "bar",
@@ -1820,16 +1820,16 @@
10
],
"y": [
- 47.242431640625,
- 125.9588623046875,
- 146.8796844482422,
- 164.8943634033203,
- 209.1598663330078,
- 251.72093200683594,
- 243.78147888183594,
- 280.51556396484375,
- 389.531982421875,
- 124.53172302246094
+ 45.11362075805664,
+ 128.75291442871094,
+ 173.0161895751953,
+ 93.90471649169922,
+ 172.68763732910156,
+ 153.82765197753906,
+ 165.1871337890625,
+ 282.6961975097656,
+ 729.6290283203125,
+ 266.8133850097656
]
}
],
@@ -2782,6 +2782,1481 @@
"fig.show()\n",
"fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1) # show 1-10 instead of only the evens\n"
]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "id": "1jhns1uinylj",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Number of households gaining PTC under reform: 761\n",
+ "Weighted count: 1,923,488\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average reform PTC for these households: $5,751.24\n",
+ "Weighted average reform PTC: $5,302.77\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's analyze the households affected by the ACA reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# First, let's look at households that gain PTC under reform but had none in baseline\n",
+ "gained_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households gaining PTC under reform: {len(gained_ptc)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage reform PTC for these households: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted average reform PTC: ${(gained_ptc['aca_reform'] * gained_ptc['weight']).sum() / gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.2f}\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 19,
+ "id": "kezjkjwshvl",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "ename": "ModuleNotFoundError",
+ "evalue": "No module named 'matplotlib'",
+ "output_type": "error",
+ "traceback": [
+ "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
+ "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
+ "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[19], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look at income distribution of households gaining PTC\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mimport\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;21;01mmatplotlib\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;21;01m.\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;21;01mpyplot\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;250m \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;21;01mplt\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m gained_ptc_with_income \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m gained_ptc\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcopy()\n",
+ "\u001b[0;31mModuleNotFoundError\u001b[0m: No module named 'matplotlib'"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's look at income distribution of households gaining PTC\n",
+ "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n",
+ "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n",
+ "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n",
+ "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n",
+ "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n",
+ " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show income distribution of households gaining PTC\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n",
+ "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show top 10 households by PTC gain amount\n",
+ "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n",
+ "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_gainers"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 20,
+ "id": "qzjyh3eo44",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Income percentiles across all households:\n",
+ " 25th percentile: $8,776\n",
+ " 50th percentile: $59,168\n",
+ " 75th percentile: $121,807\n",
+ " 90th percentile: $205,693\n",
+ " 95th percentile: $287,212\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "count 761.000000\n",
+ "mean 113532.674681\n",
+ "std 67906.364616\n",
+ "min 0.000000\n",
+ "25% 68947.382812\n",
+ "50% 103907.218750\n",
+ "75% 150131.617188\n",
+ "max 467888.655273\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n",
+ "============================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ "62 548 ME 0.000000 24623.031250 1.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Num_Dependents weight \n",
+ "10241 3.0 6615.325195 \n",
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+ ]
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n",
+ "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n",
+ "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n",
+ "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n",
+ "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n",
+ "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n",
+ " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n",
+ "display(top_gainers)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 20,
+ "id": "6ngx1hex7d7",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Income percentiles across all households:\n",
+ " 25th percentile: $8,776\n",
+ " 50th percentile: $59,168\n",
+ " 75th percentile: $121,807\n",
+ " 90th percentile: $205,693\n",
+ " 95th percentile: $287,212\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "count 761.000000\n",
+ "mean 113532.674681\n",
+ "std 67906.364616\n",
+ "min 0.000000\n",
+ "25% 68947.382812\n",
+ "50% 103907.218750\n",
+ "75% 150131.617188\n",
+ "max 467888.655273\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n",
+ "============================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ " household_id State Employment_Income aca_reform Married \\\n",
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+ "21284 173817 CA 120305.722656 24842.128906 1.0 \n",
+ "62 548 ME 0.000000 24623.031250 1.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Num_Dependents weight \n",
+ "10241 3.0 6615.325195 \n",
+ "4600 0.0 4003.946045 \n",
+ "17827 1.0 0.052937 \n",
+ "9197 0.0 1484.846436 \n",
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+ "21249 0.0 0.000211 \n",
+ "21284 0.0 0.003597 \n",
+ "62 0.0 1530.439819 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 20,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n",
+ "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n",
+ "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n",
+ "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n",
+ "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n",
+ "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n",
+ " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_gainers"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 21,
+ "id": "fbg7gtwvt09",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\n",
+ "Number of households: 0\n",
+ "Weighted count: 0\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average baseline PTC: $nan\n",
+ "Average reform PTC: $nan\n",
+ "Average loss: $nan\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Income distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\n",
+ "count 0.0\n",
+ "mean NaN\n",
+ "std NaN\n",
+ "min NaN\n",
+ "25% NaN\n",
+ "50% NaN\n",
+ "75% NaN\n",
+ "max NaN\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC loss:\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ " net_change | \n",
+ " weight | \n",
+ "
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+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ "
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+ "
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+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ "Empty DataFrame\n",
+ "Columns: [household_id, State, Employment_Income, aca_baseline, aca_reform, net_change, weight]\n",
+ "Index: []"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 21,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Now let's look at households losing PTC or seeing reduced PTC\n",
+ "lost_or_reduced = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['net_change'] < 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households: {len(lost_or_reduced)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {lost_or_reduced['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average loss: ${lost_or_reduced['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Income distribution\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\")\n",
+ "print(lost_or_reduced['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Top losers\n",
+ "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC loss:\")\n",
+ "top_losers = lost_or_reduced.nsmallest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_losers"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 22,
+ "id": "y1a0d1tqy9n",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\n",
+ "Number of households: 2437\n",
+ "Weighted count: 10,076,767\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average baseline PTC: $7,909.13\n",
+ "Average reform PTC: $9,880.77\n",
+ "Average change: $1,971.64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Distribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\n",
+ "count 2437.000000\n",
+ "mean 1971.639511\n",
+ "std 1562.269100\n",
+ "min 433.568359\n",
+ "25% 1304.000244\n",
+ "50% 1613.736328\n",
+ "75% 2232.999512\n",
+ "max 29610.569824\n",
+ "Name: net_change, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Top 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
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+ " household_id State Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \\\n",
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+ "\n",
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+ "metadata": {},
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+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Interesting - no households lose PTC! Let's look at those who keep their PTC but see changes\n",
+ "kept_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households: {len(kept_ptc)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {kept_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average change: ${kept_ptc['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show distribution of changes\n",
+ "print(\"\\nDistribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\")\n",
+ "print(kept_ptc['net_change'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Households with biggest increases among those who already had PTC\n",
+ "print(\"\\nTop 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\")\n",
+ "top_increases = kept_ptc.nlargest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_increases"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "id": "7pukgyq18zt",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Households between 350-450% FPL: 2108\n",
+ "Weighted count: 12,872,038\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Below 400% FPL (350-400%): 1094 households\n",
+ " Average baseline PTC: $1,367.79\n",
+ " Average reform PTC: $1,867.28\n",
+ " Average change: $499.49\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Above 400% FPL (400-450%): 1014 households\n",
+ " Average baseline PTC: $660.53\n",
+ " Average reform PTC: $1,449.85\n",
+ " Average change: $789.33\n",
+ "\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\n",
+ "======================================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ " aca_reform | \n",
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+ " household_id State Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n",
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+ "1446 10425 NJ 129850.888672 403.263629 0.000000 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " aca_reform net_change weight \n",
+ "11 0.000 0.000000 1078.256592 \n",
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+ "1446 0.000 0.000000 227.340012 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's calculate approximate FPL levels for households to understand where they fall\n",
+ "# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations based on current trends)\n",
+ "fpl_2026 = {\n",
+ " 1: 15570, # Single person\n",
+ " 2: 21130, # Couple\n",
+ " 3: 26650, # Family of 3\n",
+ " 4: 32200, # Family of 4\n",
+ " 5: 37750, # Family of 5\n",
+ " 6: 43300, # Family of 6\n",
+ " 7: 48850, # Family of 7\n",
+ " 8: 54400, # Family of 8\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate household size and FPL ratio\n",
+ "df_outputs['household_size'] = 2 + df_outputs['Num_Dependents'] # Assuming married couples or singles with deps\n",
+ "df_outputs['household_size'] = df_outputs.apply(\n",
+ " lambda row: (1 + row['Married'] + row['Num_Dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['Married']) else 1,\n",
+ " axis=1\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Map FPL based on household size\n",
+ "df_outputs['fpl_threshold'] = df_outputs['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400))\n",
+ "df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] = (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] / df_outputs['fpl_threshold']) * 100\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Now let's analyze the cliff effect around 400% FPL\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Households just below and above 400% FPL\n",
+ "near_cliff = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)]\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL: {len(near_cliff)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Split by those above and below 400% FPL\n",
+ "below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400]\n",
+ "above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%): {len(below_400)} households\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%): {len(above_400)} households\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show some examples\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "cliff_examples = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 395) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 405)]\n",
+ "cliff_examples_display = cliff_examples[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n",
+ " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']].head(10)\n",
+ "cliff_examples_display"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 24,
+ "id": "hmhah1unlwn",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "ename": "ValueError",
+ "evalue": "Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges",
+ "output_type": "error",
+ "traceback": [
+ "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
+ "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
+ "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[24], line 3\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Calculate income deciles\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 3\u001b[0m df_outputs[\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m] \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mpd\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mqcut\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mdf_outputs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mEmployment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m10\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mrange\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m11\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mdrop\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Group by decile and show the effect\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m decile_analysis \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m df_outputs\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mgroupby(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39magg({\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mEmployment_Income\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: [\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmin\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmax\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m],\n\u001b[1;32m 8\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mfpl_ratio\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 12\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mweight\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124msum\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m })\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mround(\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m)\n",
+ "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:340\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mqcut\u001b[0;34m(x, q, labels, retbins, precision, duplicates)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 336\u001b[0m quantiles \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mlinspace(\u001b[38;5;241m0\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m, q \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m) \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m is_integer(q) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m q\n\u001b[1;32m 338\u001b[0m bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m x_idx\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mto_series()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdropna()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mquantile(quantiles)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 340\u001b[0m fac, bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 341\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mx_idx\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 342\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mIndex\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbins\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 343\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 344\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 345\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43minclude_lowest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mTrue\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 346\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 347\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 349\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m _postprocess_for_cut(fac, bins, retbins, original)\n",
+ "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:493\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[0;34m(x_idx, bins, right, labels, precision, include_lowest, duplicates, ordered)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 491\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 492\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;241m!=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(bins) \u001b[38;5;241m-\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 493\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\n\u001b[1;32m 494\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mBin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 495\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 497\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mgetattr\u001b[39m(labels, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdtype\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m), CategoricalDtype):\n\u001b[1;32m 498\u001b[0m labels \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m Categorical(\n\u001b[1;32m 499\u001b[0m labels,\n\u001b[1;32m 500\u001b[0m categories\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mlabels \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mset\u001b[39m(labels)) \u001b[38;5;241m==\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m,\n\u001b[1;32m 501\u001b[0m ordered\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mordered,\n\u001b[1;32m 502\u001b[0m )\n",
+ "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\n",
+ "# Calculate income deciles\n",
+ "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, labels=range(1, 11), duplicates='drop')\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Group by decile and show the effect\n",
+ "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('income_decile').agg({\n",
+ " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n",
+ " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'net_change': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'weight': 'sum'\n",
+ "}).round(2)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n",
+ "decile_analysis"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "id": "w09m1i1mc5q",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Income ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
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+ " aca_baseline | \n",
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+ " net_change | \n",
+ " weight | \n",
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+ "text/plain": [
+ " Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n",
+ " min max mean mean mean \n",
+ "decile_num \n",
+ "1 0.00 22082.70 3081.23 16.50 481.01 \n",
+ "2 22096.56 40219.30 31811.30 167.52 1638.77 \n",
+ "3 40220.45 59168.34 50102.24 254.53 1575.92 \n",
+ "4 59179.83 80438.61 69904.57 343.95 1437.25 \n",
+ "5 80438.61 106574.53 93253.97 434.80 1303.70 \n",
+ "6 106597.34 142491.25 122908.07 554.42 816.63 \n",
+ "7 142491.25 205693.01 169652.75 727.25 489.02 \n",
+ "8 205693.02 3305428.97 382158.51 1548.38 210.36 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " aca_reform net_change weight \n",
+ " mean mean sum \n",
+ "decile_num \n",
+ "1 618.01 136.99 56060974.39 \n",
+ "2 1989.05 350.27 18267145.22 \n",
+ "3 2062.44 486.52 13547056.92 \n",
+ "4 2029.91 592.66 12499143.93 \n",
+ "5 2060.30 756.60 11057517.34 \n",
+ "6 1518.36 701.72 13853349.38 \n",
+ "7 1177.16 688.14 10689611.79 \n",
+ "8 482.04 271.67 11524346.53 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Fix the decile calculation\n",
+ "# Calculate income deciles without explicit labels to avoid the error\n",
+ "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, duplicates='drop')\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get unique deciles and sort them\n",
+ "deciles = sorted(df_outputs['income_decile'].unique())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create a mapping to simpler labels\n",
+ "decile_map = {d: i+1 for i, d in enumerate(deciles)}\n",
+ "df_outputs['decile_num'] = df_outputs['income_decile'].map(decile_map)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Group by decile and show the effect\n",
+ "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('decile_num').agg({\n",
+ " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n",
+ " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'net_change': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'weight': 'sum'\n",
+ "}).round(2)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n",
+ "decile_analysis"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "id": "fbfun838g2",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's look at where in the data the 9th decile falls (the one from the chart)\n",
+ "# Since we only have 8 groups due to duplicates being dropped, let's recalculate properly\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# First, let's understand the actual income distribution better\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n",
+ "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n",
+ "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n",
+ "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n",
+ " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# The 9th decile should be roughly between 80th and 90th percentile\n",
+ "ninth_decile = df_outputs[(df_outputs['Employment_Income'] >= income_pcts[7]) & \n",
+ " (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] < income_pcts[8])]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\n9th Decile (80-90th percentile):\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Income range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Number of households: {len(ninth_decile)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Now let's see WHO specifically gains in the 9th decile\n",
+ "ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100] # Gains more than $100\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nHouseholds in 9th decile with gains > $100:\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['Employment_Income'].mean():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Look at specific examples\n",
+ "print(\"\\nExample households in 9th decile with large gains:\")\n",
+ "examples = ninth_decile_gainers.nlargest(5, 'net_change')[\n",
+ " ['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n",
+ " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents']\n",
+ "]\n",
+ "examples"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 26,
+ "id": "inz803s5rlm",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Checking available variables:\n",
+ "df_outputs exists: True\n",
+ "df_outputs shape: (21607, 14)\n",
+ "Columns: ['household_id', 'State', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'weight', 'net_change', 'household_size', 'fpl_threshold', 'fpl_ratio', 'income_decile', 'decile_num']\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Check if the dataframe exists and has the needed columns\n",
+ "print(\"Checking available variables:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"df_outputs exists: {'df_outputs' in locals()}\")\n",
+ "if 'df_outputs' in locals():\n",
+ " print(f\"df_outputs shape: {df_outputs.shape}\")\n",
+ " print(f\"Columns: {list(df_outputs.columns)}\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "id": "qhtylcg4wz",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Understanding the 9th decile concentration\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n",
+ "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n",
+ "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n",
+ "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n",
+ " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")"
+ ]
}
],
"metadata": {
diff --git a/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5983249
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/blog_posts/ira_expire_old_data.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,4242 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 1,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
+ "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "\n",
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2025-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.02\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.04\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.06\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.085\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " }\n",
+ "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 3,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n",
+ "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", period=2024)\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 4,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "37.008340397541666"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 4,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline_aca_eligible = baseline.calculate(\"is_aca_ptc_eligible\", map_to=\"tax_unit\", period=2026).sum()\n",
+ "baseline_aca_eligible/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ "227.46342831824853"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "baseline_aca_enrollment = baseline.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\", map_to=\"person\", period=2026).sum()\n",
+ "baseline_aca_enrollment/1e6"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 6,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "197,799,923 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2025\n",
+ "sim = baseline\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 7,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "28,427,905 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2026\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up_r = reformed.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc_r = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt_r = reformed.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up_r == 1) & (aca_ptc_r > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt_r).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd_r:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 8,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "20,115,724 weighted people live in tax units that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "period = 2026\n",
+ "sim = baseline\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Tax-unit flags, broadcast to people ──────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "takes_up = sim.calculate(\"takes_up_aca_if_eligible\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # 0/1\n",
+ "aca_ptc = sim.calculate(\"aca_ptc\",\n",
+ " map_to=\"person\", period=period) # $ amount\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── PERSON weights (pick any person-level variable) ─────────────────────────\n",
+ "person_wt = sim.calculate(\"age\", map_to=\"person\", period=period).weights\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ── Build mask & sum weights ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
+ "mask = (takes_up == 1) & (aca_ptc > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd = (mask.astype(float) * person_wt).sum()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"{people_with_ptc_takeup_wtd:,.0f} weighted people live in tax units \"\n",
+ " \"that take up Marketplace coverage and actually receive a PTC.\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": []
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 9,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "year = 2026\n",
+ "state = baseline.calculate(\"state_code\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "num_dependents = baseline.calculate(\"tax_unit_dependents\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "married = baseline.calculate(\"is_married\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "self_employment_income = baseline.calculate(\"self_employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "aca_baseline = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "rating_area = baseline.calculate(\"slcsp_rating_area\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "household_id = baseline.calculate(\"household_id\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
+ "aca_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 10,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
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+ " Married | \n",
+ " Num_Dependents | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ "
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+ " household_id State Married Num_Dependents Employment_Income \\\n",
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+ "600 0.0 0.0 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 10,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Create a DataFrame with the outputs\n",
+ "data = {\n",
+ " \"household_id\": household_id,\n",
+ " \"State\": state,\n",
+ " \"Married\": married,\n",
+ " \"Num_Dependents\": num_dependents,\n",
+ " \"Employment_Income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"aca_baseline\": aca_baseline,\n",
+ " \"aca_reform\": aca_reform,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " }\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_outputs = pd.DataFrame(data)\n",
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 11,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\n"
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+ },
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+ "44 356 ME 55298.234375 0.0 0.0"
+ ]
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0️⃣ Make sure the CPS household weight is in the DataFrame\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# If you already stuffed it in earlier, skip this.\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"weight\"] = aca_baseline.weights # aligns by household_id\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1️⃣ Define a weight threshold for “reasonably representative”\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "MIN_WT = 10_000 # ↖ try 5_000 if you want a looser cut\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df_big = df_outputs[df_outputs[\"weight\"] >= MIN_WT].copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2️⃣ Net PTC change and (optionally) weighted national impact\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_big[\"net_change\"] = df_big[\"aca_reform\"] - df_big[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "df_big[\"wt_change\"] = df_big[\"net_change\"] * df_big[\"weight\"] # national $ impact\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 3️⃣ Biggest ↑ increases and ↓ decreases, LIMITED to big-weight HHs\n",
+ "# -------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "N = 10 # how many households to show in each direction\n",
+ "\n",
+ "cols = [\"household_id\", \"State\", \"weight\", \"net_change\", \"wt_change\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "top_increases = df_big.nlargest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n",
+ "top_decreases = df_big.nsmallest(N, \"net_change\")[cols]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Most positive net-income changes (PTC boosts):\")\n",
+ "display(top_increases)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\nMost negative net-income changes (PTC cuts):\")\n",
+ "display(top_decreases)\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 12,
+ "metadata": {},
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+ "\n",
+ " aca_baseline aca_reform weight \n",
+ "600 0.0 0.0 36551.855469 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 12,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "df_outputs[df_outputs['household_id'] == 4428]\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 13,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: $2,666.88\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# 0. Make sure net_change exists\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# 1. Flag households with any change\n",
+ "mask = df_outputs[\"net_change\"] != 0 # True for ↑ or ↓\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted mean among those households\n",
+ "avg_net_change = (\n",
+ " (df_outputs.loc[mask, \"net_change\"] * df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_outputs.loc[mask, \"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with any change: \"\n",
+ " f\"${avg_net_change:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 14,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both baseline and reform: $1,687.69\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Keep only households with a PTC in *both* scenarios\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "mask_both_ptc = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] > 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n",
+ "df_dual_ptc = df_outputs[mask_both_ptc]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "avg_net_change_dual_hh = (\n",
+ " (df_dual_ptc[\"net_change\"] * df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_dual_ptc[\"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households with a PTC in both \"\n",
+ " f\"baseline and reform: ${avg_net_change_dual_hh:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 15,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC under the reform: $5,972.71\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 0. Ensure supporting columns exist (already done above)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "df_outputs[\"net_change\"] = df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] - df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Keep only households that *gain* a PTC (reform > 0, baseline == 0)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "mask_reform_only = (df_outputs[\"aca_baseline\"] == 0) & (df_outputs[\"aca_reform\"] > 0)\n",
+ "df_reform_only = df_outputs[mask_reform_only]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted average of the net change (household perspective)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "avg_net_change_reform_only_hh = (\n",
+ " (df_reform_only[\"net_change\"] * df_reform_only[\"weight\"]).sum()\n",
+ " / df_reform_only[\"weight\"].sum()\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Average weighted PTC change among households that newly receive a PTC \"\n",
+ " f\"under the reform: ${avg_net_change_reform_only_hh:,.2f}\")\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ "execution_count": 16,
+ "metadata": {},
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+ }
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+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Pull household-level results\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# ACA PTC (baseline and reform)\n",
+ "ptc_base = baseline.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "ptc_reform = reformed.calculate(\"aca_ptc\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Household weights (same for both sims)\n",
+ "hh_wt = baseline.calculate(\"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted sum of the change\n",
+ "# -------------------------------\n",
+ "weighted_total_change = ptc_reform - ptc_base\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Optional: average change per household\n",
+ "weighted_total_change.sum()/1e9"
+ ]
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+ "source": [
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# Brand hex codes (one-to-one with style.colors)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "COLOR_BLUE = \"#2C6496\" # style.colors.BLUE / BLUE_PRIMARY\n",
+ "COLOR_BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\" # style.colors.BLUE_LIGHT / BLUE_95\n",
+ "COLOR_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\" # style.colors.LIGHT_GRAY\n",
+ "COLOR_MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\" # style.colors.MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY\n",
+ "COLOR_DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\" # style.colors.DARK_GRAY\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ––– choose colours for positive vs. negative average bars –––\n",
+ "POS_COLOR = COLOR_BLUE\n",
+ "NEG_COLOR = COLOR_DARK_GRAY\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 1. Pull baseline / reform net income + weights\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "net_base = baseline.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "net_reform = reformed.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_net_income_including_health_benefits\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "weights = baseline.calculate(\n",
+ " \"household_weight\", map_to=\"household\", period=2026\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"net_base\": net_base,\n",
+ " \"delta\": net_reform - net_base,\n",
+ " \"weight\": weights,\n",
+ "})\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 2. Weighted decile edges (baseline ranking)\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "def wquantile(values, qs, w):\n",
+ " srt = np.argsort(values)\n",
+ " values, w = values[srt], w[srt]\n",
+ " cum_w = np.cumsum(w) / np.sum(w)\n",
+ " return np.interp(qs, cum_w, values)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "edges = wquantile(df[\"net_base\"].values,\n",
+ " np.linspace(0, 1, 11), df[\"weight\"].values)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "df[\"decile\"] = pd.cut(df[\"net_base\"],\n",
+ " bins=edges,\n",
+ " labels=np.arange(1, 11),\n",
+ " include_lowest=True)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 3. Weighted average Δnet-income by decile\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "decile_avg = (\n",
+ " df.groupby(\"decile\")\n",
+ " .apply(lambda g: np.average(g[\"delta\"], weights=g[\"weight\"]))\n",
+ " .reset_index(name=\"avg_change\")\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 4. Use brand colours: blue if gain, dark-gray if loss\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "bar_colors = [\n",
+ " POS_COLOR if v >= 0 else NEG_COLOR\n",
+ " for v in decile_avg[\"avg_change\"]\n",
+ "]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "# 5. Plot\n",
+ "# ------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
+ "fig = go.Figure(\n",
+ " data=[\n",
+ " go.Bar(\n",
+ " x=decile_avg[\"decile\"].astype(int),\n",
+ " y=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"],\n",
+ " marker_color=bar_colors,\n",
+ " text=decile_avg[\"avg_change\"].apply(lambda v: f\"${v:,.0f}\"),\n",
+ " textposition=\"inside\",\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " ],\n",
+ " layout=dict(\n",
+ " title=\"Impact of Extending IRA PTC Expansion by Income Decile – 2026\",\n",
+ " xaxis_title=\"Income Decile\",\n",
+ " yaxis_title=\"Average change in household net income ($)\",\n",
+ " showlegend=False,\n",
+ " )\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_color=\"black\")\n",
+ "fig.show()\n",
+ "fig.update_xaxes(dtick=1) # show 1-10 instead of only the evens\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 18,
+ "id": "1jhns1uinylj",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Number of households gaining PTC under reform: 1100\n",
+ "Weighted count: 3,503,693\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average reform PTC for these households: $5,707.33\n",
+ "Weighted average reform PTC: $5,972.71\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's analyze the households affected by the ACA reform\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# First, let's look at households that gain PTC under reform but had none in baseline\n",
+ "gained_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households gaining PTC under reform: {len(gained_ptc)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage reform PTC for these households: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted average reform PTC: ${(gained_ptc['aca_reform'] * gained_ptc['weight']).sum() / gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.2f}\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 20,
+ "id": "qzjyh3eo44",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Income percentiles across all households:\n",
+ " 25th percentile: $6,159\n",
+ " 50th percentile: $68,947\n",
+ " 75th percentile: $172,785\n",
+ " 90th percentile: $504,951\n",
+ " 95th percentile: $2,181,010\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "count 1.100000e+03\n",
+ "mean 5.555715e+05\n",
+ "std 4.699500e+06\n",
+ "min 0.000000e+00\n",
+ "25% 7.411113e+04\n",
+ "50% 1.099418e+05\n",
+ "75% 1.631940e+05\n",
+ "max 1.033826e+08\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n",
+ "============================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
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+ "34720 149164 OK 76835.164062 26118.769531 1.0 \n",
+ "19738 84350 CA 88482.460938 25993.980469 1.0 \n",
+ "40316 173580 CA 102149.837891 25538.492188 1.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Num_Dependents weight \n",
+ "21655 0.0 0.000351 \n",
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+ ]
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n",
+ "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n",
+ "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n",
+ "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n",
+ "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n",
+ "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n",
+ " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n",
+ "display(top_gainers)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 21,
+ "id": "6ngx1hex7d7",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Income percentiles across all households:\n",
+ " 25th percentile: $6,159\n",
+ " 50th percentile: $68,947\n",
+ " 75th percentile: $172,785\n",
+ " 90th percentile: $504,951\n",
+ " 95th percentile: $2,181,010\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "count 1.100000e+03\n",
+ "mean 5.555715e+05\n",
+ "std 4.699500e+06\n",
+ "min 0.000000e+00\n",
+ "25% 7.411113e+04\n",
+ "50% 1.099418e+05\n",
+ "75% 1.631940e+05\n",
+ "max 1.033826e+08\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "============================================================\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\n",
+ "============================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ "40316 173580 CA 102149.837891 25538.492188 1.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " Num_Dependents weight \n",
+ "21655 0.0 0.000351 \n",
+ "20926 2.0 2193.554443 \n",
+ "16135 3.0 1964.266357 \n",
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+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 21,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's continue without matplotlib\n",
+ "# Add income deciles to the gained_ptc dataframe\n",
+ "gained_ptc_with_income = gained_ptc.copy()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate weighted income percentiles for context\n",
+ "income_percentiles = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], [25, 50, 75, 90, 95])\n",
+ "print(\"Income percentiles across all households:\")\n",
+ "for i, pct in enumerate([25, 50, 75, 90, 95]):\n",
+ " print(f\" {pct}th percentile: ${income_percentiles[i]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Income distribution of households GAINING PTC under reform:\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(gained_ptc_with_income['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*60)\n",
+ "print(\"Top 10 households by PTC gain (sorted by reform PTC amount):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*60)\n",
+ "top_gainers = gained_ptc_with_income.nlargest(10, 'aca_reform')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_reform', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_gainers"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 22,
+ "id": "fbg7gtwvt09",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\n",
+ "Number of households: 0\n",
+ "Weighted count: 0\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average baseline PTC: $nan\n",
+ "Average reform PTC: $nan\n",
+ "Average loss: $nan\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Income distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\n",
+ "count 0.0\n",
+ "mean NaN\n",
+ "std NaN\n",
+ "min NaN\n",
+ "25% NaN\n",
+ "50% NaN\n",
+ "75% NaN\n",
+ "max NaN\n",
+ "Name: Employment_Income, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Top 10 households by PTC loss:\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " \n",
+ " | \n",
+ " household_id | \n",
+ " State | \n",
+ " Employment_Income | \n",
+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ " net_change | \n",
+ " weight | \n",
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+ },
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+ "metadata": {},
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+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Now let's look at households losing PTC or seeing reduced PTC\n",
+ "lost_or_reduced = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['net_change'] < 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Households LOSING or SEEING REDUCED PTC:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households: {len(lost_or_reduced)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {lost_or_reduced['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${lost_or_reduced['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average loss: ${lost_or_reduced['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Income distribution\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution of households losing PTC benefits:\")\n",
+ "print(lost_or_reduced['Employment_Income'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Top losers\n",
+ "print(\"\\nTop 10 households by PTC loss:\")\n",
+ "top_losers = lost_or_reduced.nsmallest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_losers"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "id": "y1a0d1tqy9n",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\n",
+ "Number of households: 3406\n",
+ "Weighted count: 11,828,817\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Average baseline PTC: $7,582.03\n",
+ "Average reform PTC: $9,510.45\n",
+ "Average change: $1,928.42\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Distribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\n",
+ "count 3406.000000\n",
+ "mean 1928.417004\n",
+ "std 1464.484689\n",
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+ "75% 2209.899292\n",
+ "max 24195.677979\n",
+ "Name: net_change, dtype: float64\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Top 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\n"
+ ]
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+ " WY | \n",
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+ " 7641.085938 | \n",
+ " 23462.459961 | \n",
+ " 15821.374023 | \n",
+ " 1604.936035 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 36802 | \n",
+ " 159175 | \n",
+ " WY | \n",
+ " 322659.273438 | \n",
+ " 6483.185059 | \n",
+ " 22133.864258 | \n",
+ " 15650.679199 | \n",
+ " 1445.953613 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 20237 | \n",
+ " 85992 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 264716.572266 | \n",
+ " 2762.978271 | \n",
+ " 17937.049805 | \n",
+ " 15174.071533 | \n",
+ " 5193.151367 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ " 39405 | \n",
+ " 170489 | \n",
+ " CA | \n",
+ " 200459.942383 | \n",
+ " 3582.745850 | \n",
+ " 17706.862793 | \n",
+ " 14124.116943 | \n",
+ " 0.002236 | \n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ],
+ "text/plain": [
+ " household_id State Employment_Income aca_baseline aca_reform \\\n",
+ "25895 109280 IL 135262.814827 2166.071045 26361.749023 \n",
+ "21501 95388 CT 229315.603271 2461.534180 25936.906494 \n",
+ "20625 88926 HI 119508.789062 3365.458740 25774.730469 \n",
+ "6106 22572 WI 91929.835449 5390.636230 26178.041016 \n",
+ "15170 63406 TX 56307.025391 3461.937988 23926.217285 \n",
+ "32728 138331 KY 143819.542969 2214.557861 20885.525879 \n",
+ "16147 69708 WY 40219.304688 7641.085938 23462.459961 \n",
+ "36802 159175 WY 322659.273438 6483.185059 22133.864258 \n",
+ "20237 85992 CA 264716.572266 2762.978271 17937.049805 \n",
+ "39405 170489 CA 200459.942383 3582.745850 17706.862793 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " net_change weight \n",
+ "25895 24195.677979 0.005656 \n",
+ "21501 23475.372314 0.000415 \n",
+ "20625 22409.271729 729.324707 \n",
+ "6106 20787.404785 6035.339844 \n",
+ "15170 20464.279297 36817.671875 \n",
+ "32728 18670.968018 0.046630 \n",
+ "16147 15821.374023 1604.936035 \n",
+ "36802 15650.679199 1445.953613 \n",
+ "20237 15174.071533 5193.151367 \n",
+ "39405 14124.116943 0.002236 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 23,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Interesting - no households lose PTC! Let's look at those who keep their PTC but see changes\n",
+ "kept_ptc = df_outputs[(df_outputs['aca_baseline'] > 0) & (df_outputs['aca_reform'] > 0)]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Households with PTC in BOTH baseline and reform:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Number of households: {len(kept_ptc)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {kept_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAverage baseline PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average reform PTC: ${kept_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Average change: ${kept_ptc['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show distribution of changes\n",
+ "print(\"\\nDistribution of PTC changes for households with PTC in both scenarios:\")\n",
+ "print(kept_ptc['net_change'].describe())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Households with biggest increases among those who already had PTC\n",
+ "print(\"\\nTop 10 PTC increases among households who already had PTC:\")\n",
+ "top_increases = kept_ptc.nlargest(10, 'net_change')[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']]\n",
+ "top_increases"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 24,
+ "id": "7pukgyq18zt",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Households between 350-450% FPL: 3110\n",
+ "Weighted count: 12,367,979\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Below 400% FPL (350-400%): 1565 households\n",
+ " Average baseline PTC: $1,110.95\n",
+ " Average reform PTC: $1,612.20\n",
+ " Average change: $501.25\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Above 400% FPL (400-450%): 1545 households\n",
+ " Average baseline PTC: $686.16\n",
+ " Average reform PTC: $1,385.85\n",
+ " Average change: $699.69\n",
+ "\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\n",
+ "======================================================================\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ " aca_baseline | \n",
+ " aca_reform | \n",
+ " net_change | \n",
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+ " household_id State Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n",
+ "12 91 ME 85344.212891 403.900676 0.0 \n",
+ "61 495 ME 105351.593262 395.315547 0.0 \n",
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+ "476 3945 MA 106868.429688 401.007241 0.0 \n",
+ "661 4662 MA 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n",
+ "806 5462 RI 106868.433594 401.007256 0.0 \n",
+ "907 6168 CT 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n",
+ "1081 6785 NY 84344.468750 399.169279 0.0 \n",
+ "1104 6872 NY 85035.101562 402.437774 0.0 \n",
+ "1106 6874 NY 62052.640625 398.539760 0.0 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " aca_reform net_change weight \n",
+ "12 0.0 0.0 4.466252 \n",
+ "61 0.0 0.0 17.447075 \n",
+ "281 0.0 0.0 332.319000 \n",
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+ "1106 0.0 0.0 4.106772 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 24,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's calculate approximate FPL levels for households to understand where they fall\n",
+ "# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations based on current trends)\n",
+ "fpl_2026 = {\n",
+ " 1: 15570, # Single person\n",
+ " 2: 21130, # Couple\n",
+ " 3: 26650, # Family of 3\n",
+ " 4: 32200, # Family of 4\n",
+ " 5: 37750, # Family of 5\n",
+ " 6: 43300, # Family of 6\n",
+ " 7: 48850, # Family of 7\n",
+ " 8: 54400, # Family of 8\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate household size and FPL ratio\n",
+ "df_outputs['household_size'] = 2 + df_outputs['Num_Dependents'] # Assuming married couples or singles with deps\n",
+ "df_outputs['household_size'] = df_outputs.apply(\n",
+ " lambda row: (1 + row['Married'] + row['Num_Dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['Married']) else 1,\n",
+ " axis=1\n",
+ ")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Map FPL based on household size\n",
+ "df_outputs['fpl_threshold'] = df_outputs['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400))\n",
+ "df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] = (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] / df_outputs['fpl_threshold']) * 100\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Now let's analyze the cliff effect around 400% FPL\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"ANALYSIS OF THE 400% FPL CLIFF EFFECT\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Households just below and above 400% FPL\n",
+ "near_cliff = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)]\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL: {len(near_cliff)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\"Weighted count: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Split by those above and below 400% FPL\n",
+ "below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400]\n",
+ "above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%): {len(below_400)} households\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%): {len(above_400)} households\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Show some examples\n",
+ "print(\"\\n\" + \"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"EXAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS AT THE CLIFF (395-405% FPL):\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "cliff_examples = df_outputs[(df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] >= 395) & (df_outputs['fpl_ratio'] <= 405)]\n",
+ "cliff_examples_display = cliff_examples[['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n",
+ " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'weight']].head(10)\n",
+ "cliff_examples_display"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "id": "hmhah1unlwn",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "ename": "ValueError",
+ "evalue": "Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges",
+ "output_type": "error",
+ "traceback": [
+ "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
+ "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
+ "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[25], line 3\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Calculate income deciles\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 3\u001b[0m df_outputs[\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m] \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mpd\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mqcut\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mdf_outputs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mEmployment_Income\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m10\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mrange\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m1\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m11\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mdrop\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 5\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Group by decile and show the effect\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m decile_analysis \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m df_outputs\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mgroupby(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mincome_decile\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39magg({\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mEmployment_Income\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: [\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmin\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmax\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m],\n\u001b[1;32m 8\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mfpl_ratio\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mmean\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 12\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mweight\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124msum\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 13\u001b[0m })\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mround(\u001b[38;5;241m2\u001b[39m)\n",
+ "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:340\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mqcut\u001b[0;34m(x, q, labels, retbins, precision, duplicates)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 336\u001b[0m quantiles \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mlinspace(\u001b[38;5;241m0\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m, q \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m) \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m is_integer(q) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m q\n\u001b[1;32m 338\u001b[0m bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m x_idx\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mto_series()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdropna()\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mquantile(quantiles)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 340\u001b[0m fac, bins \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 341\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mx_idx\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 342\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mIndex\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbins\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 343\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mlabels\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 344\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mprecision\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 345\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43minclude_lowest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mTrue\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 346\u001b[0m \u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mduplicates\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 347\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 349\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m _postprocess_for_cut(fac, bins, retbins, original)\n",
+ "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pandas/core/reshape/tile.py:493\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36m_bins_to_cuts\u001b[0;34m(x_idx, bins, right, labels, precision, include_lowest, duplicates, ordered)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 491\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 492\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;241m!=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(bins) \u001b[38;5;241m-\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1\u001b[39m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 493\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\n\u001b[1;32m 494\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mBin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\n\u001b[1;32m 495\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 497\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mgetattr\u001b[39m(labels, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mdtype\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m), CategoricalDtype):\n\u001b[1;32m 498\u001b[0m labels \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m Categorical(\n\u001b[1;32m 499\u001b[0m labels,\n\u001b[1;32m 500\u001b[0m categories\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mlabels \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mset\u001b[39m(labels)) \u001b[38;5;241m==\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mlen\u001b[39m(labels) \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m,\n\u001b[1;32m 501\u001b[0m ordered\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mordered,\n\u001b[1;32m 502\u001b[0m )\n",
+ "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Bin labels must be one fewer than the number of bin edges"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's look more specifically at the income deciles to see where the cliff effect shows up\n",
+ "# Calculate income deciles\n",
+ "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, labels=range(1, 11), duplicates='drop')\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Group by decile and show the effect\n",
+ "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('income_decile').agg({\n",
+ " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n",
+ " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'net_change': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'weight': 'sum'\n",
+ "}).round(2)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n",
+ "decile_analysis"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "id": "w09m1i1mc5q",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\n",
+ "======================================================================\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Income ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "data": {
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+ " aca_baseline | \n",
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+ " net_change | \n",
+ " weight | \n",
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+ "text/plain": [
+ " Employment_Income fpl_ratio aca_baseline \\\n",
+ " min max mean mean mean \n",
+ "decile_num \n",
+ "1 0.00 22082.70 3081.23 16.50 481.01 \n",
+ "2 22096.56 40219.30 31811.30 167.52 1638.77 \n",
+ "3 40220.45 59168.34 50102.24 254.53 1575.92 \n",
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+ "5 80438.61 106574.53 93253.97 434.80 1303.70 \n",
+ "6 106597.34 142491.25 122908.07 554.42 816.63 \n",
+ "7 142491.25 205693.01 169652.75 727.25 489.02 \n",
+ "8 205693.02 3305428.97 382158.51 1548.38 210.36 \n",
+ "\n",
+ " aca_reform net_change weight \n",
+ " mean mean sum \n",
+ "decile_num \n",
+ "1 618.01 136.99 56060974.39 \n",
+ "2 1989.05 350.27 18267145.22 \n",
+ "3 2062.44 486.52 13547056.92 \n",
+ "4 2029.91 592.66 12499143.93 \n",
+ "5 2060.30 756.60 11057517.34 \n",
+ "6 1518.36 701.72 13853349.38 \n",
+ "7 1177.16 688.14 10689611.79 \n",
+ "8 482.04 271.67 11524346.53 "
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 25,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Fix the decile calculation\n",
+ "# Calculate income deciles without explicit labels to avoid the error\n",
+ "df_outputs['income_decile'] = pd.qcut(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], 10, duplicates='drop')\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get unique deciles and sort them\n",
+ "deciles = sorted(df_outputs['income_decile'].unique())\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create a mapping to simpler labels\n",
+ "decile_map = {d: i+1 for i, d in enumerate(deciles)}\n",
+ "df_outputs['decile_num'] = df_outputs['income_decile'].map(decile_map)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Group by decile and show the effect\n",
+ "decile_analysis = df_outputs.groupby('decile_num').agg({\n",
+ " 'Employment_Income': ['min', 'max', 'mean'],\n",
+ " 'fpl_ratio': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_baseline': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'aca_reform': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'net_change': 'mean',\n",
+ " 'weight': 'sum'\n",
+ "}).round(2)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"PTC EFFECTS BY INCOME DECILE\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome ranges and average PTC changes by decile:\")\n",
+ "decile_analysis"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "id": "fbfun838g2",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Let's look at where in the data the 9th decile falls (the one from the chart)\n",
+ "# Since we only have 8 groups due to duplicates being dropped, let's recalculate properly\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# First, let's understand the actual income distribution better\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n",
+ "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n",
+ "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n",
+ "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n",
+ " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# The 9th decile should be roughly between 80th and 90th percentile\n",
+ "ninth_decile = df_outputs[(df_outputs['Employment_Income'] >= income_pcts[7]) & \n",
+ " (df_outputs['Employment_Income'] < income_pcts[8])]\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\n9th Decile (80-90th percentile):\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Income range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Number of households: {len(ninth_decile)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Now let's see WHO specifically gains in the 9th decile\n",
+ "ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100] # Gains more than $100\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(f\"\\nHouseholds in 9th decile with gains > $100:\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers)}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['Employment_Income'].mean():,.0f}\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%\")\n",
+ "print(f\" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Look at specific examples\n",
+ "print(\"\\nExample households in 9th decile with large gains:\")\n",
+ "examples = ninth_decile_gainers.nlargest(5, 'net_change')[\n",
+ " ['household_id', 'State', 'Employment_Income', 'fpl_ratio', \n",
+ " 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'net_change', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents']\n",
+ "]\n",
+ "examples"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 26,
+ "id": "inz803s5rlm",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Checking available variables:\n",
+ "df_outputs exists: True\n",
+ "df_outputs shape: (21607, 14)\n",
+ "Columns: ['household_id', 'State', 'Married', 'Num_Dependents', 'Employment_Income', 'aca_baseline', 'aca_reform', 'weight', 'net_change', 'household_size', 'fpl_threshold', 'fpl_ratio', 'income_decile', 'decile_num']\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Check if the dataframe exists and has the needed columns\n",
+ "print(\"Checking available variables:\")\n",
+ "print(f\"df_outputs exists: {'df_outputs' in locals()}\")\n",
+ "if 'df_outputs' in locals():\n",
+ " print(f\"df_outputs shape: {df_outputs.shape}\")\n",
+ " print(f\"Columns: {list(df_outputs.columns)}\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "id": "qhtylcg4wz",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Understanding the 9th decile concentration\n",
+ "import numpy as np\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Get percentiles to understand income distribution\n",
+ "percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]\n",
+ "income_pcts = np.percentile(df_outputs['Employment_Income'], percentiles)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"UNDERSTANDING THE 9TH DECILE CONCENTRATION\")\n",
+ "print(\"=\"*70)\n",
+ "print(\"\\nIncome distribution percentiles:\")\n",
+ "for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):\n",
+ " print(f\" {p}th percentile: ${val:,.0f}\")"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.10.16"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}
diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb
index ede0341..8dded8f 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform.ipynb
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 2,
+ "execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 3,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 4,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 5,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -86,16 +86,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "35.9928663871468"
+ "19.8896926531077"
]
},
- "execution_count": 6,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -106,16 +106,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 7,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "40.21955536317878"
+ "31.542351631973787"
]
},
- "execution_count": 7,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -126,16 +126,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 8,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "76.21242175032557"
+ "51.43204428508149"
]
},
- "execution_count": 8,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -146,7 +146,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 9,
+ "execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 10,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -166,7 +166,7 @@
"0.0"
]
},
- "execution_count": 10,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -177,7 +177,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 11,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -188,7 +188,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 12,
+ "execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -197,7 +197,7 @@
"0.0"
]
},
- "execution_count": 12,
+ "execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -208,7 +208,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 13,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -217,16 +217,16 @@
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{
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- "execution_count": 14,
+ "execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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- "74.6098250482967"
+ "41.48141013389625"
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+ "execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -237,7 +237,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 15,
+ "execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -246,16 +246,16 @@
},
{
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+ "execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "95.18610952164795"
+ "85.14359348561398"
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- "execution_count": 16,
+ "execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -267,16 +267,16 @@
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{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 17,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "139.72365076048433"
+ "170.0861678993786"
]
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- "execution_count": 17,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -287,16 +287,16 @@
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{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "19.86982053600405"
+ "15.364080432275241"
]
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- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -309,16 +309,16 @@
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{
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- "execution_count": 19,
+ "execution_count": 18,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "20.1975184763353"
+ "15.617468693659635"
]
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- "execution_count": 19,
+ "execution_count": 18,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -331,16 +331,16 @@
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{
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- "execution_count": 20,
+ "execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "20.31200607083411"
+ "15.705994718609649"
]
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- "execution_count": 20,
+ "execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -353,16 +353,16 @@
},
{
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- "execution_count": 21,
+ "execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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- "66.06914323356507"
+ "61.45083694065887"
]
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- "execution_count": 21,
+ "execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -375,16 +375,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 22,
+ "execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "351.4008758453535"
+ "356.50153524161357"
]
},
- "execution_count": 22,
+ "execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -397,16 +397,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 23,
+ "execution_count": 22,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "2024 0.051032864873153116\n",
+ "2024 0.054597097187702254\n",
"2025 1.0\n",
- "2026 0.05103286425002665\n"
+ "2026 0.05459709726223681\n"
]
}
],
@@ -419,16 +419,16 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 24,
+ "execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
- "219563611137.93384"
+ "131288173629.472"
]
},
- "execution_count": 24,
+ "execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -441,24 +441,9 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 27,
+ "execution_count": null,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "ename": "ValueError",
- "evalue": "Variable medicaid does not exist.",
- "output_type": "error",
- "traceback": [
- "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
- "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
- "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[27], line 1\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 1\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mmedicaid\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mperson\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2024\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msum()\n\u001b[1;32m 2\u001b[0m baseline_medicaid\u001b[38;5;241m/\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m1e6\u001b[39m\n",
- "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/microsimulation.py:54\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mMicrosimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, use_weights, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 52\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melif\u001b[39;00m period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m 53\u001b[0m period \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m get_period(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdefault_calculation_period)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 54\u001b[0m values \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcalculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmap_to\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_enums\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 55\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m use_weights:\n\u001b[1;32m 56\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m values\n",
- "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:477\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation.calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period, map_to, decode_enums)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 474\u001b[0m np\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mrandom\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mseed(\u001b[38;5;28mhash\u001b[39m(variable_name \u001b[38;5;241m+\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(period)) \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m1000000\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 476\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 477\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_calculate\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mvariable_name\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mperiod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m 478\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28misinstance\u001b[39m(result, EnumArray) \u001b[38;5;129;01mand\u001b[39;00m decode_enums:\n\u001b[1;32m 479\u001b[0m result \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m result\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdecode_to_str()\n",
- "File \u001b[0;32m~/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/policyengine_core/simulations/simulation.py:602\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSimulation._calculate\u001b[0;34m(self, variable_name, period)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;250m\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 592\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03mCalculate the variable ``variable_name`` for the period ``period``, using the variable formula if it exists.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 593\u001b[0m \n\u001b[0;32m (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 599\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m ArrayLike: The calculated variable.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 600\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 601\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m variable_name \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01min\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtax_benefit_system\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mvariables:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 602\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mValueError\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124mf\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mVariable \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{\u001b[39;00mvariable_name\u001b[38;5;132;01m}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m does not exist.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[1;32m 603\u001b[0m population \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_variable_population(variable_name)\n\u001b[1;32m 604\u001b[0m holder \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m population\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mget_holder(variable_name)\n",
- "\u001b[0;31mValueError\u001b[0m: Variable medicaid does not exist."
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": []
}
],
diff --git a/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
index e761e03..d5bbf99 100644
--- a/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
+++ b/us/medicaid/aca_reform_households.ipynb
@@ -2,9 +2,18 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 11,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
"from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
@@ -16,7 +25,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 12,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -52,7 +61,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 13,
+ "execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -149,7 +158,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 14,
+ "execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -228,7 +237,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 15,
+ "execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -250,7 +259,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 16,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -313,7 +322,7 @@
"2 400 % FPL ($84,600) 84600 0.000000 2899.201172"
]
},
- "execution_count": 16,
+ "execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -385,7 +394,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 17,
+ "execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -477,7 +486,7 @@
"3 0.000000 829.929932 0.000000 "
]
},
- "execution_count": 17,
+ "execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -577,7 +586,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 18,
+ "execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -622,7 +631,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 19,
+ "execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
@@ -634,7 +643,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 20,
+ "execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -14432,11 +14441,11 @@
"data": [
{
"line": {
- "color": "#808080",
+ "color": "#2C6496",
"width": 2
},
"mode": "lines",
- "name": "CHIP (Baseline)",
+ "name": "ACA PTC (Baseline)",
"type": "scatter",
"x": [
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"# Add baseline traces (solid lines)\n",
- "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_texas, \n",
- " y=baseline_texas_per_capita_chip, \n",
- " mode='lines', \n",
- " name='CHIP (Baseline)', \n",
- " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2)\n",
- "))\n",
"\n",
"fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_texas, \n",
@@ -28313,22 +21861,7 @@
" line=dict(color=BLUE_PRIMARY, width=2)\n",
"))\n",
"\n",
- "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_texas, \n",
- " y=baseline_texas_medicaid_cost, \n",
- " mode='lines', \n",
- " name='Medicaid (Baseline)', \n",
- " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2)\n",
- "))\n",
"\n",
- "# Add reform traces (dotted lines)\n",
- "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_texas, \n",
- " y=reform_texas_per_capita_chip, \n",
- " mode='lines', \n",
- " name='CHIP (Reform)', \n",
- " line=dict(color=GRAY, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
- "))\n",
"\n",
"fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
" x=household_income_texas, \n",
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"))\n",
"\n",
- "fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
- " x=household_income_texas, \n",
- " y=reform_texas_medicaid_cost,\n",
- " mode='lines', \n",
- " name='Medicaid (Reform)', \n",
- " line=dict(color=TEAL_ACCENT, width=2, dash='dot')\n",
- "))\n",
+ "\n",
"\n",
"# Add total lines\n",
"fig_texas.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n",
@@ -28387,7 +21914,7 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 27,
+ "execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
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],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
- "display_name": "base",
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
@@ -50093,7 +43620,7 @@
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
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+ "version": "3.10.16"
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},
"nbformat": 4,
diff --git a/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py b/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8334766
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/medicaid/analyze_aca_cliff.py
@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python
+"""
+Analyze ACA cliff effects from the IRA reform analysis
+This script examines why effects are concentrated in the 9th income decile
+"""
+
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+from policyengine_us import Microsimulation
+from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform
+
+print("Loading data and setting up simulations...")
+
+# Define the reform (same as in notebook)
+reform = Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[0].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[1].amount": {
+ "2025-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[2].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[3].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.02
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[4].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.04
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[5].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.06
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_phase_out_rate[6].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.085
+ },
+ "gov.aca.ptc_income_eligibility[2].amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True
+ }
+}, country_id="us")
+
+# Load microsimulations
+print("Loading microsimulation data (this may take a moment)...")
+baseline = Microsimulation(dataset="hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5")
+reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset="hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5")
+
+# Calculate key variables
+year = 2026
+print(f"\nCalculating values for year {year}...")
+
+employment_income = baseline.calculate("employment_income", map_to="household", period=year)
+num_dependents = baseline.calculate("tax_unit_dependents", map_to="household", period=year)
+married = baseline.calculate("is_married", map_to="household", period=year)
+aca_baseline = baseline.calculate("aca_ptc", map_to="household", period=year)
+aca_reform = reformed.calculate("aca_ptc", map_to="household", period=year)
+weights = baseline.calculate("household_weight", period=year)
+state = baseline.calculate("state_code", map_to="household", period=year)
+
+# Create DataFrame
+df = pd.DataFrame({
+ "employment_income": employment_income,
+ "num_dependents": num_dependents,
+ "married": married,
+ "aca_baseline": aca_baseline,
+ "aca_reform": aca_reform,
+ "weight": weights,
+ "state": state,
+ "net_change": aca_reform - aca_baseline
+})
+
+print(f"Total households in dataset: {len(df):,}")
+print(f"Weighted household count: {df['weight'].sum():,.0f}")
+
+# Calculate FPL ratios
+print("\nCalculating FPL ratios...")
+# 2026 FPL estimates (rough approximations)
+fpl_2026 = {
+ 1: 15570, # Single person
+ 2: 21130, # Couple
+ 3: 26650, # Family of 3
+ 4: 32200, # Family of 4
+ 5: 37750, # Family of 5
+ 6: 43300, # Family of 6
+ 7: 48850, # Family of 7
+ 8: 54400, # Family of 8
+}
+
+# Calculate household size
+df['household_size'] = df.apply(
+ lambda row: int(1 + row['married'] + row['num_dependents']) if not pd.isna(row['married']) else 1,
+ axis=1
+)
+
+# Map FPL based on household size
+df['fpl_threshold'] = df['household_size'].map(lambda x: fpl_2026.get(min(int(x), 8), 54400))
+df['fpl_ratio'] = (df['employment_income'] / df['fpl_threshold']) * 100
+
+# Analyze income percentiles
+print("\n" + "="*70)
+print("INCOME DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS")
+print("="*70)
+
+percentiles = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99]
+income_pcts = np.percentile(df['employment_income'], percentiles)
+
+print("\nIncome distribution percentiles:")
+for p, val in zip(percentiles, income_pcts):
+ # Calculate approx FPL for a family of 3 at this income
+ fpl_pct = (val / 26650) * 100
+ print(f" {p:2d}th percentile: ${val:8,.0f} (~{fpl_pct:3.0f}% FPL for family of 3)")
+
+# Analyze the 9th decile specifically
+print("\n" + "="*70)
+print("9TH DECILE ANALYSIS (80th-90th percentile)")
+print("="*70)
+
+ninth_decile = df[(df['employment_income'] >= income_pcts[7]) &
+ (df['employment_income'] < income_pcts[8])]
+
+print(f"\nIncome range: ${income_pcts[7]:,.0f} - ${income_pcts[8]:,.0f}")
+print(f"Number of households: {len(ninth_decile):,}")
+print(f"Weighted count: {ninth_decile['weight'].sum():,.0f}")
+print(f"Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%")
+print(f"Average baseline PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f"Average reform PTC: ${ninth_decile['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f"Average change: ${ninth_decile['net_change'].mean():,.2f}")
+
+# Analyze who gains in the 9th decile
+ninth_decile_gainers = ninth_decile[ninth_decile['net_change'] > 100]
+print(f"\nHouseholds in 9th decile gaining >$100 in PTC:")
+print(f" Count: {len(ninth_decile_gainers):,} ({100*len(ninth_decile_gainers)/len(ninth_decile):.1f}% of 9th decile)")
+print(f" Weighted count: {ninth_decile_gainers['weight'].sum():,.0f}")
+print(f" Average income: ${ninth_decile_gainers['employment_income'].mean():,.0f}")
+print(f" Average FPL ratio: {ninth_decile_gainers['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%")
+print(f" Average gain: ${ninth_decile_gainers['net_change'].mean():,.2f}")
+
+# Analyze the cliff at 400% FPL
+print("\n" + "="*70)
+print("400% FPL CLIFF ANALYSIS")
+print("="*70)
+
+# Households near the cliff
+near_cliff = df[(df['fpl_ratio'] >= 350) & (df['fpl_ratio'] <= 450)]
+below_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] <= 400]
+above_400 = near_cliff[near_cliff['fpl_ratio'] > 400]
+
+print(f"\nHouseholds between 350-450% FPL:")
+print(f" Total: {len(near_cliff):,} households")
+print(f" Weighted: {near_cliff['weight'].sum():,.0f}")
+
+print(f"\nBelow 400% FPL (350-400%):")
+print(f" Count: {len(below_400):,}")
+print(f" Average baseline PTC: ${below_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f" Average reform PTC: ${below_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f" Average change: ${below_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}")
+
+print(f"\nAbove 400% FPL (400-450%):")
+print(f" Count: {len(above_400):,}")
+print(f" Average baseline PTC: ${above_400['aca_baseline'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f" Average reform PTC: ${above_400['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}")
+print(f" Average change: ${above_400['net_change'].mean():,.2f}")
+
+# Who gains PTC under reform?
+print("\n" + "="*70)
+print("WHO GAINS PTC UNDER THE REFORM?")
+print("="*70)
+
+gained_ptc = df[(df['aca_baseline'] == 0) & (df['aca_reform'] > 0)]
+print(f"\nHouseholds gaining PTC (had $0, now have >$0):")
+print(f" Count: {len(gained_ptc):,}")
+print(f" Weighted: {gained_ptc['weight'].sum():,.0f}")
+print(f" Average income: ${gained_ptc['employment_income'].mean():,.0f}")
+print(f" Average FPL ratio: {gained_ptc['fpl_ratio'].mean():.1f}%")
+print(f" Average reform PTC: ${gained_ptc['aca_reform'].mean():,.2f}")
+
+# Income distribution of gainers
+gainers_by_percentile = []
+for i, (low, high) in enumerate(zip([0] + list(income_pcts[:-1]), income_pcts)):
+ mask = (gained_ptc['employment_income'] >= low) & (gained_ptc['employment_income'] < high)
+ count = mask.sum()
+ weighted = gained_ptc.loc[mask, 'weight'].sum()
+ gainers_by_percentile.append((f"{(i+1)*10}th", count, weighted))
+
+print("\nDistribution of PTC gainers by income percentile:")
+for pct, count, weighted in gainers_by_percentile:
+ if count > 0:
+ print(f" {pct:4s} percentile: {count:4,} households ({weighted:,.0f} weighted)")
+
+# Key insight summary
+print("\n" + "="*70)
+print("KEY INSIGHTS")
+print("="*70)
+print("""
+1. The 400% FPL threshold for a family of 3 in 2026 is approximately $106,600
+ - This falls in the 80th-90th income percentile (9th decile)
+
+2. Households just above 400% FPL currently get $0 in PTC due to the cliff
+ - The reform extends subsidies to them, capping premiums at 8.5% of income
+
+3. The 9th decile concentration occurs because:
+ - These households earn too much for current subsidies (>400% FPL)
+ - But would benefit significantly from the reform's extension
+ - Lower deciles (4-6) already receive subsidies under current law
+
+4. The "cliff" affects higher-income households than intuition might suggest
+ - It's not middle-class families at 200-300% FPL (they get subsidies)
+ - It's upper-middle-class families at 400-500% FPL who face the cliff
+""")
+
+print("\nAnalysis complete!")
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/us/medicaid/claude_help.md b/us/medicaid/claude_help.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f75acb9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/medicaid/claude_help.md
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+
+
+## Using Your Old Outputs as Ground Truth
+
+**Recreate key statistics and compare:**
+- Total ACA enrollment (you noted ~2M drop - that's a red flag)
+- Income distribution of enrollees
+- Average subsidy amounts by income level
+- Count of people near the subsidy cliff (138-400% FPL)
+
+**Reverse-engineer expected values:**
+- If effects were in deciles 4-6 before, calculate what income range that implied
+- Check if those income ranges in the new data still contain the population that should be affected by the cliff
+- The subsidy cliff at 400% FPL should hit people around $50-60k (single) or $100-120k (family of 4) - verify which decile that falls into now
+
+## Critical Checks Without Old Data
+
+**Sanity check the new results:**
+```python
+# Check income percentiles to see if decile 9 makes sense
+print(df.groupby('income_decile')['income'].describe())
+print(f"400% FPL for single: {fpl_single * 4}")
+print(f"400% FPL for family of 4: {fpl_family4 * 4}")
+
+# Verify ACA enrollment totals
+print(f"Total ACA enrollees: {df[df['aca_enrolled']==1]['weight'].sum()}")
+# Compare to known ~14-15 million marketplace enrollment
+```
+
+**Look for data/code misalignment:**
+- Variable name changes (income vs magi vs adjusted_income)
+- Changes in categorical coding (0/1 vs 1/2 for enrollment)
+- Unit changes (annual vs monthly income)
+- Weight scaling issues (person weights in thousands vs ones)
+
+## Most Likely Culprits
+
+Given your symptoms, check these first:
+
+1. **Income definition changed** - The decile shift suggests income might be calculated differently (e.g., excluding certain sources, or using post-tax instead of pre-tax)
+
+2. **Weight rescaling** - A 2M drop in enrollment could be a simple weight scaling issue
+
+3. **Sample universe** - The data team might have restricted to a different population (e.g., only tax filers, or excluded dependents)
+
+4. **Decile calculation scope** - Are you calculating deciles over the full population or just ACA-eligible? This could drastically shift which incomes fall in decile 9
+
+Would it help if I wrote some diagnostic code to check these specific issues? Also, what specific outputs did you document from your previous run - do you have things like mean income by decile, or counts of people at different FPL thresholds?
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb b/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..14142f2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/us/medicaid/old_dataset.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 1,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "/Users/daphnehansell/miniconda3/envs/policyengine/lib/python3.10/site-packages/tqdm/auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 4,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "sim = Microsimulation(dataset=\"/Users/daphnehansell/Documents/GitHub/analysis-notebooks/us/medicaid/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
+ " value weight\n",
+ "0 107805.242188 7.193183\n",
+ "1 67854.984375 5.331448\n",
+ "2 20952.380859 5.331448\n",
+ "3 1.457558 1523.087158\n",
+ "4 0.000000 1523.087158\n",
+ "... ... ...\n",
+ "56763 -1044.119141 0.019413\n",
+ "56764 31625.267578 0.001958\n",
+ "56765 15550.738281 0.002303\n",
+ "56766 24284.789062 0.002303\n",
+ "56767 86636.476562 0.003094\n",
+ "\n",
+ "[56768 rows x 2 columns]"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "sim.calculate('adjusted_gross_income')"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 8,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/plain": [
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+ "4 0.000000 1160.135986\n",
+ "... ... ...\n",
+ "77421 30575.771484 709.115173\n",
+ "77422 0.000000 586.208740\n",
+ "77423 26181.121094 387.369049\n",
+ "77424 110852.523438 387.369049\n",
+ "77425 120745.625000 723.155579\n",
+ "\n",
+ "[77426 rows x 2 columns]"
+ ]
+ },
+ "execution_count": 8,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "execute_result"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "sim_new = Microsimulation()\n",
+ "sim_new.calculate('adjusted_gross_income')"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": []
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "policyengine",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.10.16"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}
diff --git a/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb
index 01ac6ce..dbec8da 100644
--- a/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb
+++ b/us/nyt/ira_ptc.ipynb
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 4,
+ "execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
"traceback": [
"\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
"\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m Traceback (most recent call last)",
- "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[4], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m coverage_flag_2025 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline_2025\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mYEAR_FILTER\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m ptc_households \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mindex[coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mastype(\u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m)]\n",
+ "Cell \u001b[0;32mIn[2], line 2\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m 1\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# STEP 0 — run this right after you define baseline_2025\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 2\u001b[0m coverage_flag_2025 \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mbaseline_2025\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mcalculate(\n\u001b[1;32m 3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhas_marketplace_health_coverage\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, map_to\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mhousehold\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, period\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mYEAR_FILTER\n\u001b[1;32m 4\u001b[0m )\n\u001b[1;32m 6\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Convert to Boolean explicitly and keep only the TRUEs\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m 7\u001b[0m ptc_households \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mindex[coverage_flag_2025\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mastype(\u001b[38;5;28mbool\u001b[39m)]\n",
"\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'baseline_2025' is not defined"
]
}